Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Prediction and Picks - September 11, 2025

By: David Delano Published 09/11/2025, 11:12 AM ET

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury prediction

Check out our Dallas Wings (9-34) vs Phoenix Mercury (27-16) WNBA prediction for the last day of the season.

Check out our Wings vs Mercury prediction here.

It’s the last day of the season, and the immediate future for both teams are looking very different.

Keep up with the hottest sport in the nation and grab some free WNBA picks.

Phoenix Heading to the Playoffs

After winning six straight games, the Phoenix Mercury have dropped their last two, falling to Connecticut 87-84 and Los Angeles 88-83. With a 27-16 record, the Mercury are locked into the No. 4 seed and will face the New York Liberty in the first round of the playoffs, regardless of tonight’s result.

On the season, Phoenix ranks top four in points per game and in both field goal and three-point percentage allowed on defense. Offensively, they are a high-volume three-point shooting team, ranking third in attempts but only seventh in percentage. They average 83 points per game. The trio of Satou Sabally (16.4 ppg), Kahleah Copper (15.9 ppg), and Alyssa Thomas (15.7 ppg, 9.3 apg, 9.0 rpg, 1.6 spg) lead the way.

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Does Dallas Care About 10 Wins?

The Dallas Wings appear to be tanking, having lost 10 straight games. They sit one game behind the Chicago Sky for the league’s worst record. Rookie Paige Bueckers (19.1 ppg, 5.3 apg) has been exciting to watch, but her strong play hasn’t translated into victories.

The Wings rank ninth in scoring at 81.3 ppg, but are in the bottom three in both field goal and three-point percentage. Defensively, Dallas sits last in the league, allowing 88.3 ppg while opponents shoot 38.7% from beyond the arc.

Mercury vs. Wings Pick

Spread Pick for Mercury vs. Wings

ATS Pick: Dallas Wings +5.5 (4 units)

I don’t love backing the worst team in the WNBA on a 10-game losing streak, but all the incentive to win is on the Dallas side. The Wings are already locked in for the best lottery odds to land the No. 1 pick, but they’ll want to finish the season on a high note. For Phoenix, this game means nothing. With championship hopes ahead and a roster that has battled injuries, don’t expect the Mercury to risk much in the finale. Take Dallas to cover.

Total Pick: Over 165.5 (5 units)

It’s the last game of the season, and with nothing at stake, I expect points and stats to get padded. These teams have hit the over in seven straight head-to-head meetings. Phoenix loves to shoot threes, and Dallas can’t defend them. Expect a loose game, minimal defensive effort, and plenty of uncontested buckets.

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