Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 12 2026

Ignacio Bahamondes faces Muslim Salikhov in a welterweight striking matchup at Noche UFC. Bahamondes is a major favorite after moving up from lightweight and has won his last two listed UFC bouts by unanimous decision, while Salikhov brings one of the deepest striking backgrounds in the division and 15 career knockouts.

The line is wide. Bahamondes has been bet from roughly -300 at opening to the -525 range, leaving Salikhov available around +425. That movement makes the veteran a speculative underdog, but his counter-striking gives him a clear route that does not require winning every minute.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov Preview

Bahamondes is 17-7 with 11 knockout wins and two submissions. UFC lists him at 5.99 significant strikes landed per minute and 4.07 absorbed, reflecting a style built around activity and long-range offense. His height and kicking game can be especially difficult for opponents who need to step into boxing range.

Salikhov is 22-6 with 15 knockout wins. UFC lists 3.37 significant strikes landed per minute against 2.96 absorbed and a 62 percent significant-strike defense. He does not match Bahamondes' raw volume, but he is more selective and has built a long career around timing counters against aggressive opponents.

Striking Matchup

Bahamondes wants to use length and volume. He can attack from outside with kicks, build combinations and force opponents to absorb a high number of looks before they find their own timing.

Salikhov's best chance is to punish that activity. He is unlikely to win by trying to match Bahamondes strike for strike. Instead, he needs to make the favorite pay for entering range, especially when Bahamondes extends combinations or exits in a straight line.

The veteran's lower output is not automatically a weakness if the cleaner shots are his. A fight with long stretches of kicking favors Bahamondes; a fight with sharp pocket collisions creates the upset window.

Wrestling and Grappling

Neither fighter is expected to build the game plan around wrestling. Bahamondes has attempted very few takedowns in the UFC, while Salikhov's offense has historically been striking-first. Any grappling is more likely to function as a change-up or a way to stop momentum.

That makes defensive positioning especially important. Salikhov cannot afford to be trapped at the end of Bahamondes' combinations with no secondary route out.

Odds and Line Movement

Bahamondes opened around -300 and had moved to roughly -525 by Friday. Salikhov was available around +425. The market has therefore moved aggressively toward the younger, longer favorite.

The move is understandable, but it also creates a very large payoff on one of the division's most accomplished counter strikers.

What Will Decide the Fight

Salikhov has to turn Bahamondes' volume into openings instead of allowing it to become cumulative damage. The favorite will have more chances to score if he can keep the fight at long range, so the veteran underdog needs to make the quality of individual exchanges matter more than the quantity. That means reading the exits, countering after extended combinations and forcing Bahamondes to hesitate before opening up. Bahamondes can take the safest route by varying targets and refusing to stay in the pocket after he lands. The fight becomes dangerous for him if the same offensive confidence that creates his output also leaves predictable moments for Salikhov's counters.

Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov Prediction

Bahamondes should control more minutes, but Salikhov only needs one clean timing read to change the fight. The favorite's willingness to work at high volume creates opportunities for a veteran counterpuncher to land between combinations.

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov wins by KO/TKO

Best Bet - Muslim Salikhov ML +425

This is a longshot built around a specific finishing path rather than an expectation that Salikhov wins a three-round volume battle. At +425, his power and timing are enough to justify the upset position.

Best Bet: Muslim Salikhov ML +425

Prediction: Muslim Salikhov wins by KO/TKO