US Open Men's & Women's Singles 3rd Round Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 5 2026

The third round of the 2026 U.S. Open continues Saturday with Taylor Fritz facing Francisco Cerundolo on Arthur Ashe Stadium, Amanda Anisimova meeting Anastasia Potapova on Louis Armstrong, and rising stars Iva Jovic and Alexandra Eala closing the night session on Ashe.

Fritz has been nearly flawless through two rounds, but Cerundolo represents his first opponent capable of consistently matching him from the baseline. That matchup also offers Saturday's most interesting underdog price.

U.S. Open Third Round Best Bet

• Francisco Cerundolo ML: +450 or better

Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo Preview

Fritz could hardly have asked for a smoother opening week. He beat Darwin Blanch 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 before dismantling Mattia Bellucci 6-0, 6-1, 6-1 in the second round.

The Bellucci match lasted only three sets and Fritz never faced a break. He hit 11 aces, won 86% of his first-serve points and converted eight of 15 break opportunities. Through two rounds, the American has yet to drop a set.

Cerundolo's path has been considerably harder. He began with a straight-sets win over Filip Misolic, then had to recover twice from a set down against Jan-Lennard Struff before winning 5-7, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2, 6-3.

That five-set workload is a concern, but the way Cerundolo finished the match matters. He became increasingly comfortable in longer exchanges and eventually wore down an opponent whose best path was built around the serve and first attacking shot. Cerundolo finished with 60 winners in the comeback.

Surface and Matchup

Fritz's serve is the obvious starting point. When he is serving as efficiently as he did against Bellucci, opponents receive very few neutral return games. He can follow a strong first delivery with the forehand and keep entire service games from developing into baseline contests.

Cerundolo needs to change that rhythm.

The Argentine is a much stronger rally player than either of Fritz's first two opponents and has enough weight off both wings to prevent Fritz from automatically controlling every exchange after the serve. His best opportunity is to make Fritz play repeated neutral balls rather than allowing the American to finish points in two or three shots.

Cerundolo also brings more variety on return. He does not have to break Fritz repeatedly, but he needs to force enough 30-all and deuce games to create pressure over a best-of-five match.

The players have split two previous meetings. Fritz won their most recent encounter 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 in Madrid in 2024, although neither previous match came on hard courts. Reuters also notes that the overall series is tied 1-1 entering Saturday.

Odds and Line Movement

Cerundolo was initially quoted around 4.25, or +325, in early markets. More recent prices have stretched considerably, with +450 available in current comparisons. Fritz has consequently shortened into the heavy-favorite range.

That movement makes the underdog substantially more interesting than he was at the opener.

What Will Decide the Match

Cerundolo cannot afford to let Fritz cruise through service games for three sets. He needs to extend return games, get Fritz moving laterally and force the American to construct points after his initial attack.

Fritz deserves to be favored after losing only seven games in six sets, but Cerundolo is a meaningful step up in baseline resistance. If the Argentine can survive the opening hour and make this physical, the match has a better chance of becoming complicated than the price suggests.

Prediction: Cerundolo wins 3-2

Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova Preview

Anisimova enters the third round after beating Ashlyn Krueger 6-1, 6-3 and Lilli Tagger 6-3, 3-6, 6-1. She has won 17 of 25 hard-court matches this season and has produced 10 breaks through her first two matches in New York.

Potapova has had a less straightforward tournament. She cruised past Darja Semenistaja 6-2, 6-2 before needing three sets to defeat Leolia Jeanjean 6-4, 2-6, 6-3.

There is very little separating their first-serve results at this tournament. Both have won 72% of their first-serve points through two rounds, but Potapova has been more volatile behind the second serve and has already committed 13 double faults.

That is dangerous against Anisimova. The American is at her best when she can step inside the court, take the return early and immediately put opponents under pressure. Potapova needs a higher first-serve percentage than the 53% she has produced so far if she wants to avoid defending from the first shot.

Their career series is tied 1-1, but the previous meetings are old enough and came on different surfaces, so Saturday's hard-court form deserves more weight.

Prediction: Anisimova wins 2-1

Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Preview

Jovic and Eala arrive as two of the most impressive young players left in the women's draw.

Jovic has beaten Magdalena Frech 7-5, 6-3 and Francesca Jones 6-4, 6-4 without dropping a set. Eala has been even more efficient, beating Mary Stoiana 6-1, 6-2 and Oleksandra Oliynykova 6-1, 6-4. She needed only a little over an hour to finish her second-round victory.

The matchup history favors Jovic. She has beaten Eala twice this season, winning 6-4, 6-2 at Roland Garros and 6-2, 6-2 on grass in London. This will be their first meeting on hard courts.

Eala's improvement on this surface makes Saturday more interesting than those scores suggest. She is 24-10 on hard courts this season and has won 61% of all points played through her first two U.S. Open matches. Jovic, however, has consistently handled Eala's left-handed patterns and has been excellent when attacking second serves.

Eala was around 2.01 on the earlier board after opening closer to 2.11, suggesting a modest move toward the Filipina.

Prediction: Jovic wins 2-1

Best Bet - Francisco Cerundolo ML +450

Fritz has been outstanding, but Saturday is his first match against an opponent with the baseline strength to make him work consistently after the serve.

Cerundolo has already shown his ability to adjust during a long match, turning around a difficult five-set battle with Struff, and he has enough power from the back of the court to prevent Fritz from dictating every neutral exchange.

The American should still dominate stretches with his serve, but the current price leaves plenty of room for a much more competitive match than his first two rounds.

Best Bet: Francisco Cerundolo ML +450 or better

Prediction: Cerundolo wins 3-2