Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks and Prediction for Saturday April 18 2026
Use Code WWWC The Tampa Bay Rays (11-7) and Pittsburgh Pirates (11-8) meet Saturday afternoon at 4:00 PM ET. This preview was written prior to the completion of Friday night’s matchup.
Tampa Bay enters this game on a six-game winning streak after sweeping both the Yankees and White Sox, while Pittsburgh continues to play strong baseball and has won three straight behind dominant pitching performances. If you are looking for more great picks, check out our Free MLB picks.
Drew Rasmussen is scheduled to start for the Rays against Paul Skenes for the Pirates.
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Can the Rays stay hot?
The Rays offense has been one of the most productive units in baseball early in the season. Tampa Bay entered this matchup ranked third in Major League Baseball in team batting average and has been even better away from home, also ranking third in road batting average. The Rays are averaging the eighth most runs per game in baseball, showing both consistency and balance throughout the lineup.
Yandy Diaz has been a key contributor, batting .371 with three home runs and 16 RBI, while Jonathan Aranda has matched that power production with three home runs and 15 RBI of his own. This duo has helped anchor an offense that has been difficult to contain.
Drew Rasmussen has been just as impressive on the mound. He enters this start at 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA and has not allowed more than one run in any of his three outings this season. Rasmussen has been efficient, limiting damage and keeping his team in position to win every time out. Even with the strong start, the Rays bullpen has been a concern, entering this matchup with a 5.80 ERA, ranking among the worst in baseball.
How Skenes got his groove back
The Pirates have quietly built a strong start to the season and entered this series at 11-8. Pittsburgh’s offense has been one of the more underrated groups in baseball, ranking 10th in runs per game at five per contest and sitting seventh in team batting average. They have been even better at home, posting the third best home batting average in Major League Baseball.
O'neil Cruz has led the way, hitting .316 with five home runs, 17 RBI, and nine stolen bases, showcasing his ability to impact the game in multiple ways. His presence at the top of the lineup has helped spark a Pirates offense that continues to trend upward.
Paul Skenes has been dominant after a rough first start of the season. He has allowed just one earned run in each of his last three outings, all Pirates wins, including victories over the Reds, Padres, and Nationals. Skenes enters this matchup at 3-1 with a 4.00 ERA, but his recent form tells a much stronger story. At home, he has been especially sharp, posting a 1.46 ERA with a 2-0 record.
The Pirates bullpen has also been a strength, entering this matchup with a 3.54 ERA, giving Pittsburgh a clear edge in the late innings compared to Tampa Bay.
Rays at Pirates Pick and Predictions
Rays vs Pirates Moneyline pick:
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -160 (3 units)
I am backing the Pirates on the moneyline in this spot. Both offenses have been strong, and both starters are capable of shutting down opposing lineups, but the edge comes down to the bullpen. Pittsburgh has been significantly more reliable late in games, while Tampa Bay’s bullpen has struggled.
Skenes has been dominant over his last three starts and has been nearly untouchable at home. Rasmussen has also been excellent, but in a tight, low-scoring game, I trust Pittsburgh to close it out. Take the Pirates.
Rays vs Pirates Total Pick:
- Under (3 units)
I am backing the under in this matchup. Both Rasmussen and Skenes have been dominant, and this has the feel of a pitching duel from start to finish. Even with both offenses producing at a high level, this is a spot where runs should be hard to come by.
This could easily turn into a game where five or fewer runs are scored. With two in-form starters and one bullpen that can lock things down, the under is the play.
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