Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks and Prediction Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Toronto Maple Leafs face the Tampa Bay Lightning with both teams on opposite ends of the standings as they return to action. The Maple Leafs are 27-21-9 and have the second-worst record in the Atlantic Division while the Lightning are 37-14-4 and have the best record in the division. Who will win this matchup? Check out our Maple Leafs vs Lightning prediction!
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Maple Leafs hope offense turns season around
The Maple Leafs are having a rough season despite their offense stepping up and scoring 3.28 goals per game. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares have scored 64 goals and 83 assists while Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Morgan Rielly have added 15 goals and 50 assists to open up the offense.
The offense has stepped up but the defense has let them down, allowing 3.39 goals per game. Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have combined for 5.4 defensive point shares but the rest of the unit has struggled, allowing opponents to find open shots on the net at will. The bright spot in the play of goaltender Joseph Woll, who has 9.3 goals saved above average.
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Key injury report for Maple Leafs
- Chris Tanev is on long-term injured reserve.
Tampa Bay has been incredible across the board
The Lightning are having a great season with their offense leading the way, scoring 3.55 goals per game. Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and Jake Guentzel have scored 82 goals and 123 assists while defenseman Darren Raddysh has added 17 goals and 35 assists from the point to open up the offense.
The offense has been great but the defense has also stepped up, allowing only 2.51 goals per game. JJ Moser and Darren Raddysh have combined for 8.8 defensive point shares while Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel have combined for 4.3 defensive point shares from the forward position to help out the defense. Additionally, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has been incredible with 21.6 goals saved above average.
Key injury report for Lightning
- Brayden Point (lower body) is on injured reserve.
- Anthony Cirelli is day-to-day.
- Victor Hedman is day-to-day.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Pick
Money Line Pick For Maple Leafs vs Lightning
- Lightning -1.5 (+110) (4 units)
The Maple Leafs look to return from the break with a win but the Lightning are one of the best teams in the NHL and look to dominate this game on both ends. The Lightning should pile on the goals with Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Lightning, who allow only 2.51 goals per game, should limit the Maple Leafs offense with Darren Raddysh, JJ Moser, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone while limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to make plenty of big saves. The Lightning should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win on their home ice.
Over/Under Pick For Maple Leafs vs Lightning
- Over 6.5 (5 Units)
Both teams have great offenses and this game looks to be a high-scoring one from the first period. The Maple Leafs, who average 3.28 goals per game, should create plenty of scoring chances with Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone while creating open shots with quick passes. The Lightning, who average 3.55 goals per game, should run up the score against the Maple Leafs, who allow 3.39 goals per game, with Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with effective puck movement while Darren Raddysh fires shots on the net from the point. The Over should cover in a high-scoring game controlled by both offenses.
Take the Over on 6.5 goals.
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