Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday, June 28, 2026
Use Code WWWC The CFL Week 4 schedule closes Sunday night at Percival Molson Memorial Stadium with a one-sided East Division matchup that the market has priced accordingly. The Ottawa Redblacks make their first road trip of the season carrying an 0-2 record after a 29-21 loss to Edmonton in Week 1 and a 44-24 home demolition at the hands of Toronto last weekend. The Montreal Alouettes return home at 2-1 after Davis Alexander's 13-game career winning streak ended in a 32-29 overtime loss in Edmonton, with the offense still producing at one of the best paces in the league.
The market has Montreal as 8.5-point home favorites with the total at 55.5, the kind of large number that reflects exactly the gap between these two teams. The Alouettes have won 10 straight meetings against Ottawa and covered in nine of the last 10. Lock in your full Sunday slate with our complete CFL picks before the 7:00 p.m. ET kickoff.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Montreal Alouettes -8.5
- Total Pick: Over 55.5
- Projected Final Score: Montreal 35, Ottawa 21
Odds and Line Movement
Opening Odds
| Market | Ottawa | Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (Opening) | +8 (-110) | -8 (-110) |
| Total (Opening) | Over 55 (-110) | Under 55 (-110) |
Current Odds
| Market | Ottawa | Montreal |
|---|---|---|
| Spread (Current) | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline (Current) | +295 | -365 |
| Total (Current) | Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Ottawa Spread | Montreal Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/28 | Current | +8.5 | -8.5 |
| 06/27 | Opening | +8 | -8 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/28 | Current | 55.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 |
| 06/27 | Opening | 55 -110 | 55 -110 |
Redblacks vs Alouettes Key Matchups and Handicap
Ottawa Quarterback Concerns
The Ottawa quarterback situation has been a moving target all month. The Redblacks dealt veteran Dru Brown back to Winnipeg on Tuesday, then signed veteran McLeod Bethel-Thompson, but Jake Maier is set to make his third straight start under center after putting up 484 passing yards and two touchdowns across the first two games. Maier ranks ninth in the CFL in passing yards, modest production that reflects both the recency of his promotion to the starting role and the difficult matchups he has faced. The bigger concern is the turnover differential. Ottawa has committed 10 turnovers across two games, the league high, and has surrendered 27 points off those turnovers, also a league high. The Maier-led offense will need to dramatically reduce that turnover rate against an opportunistic Montreal defense that has shown the ability to convert mistakes into immediate scoring drives. The Bethel-Thompson signing suggests Ottawa is prepared to make a change if Maier struggles early, which adds another layer of pressure to the start.
Alouettes Offensive Identity
Davis Alexander leads the CFL in passing yards with 1,133 across three games, and the offense around him has been one of the most productive units in the league through the opening weeks. Alexander has thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this season, and the matchup against an Ottawa secondary that allowed 44 points to Toronto last weekend should give him another high-volume passing performance. Tyson Philpot has emerged as the CFL's top receiver with 24 catches for 389 yards and three touchdowns, while Tyler Snead has been the secondary target with 19 catches for 305 yards and two touchdowns. The Alouettes have scored at least 29 points in all three of their games this year, including 30 against Hamilton, 37 against Toronto and 29 in the Edmonton overtime loss. Alexander suffered his first defeat in 14 career regular-season starts last week, and the return home for a Week 4 East Division matchup should generate the kind of bounce-back response that Montreal has consistently delivered after rare losses.
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Montreal Home Form
Percival Molson Memorial Stadium has been one of the most difficult environments for visiting teams across the CFL for years, and the Alouettes return home with the energy of a club that has dominated this specific matchup. Montreal has won 10 consecutive games against Ottawa, the longest active winning streak in the series for either side, and has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 meetings. The home crowd is expected to be fully engaged as the Alouettes try to regain the East Division lead. Montreal won 28-10 in the most recent home meeting last June, a result that captured the typical gap between these two clubs at Percival Molson. The combination of the home environment, the recent history and the matchup-specific advantages all favor Montreal covering the large number.
Redblacks Defensive Vulnerability
Ottawa's defense has been the central reason the team sits 0-2, and the underlying numbers are alarming heading into the Sunday matchup. The Redblacks have allowed 73 points across two games (36.5 per game), the second-worst defensive mark in the league. The Toronto game in Week 3 produced 44 points and 486 total yards for the Argonauts, with Chad Kelly throwing for over 400 yards and the offense scoring on six drives. Edmonton scored 29 in Week 1 behind a 100-yard Justin Rankin rushing performance. The pass defense has been particularly poor, surrendering big plays consistently on intermediate and deep routes, and the front seven has not generated enough pressure on quarterbacks to disrupt timing routes. Montreal's offense is precisely the kind of methodical, high-volume attack that has historically exposed defenses with Ottawa's profile, and Alexander has been efficient enough to convert the easy throws Ottawa keeps giving up into sustained scoring drives.
Betting Trends - OTT and MTL
The market has moved slightly toward Montreal throughout the week, with the spread climbing from a Montreal -8 opener to the current -8.5 and the moneyline holding around -365 on the home side. That move reflects exactly the recent series history and the matchup-specific advantages. Montreal has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 meetings against Ottawa, the kind of trend that has been remarkably consistent across both regular-season and playoff scenarios. The Alouettes are also coming off a Week 3 overtime loss in Edmonton, a result that historically produces a strong response at home the following week. Sunday primetime games at Percival Molson have produced lopsided Montreal wins over inferior division opponents at a high rate over the past three seasons, and the matchup against an 0-2 Ottawa club without a true established quarterback fits exactly that pattern.
The total at 55.5 reflects exactly the offensive ceiling Montreal has shown and the defensive struggles Ottawa has displayed. The over cashed in both of Montreal's first two games at home, with the Alouettes scoring 30 and 37 points against Hamilton and Toronto respectively. Ottawa has allowed 29 and 44 points in its two games, with the offense averaging 22.5 points per game in the same span. Add it all together and the matchup style points firmly toward another high-scoring game. Even if Ottawa's offense limits itself to two or three touchdowns, Montreal's offense should be more than enough to push the total over the 55.5 number by itself. The over is the cleaner side of the total at the current pricing.
Key Injuries and Notes - OTT and MTL
Ottawa enters the Sunday matchup with the bigger personnel concerns. The quarterback rotation around Maier and the newly signed Bethel-Thompson has been the central issue, but the broader roster has also been thin across the receiving corps and the defensive line. The Bethel-Thompson addition gives head coach Ryan Dinwiddie a veteran option at quarterback if Maier struggles early, but the timing of the trade and signing has not given Ottawa the practice continuity needed to be at full speed for the road game. The defensive personnel has not changed materially across the first three weeks of the season, and the unit's struggles have been about execution rather than absences. Dinwiddie's first season in Ottawa has begun rocky, and the trip to Montreal is exactly the kind of matchup that often results in lopsided losses without a strong home-field response.
Montreal is in good health heading into the home matchup, with Alexander, Philpot, Snead and the offensive line all available. The Alouettes' defensive depth has been a relative strength compared to their offensive output, and the matchup against Maier and the turnover-prone Ottawa offense should give the unit a real opportunity to generate takeaways and short-field scoring drives. The bench rotation has been deep enough to maintain energy across all three games, and the home crowd should provide additional lift for what is essentially a must-cover spot for a team trying to regain the top of the East Division standings. The recent history and the personnel matchup both favor Montreal at the current line.
ATS and Total Picks
- Spread Pick: Montreal Alouettes -8.5 - Montreal has won 10 straight against Ottawa and covered in 9 of the last 10 meetings, the Alouettes are coming off an overtime loss that historically produces strong bounce-back home performances, and the matchup between the CFL passing leader and a turnover-prone Ottawa offense should produce a double-digit Montreal win. The line at -8.5 is large but the underlying numbers support a comfortable cover. Lay the points.
- Total Pick: Over 55.5 - Montreal has scored at least 29 points in every game, Ottawa has allowed 36.5 points per game in its two losses, and the over cashed in both of Montreal's home games to start the season. The matchup style favors offensive output throughout, and even modest Ottawa offensive production combined with Montreal's expected scoring should clear the number comfortably. Take the over.
Final Score Prediction
Montreal 35, Ottawa 21. Alexander connects with Philpot on a deep ball early to set up a first-quarter touchdown, the Alouettes defense forces a turnover on Maier's third drive, and Montreal converts the short field into another score to build a multi-possession lead by halftime. Ottawa pushes back in the third quarter behind a Maier touchdown pass that pulls the Redblacks within two scores, but Alexander answers with another touchdown drive to extend the lead. The Alouettes add a field goal in the fourth quarter and Ottawa scores a late touchdown against soft coverage to make the final score look closer than the game played. Montreal covers the 8.5 comfortably and the combined 56 points pushes the total over 55.5.
How to Bet Redblacks vs Alouettes
The Montreal -8.5 and the over 55.5 are the two strongest plays on this game and they pair naturally inside a same-game parlay. A 35-21 Alouettes home win is the script that cashes both tickets at the same time, and the alignment between Alexander's offensive ceiling, Ottawa's defensive vulnerabilities and the recent series history all point to that range of outcomes. The Montreal moneyline at -365 is unattractive at this price, but the spread is the cleaner play given the matchup advantages. The Ottawa plus-money side is best avoided given the 10-game series losing streak and the current form differential.
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