Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars, Picks and Prediction for Friday November 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC Hockey returns the day after Thanksgiving with the Dallas Stars (15-5-4) hosting the Utah Mammoth (12-9-3). These teams met four times last season, and Dallas took three of those contests, though each matchup was competitive. Check out our free NHL selections and other huge plays this weekend on Winners and Whiners.
Utah looking to bounce back
Utah enters this matchup with a 9–15 record on the puck line and a 10–13–1 record to the over/under. The Mammoth had a rough stretch from November 5 through November 20, dropping seven of nine games during that span. However, they’ve shown signs of stabilizing, winning two of their last three before falling 4–3 to Montreal on Wednesday. Utah has been competitive even in defeat, and they’ve tightened some of their defensive breakdowns.
Goaltender Karel Vejmelka has been steady, posting a 10–6–2 record with a 2.84 GAA and .886 save percentage. While the save percentage ranks in the lower tier of NHL starters, Utah compensates with a defense that allows only 24.4 shots per game, the best mark in the league.
Offensively, Utah averages 3.1 goals per game (15th) and generates nearly 29 shots per outing. Their biggest issue is the power play, which sits at just 13.8% (30th). Defensively, Utah allows 3.0 goals per game (16th).
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Dallas back from road trip
Dallas enters this matchup 10–14 on the puck line and 11–13 to the total. The Stars are coming off an impressive back-to-back sweep, dismantling Edmonton 8–3 on Tuesday and edging Seattle 3–2 on Wednesday. After a well-timed Thanksgiving break, Dallas returns home, where they are 6–4–1 this season.
Offensively, the Stars are explosive, ranking 5th in goals per game (3.4) despite sitting just 26th in shots. Their efficiency is driven by elite finishing talent and one of the league’s best power plays at 31.2% (2nd).
Defensively, Dallas is also strong with 2.7 goals allowed per game (8th), though their penalty kill sits at a shaky 77.9% (23rd). Goaltender Jake Oettinger, leads the team with 10–4–2 record, a 2.74 GAA, and a .900 save percentage.
Utah Mammoth at Dallas Stars Predictions
Utah vs Dallas Puckline Pick
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Utah Mammoth +1.5 (4 units)
Dallas is back home, but this will be their third game in four days, and the Stars have actually been more consistent on the road than at home. Utah is 3-2-3 over its last eight games, and only one of those resulted in a loss by more than a single goal.
The Mammoth play a controlled, low-mistake style that travels well. Last year, all three of Utah’s losses to Dallas were also decided by exactly one goal. With the fatigue edge clearly favoring Utah, the +1.5 puck line holds strong value.
Mamouth vs. Stars Total Pick
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Under 6.0 (4 units)
Three of the four meetings between these teams last season stayed under the total, and I expect another lower-scoring game here.
Utah allows the fewest shots per game in the league, and the Stars are on their third game in four days, which will likely lead to slower legs and more conservative play. Utah’s struggling power play also reduces its chance of quick scoring swings.
I don't see this game going over six goals, so I will go under.
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