Utah Mammoth vs New York Islanders Pick & Prediction for Thursday January 1 2025
Use Code WWWC Get ready for a cross-division New Year's Day battle in this Utah Mammoth vs. New York Islanders prediction from UBS Arena on Thursday at 3:00pm ET. Utah (18-19-3, 9-12-2 Away) looks to snap a two-game skid after a tough 4-3 loss to Nashville earlier this week.
The Islanders (22-14-4, 12-7-2 Home) return to Elmont following a gritty 3-2 shootout victory over Chicago on Tuesday. This marks the first meeting of the season between these two clubs, with the Islanders currently sitting as a narrow -115 favorite on home ice. The total for this afternoon matinee is set at 5.5. Check out more free NHL picks at Winners and Whiners.
Mammoth missing key offensive spark
Utah enters the New Year struggling for consistency, having won only two of their last five contests. The biggest challenge for the Mammoth right now is the absence of star center Logan Cooley, who remains on injured reserve with a lower-body injury and isn't expected back until February. His playmaking ability has been sorely missed on a power play that is currently converting at just 15.4%.
Despite the injury woes, Nick Schmaltz continues to lead the way for Utah. Schmaltz has 33 points (12G, 21A) through 40 games and has been a primary driver for the top line. He is joined by Dylan Guenther, who leads the team with 17 goals. Guenther has been a high-volume shooter this season, racking up 132 shots on goal, and will need to be sharp against a disciplined Islanders defensive structure.
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On the blue line, Mikhail Sergachev has provided much-needed veteran stability since being acquired in the offseason. Sergachev is logging heavy minutes and anchors a penalty kill that has been a rare bright spot for Utah, ranking 10th in the league at 82.3%. However, the Mammoth have struggled in their own zone during five-on-five play, often giving up high-danger chances in transition.
With Karel Vejmelka listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, Vitek Vanecek is expected to get the nod in net. Vanecek has a 2.92 GAA and an .879 save percentage on the season. If Utah wants to pull off the road upset, they will need Vanecek to improve upon those numbers, especially against an Islanders team that thrives in tight, low-scoring games.
Islanders leaning on defensive depth
The Islanders are finding ways to win despite their own significant injury concerns. Star netminder Ilya Sorokin remains on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, though he is nearing a return. In the meantime, David Rittich has stepped up admirably, posting a 2.27 GAA and a .918 save percentage. Rittich has been a calming presence for a team that prioritizes defensive structure under Patrick Roy.
Offensively, the Islanders are led by Bo Horvat, who was just named to Team Canada's 2026 Olympic roster yesterday. Horvat is having a career year with 21 goals and 33 points through 35 games. His ability to win face-offs (57.7%) and play a 200-foot game makes him the focal point of New York’s strategy. He’ll be supported by Mathew Barzal, who has 20 assists and remains one of the league's elite transitional players.
The Islanders’ depth is being tested with Kyle Palmieri out long-term, but players like Jonathan Drouin and Maxim Shabanov have filled the gaps effectively in the middle six. New York’s power play has been slightly better than Utah’s at 15.9%, but they will likely rely on their stifling defense, which allows only 2.65 goals per game, to dictate the pace of this afternoon’s matchup.
The key for the Islanders will be their performance at UBS Arena, where they have a solid 12-7-2 record. They rank 14th in the league in goals against, and their ability to shorten the game by leading after two periods has been a hallmark of their success this season. If they can neutralize Schmaltz and Guenther early, they should be able to control the flow of the game.
Spread pick for Mammoth vs. Islanders
Islanders -1.5 (+215)
The Islanders are a very different team at home, and David Rittich has been playing well enough to cover for the absent Sorokin. Utah is 9-12-2 on the road and has struggled to generate consistent offense without Logan Cooley in the lineup. While Utah may keep it close early, the Islanders' defensive discipline usually wears down opponents in the third period. Given Vanecek’s recent struggles in net for Utah, there is great value in taking the Islanders to win by more than one goal at plus money.
Total pick for Mammoth vs. Islanders
Under 5.5 (+110)
Both of these teams rank in the bottom third of the league in power-play percentage and goals scored per game. The Islanders are built to play low-scoring, defensive "slugfests," and they have gone under the total in four of their last five home games. With David Rittich playing at an elite level and Utah’s offense missing its most creative playmaker, points will be at a premium. Expect a low-scoring affair that finishes in the neighborhood of 3-1 or 3-2.
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