Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators Pick and Prediction for Thursday January 1 2026
Get ready for an Eastern Conference clash in this Washington Capitals vs. Ottawa Senators prediction from the Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday at 1:00pm ET. Washington (21-14-5, 9-7-3 Away) looks to build momentum after a high-scoring 6-3 win over the Rangers on New Year's Eve.
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Ottawa (18-15-5, 8-7-3 Home) returns to home ice as a slight favorite despite dropping three straight games, including a 4-1 loss to Columbus on Monday. These teams last met in October, when Ottawa dominated in a 7-1 blowout, but Washington has been the more consistent side as of late. The Senators are a -142 moneyline favorite, and the total is 5.5. Check out more free NHL picks at Winners and Whiners.
Capitals finding offensive rhythm
Washington enters the New Year having won two of their last three, and their offense has finally started to click, highlighted by a six-goal outburst against New York yesterday. While they missed the elite scoring of past years early on, they currently rank 10th in the NHL in goals scored. Winning on the road has been a challenge (9-7-3), but they have proven dangerous as an underdog this season.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tony Karpinski | +2,494.00 |
| 2 |  Joe Duffy | +1,859.00 |
| 3 |  The Insiders Room | +1,788.00 |
| 4 |  Mark Ruelle | +1,428.00 |
| 5 |  Jackie Mack | +1,400.00 |
The Capitals are led by Tom Wilson, who has been on a tear with 21 goals and 40 points, including three points in his last outing. He and goaltender Logan Thompson were both named to Team Canada’s roster for the 2026 Olympics just yesterday, providing a massive boost of confidence for the veterans as they head to the national stage in Italy this February.
Dylan Strome remains the primary playmaker for Washington, leading the team with 23 assists. His vision on the ice has been a focal point for a power play that is finally showing signs of life after a stagnant November. Strome's chemistry with Wilson on the top line has been the engine of the Capitals' mid-season resurgence.
Between the pipes, Logan Thompson has been the workhorse, posting a 15-10-3 record with a solid 2.33 GAA and .915 save percentage. He gives Washington a significant edge in net for this matinee matchup, especially with Ottawa dealing with roster turnover. Thompson’s ability to remain calm under pressure has been a defining trait during the Capitals' recent stretch of defensive consistency.
The biggest concern for Washington remains their special teams, which rank toward the bottom of the league at 15.2%. However, their penalty kill has been sturdy (76.6%), which will be vital against a dangerous Ottawa man-advantage. If the Capitals can stay out of the penalty box and maintain their 5-on-5 structure, they are in a prime position to avenge their early-season loss.
Senators dealing with goalie woes
Ottawa is stumbling into 2026, having lost three in a row while being outscored 14-8 in that span. The Senators have struggled to find a defensive rhythm lately, falling to 18-15-5 and sitting three points out of a wild-card spot. This recent skid has highlighted a lack of consistency in their back-end coverage, often leaving their netminders out to dry during high-danger transitions.
The biggest blow to the Senators is the absence of star goaltender Linus Ullmark, who took a leave of absence for personal reasons on December 28. This leaves the net to Leevi Merilainen, who is preparing for an increased workload. Merilainen has struggled with a 3.51 GAA and a shaky .869 save percentage, though he did post an impressive 1.99 GAA in a smaller sample size earlier in 2025.
Offensively, the Senators still have plenty of firepower to stay competitive. Tim Stutzle leads the way with 41 points (19G, 22A) and has already been named to Germany's Olympic roster. The team’s power play remains their greatest weapon, converting at a 25% clip, which could be the equalizer if Washington finds themselves in the box frequently.
Captain Brady Tkachuk continues to be a physical and emotional force, recently being named to the Team USA Olympic preliminary roster. While his leadership is unquestioned, the team as a whole has lacked discipline, leading to a high number of penalty minutes (366 PIM). Tkachuk will need to balance his physical play with discipline to avoid giving the Capitals' warming power play any extra looks.
The key for Ottawa will be their home-ice advantage and their ability to jump out to an early lead. If they can force Washington into a track meet, their superior shooting percentage (11.7%) could keep them in the game despite their defensive liabilities. However, they must find a way to mitigate the turnover margin, which has plagued them during this three-game losing streak.
Spread pick for Capitals vs. Senators
Capitals +1.5 (-218)
It is hard to ignore the goaltending mismatch in this game. While Ottawa is the favorite at home, Merilainen is under immense pressure with Ullmark away, and Washington’s offense is coming off a confident performance against the Rangers. Logan Thompson is playing at an elite level and should be able to weather the early storm from Stutzle and Tkachuk. Washington has covered in their last two meetings as an underdog, and with Ottawa's current defensive instability, the Capitals are the safer play to keep this close.
Total pick for Capitals vs. Senators
Over 5.5 (-135)
The trends heavily favor a high-scoring affair. Ottawa’s last five games have averaged over seven total goals, largely due to their defensive lapses and the transition in net. Washington’s offense is heating up, putting up six goals yesterday, and they have gone over in four of their last five road games. When these two teams meet, the "Over" has hit in seven of the last ten matchups. Given Merilainen's recent struggles and Ottawa’s potent power play, expect plenty of scoring in this New Year's Day matinee.
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