US Open Men's Singles Final Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 13 2026

The 2026 U.S. Open men's singles title comes down to Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton on Sunday at Arthur Ashe Stadium. Zverev is chasing his second Grand Slam championship and his first in New York, while Shelton is playing his first major final and trying to become the first American man to win a Grand Slam singles title since Andy Roddick captured the U.S. Open in 2003.

Zverev enters with the cleaner recent form, but Shelton has already produced the defining upset of the tournament by beating defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in five sets. That combination creates a fascinating final between Zverev's serving consistency and baseline stability and Shelton's left-handed power, athleticism and rapidly improving confidence.

Best Available Odds for Zverev vs Shelton

• Alexander Zverev ML: -143
• Ben Shelton ML: +130

The market has moved slightly toward Shelton. Zverev was closer to the -150 range earlier, while current comparison prices have him available as high as -143 and Shelton around +130.

Match Information

Match: Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton Round: Men's Singles Final Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026 Time: 2:00 p.m. ET Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing Meadows Surface: Outdoor hard court Format: Best of five sets

Zverev vs Shelton Preview

Zverev's tournament looked shaky during the opening rounds, but his level has risen dramatically as the stakes have increased. He was pushed to five sets in each of his first two matches, then responded by winning four consecutive matches without dropping a set.

The semifinal was another example. Zverev defeated Karen Khachanov 6-3, 7-6, 7-6, surviving two difficult tiebreaks and maintaining his composure when Khachanov threatened to extend the match. The victory sent him into his third consecutive Grand Slam final and his second U.S. Open championship match.

Shelton has taken the more dramatic route. After beating Alcaraz in a five-set quarterfinal that finished deep into the night, he recovered from losing the opening set against Frances Tiafoe and won 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 7-5.

The 23-year-old showed no obvious hangover from the Alcaraz marathon. His serve remained dangerous, his forehand consistently pushed Tiafoe behind the baseline, and he looked increasingly comfortable managing the pressure of playing deep into the tournament.

Recent Form

Zverev has become extremely difficult to break. During his semifinal he saw a streak of 37 consecutive service games without being broken finally end, but he immediately recovered and continued to control the match behind his first serve.

That reliability matters in a final where Shelton will want to keep sets short and explosive.

Shelton's form is more volatile, but his ceiling has been spectacular. He has beaten Tsitsipas, Alcaraz and Tiafoe during the second week, with the Alcaraz victory providing the strongest evidence that he can survive against an elite returner over five sets.

The difference is that Zverev has generally been producing his best tennis without needing the emotional swings that have characterized Shelton's run.

Surface and Matchup

Shelton's left-handed serve gives him his clearest route into the match. He can pull Zverev wide on the ad court and create space for the next forehand, while his flat serve through the middle prevents Zverev from simply leaning toward one return position.

Zverev, however, is particularly well equipped to deal with big servers. His reach helps him get difficult first serves back into play, and once rallies begin he owns the steadier backhand.

Shelton will want to shorten points. Zverev will be happy to make him hit three, four or five attacking balls before the point ends.

If the match becomes a prolonged baseline contest, the advantage shifts toward the German. Shelton has improved his rally tolerance considerably, but his best tennis still comes when the serve and first forehand allow him to dictate immediately.

Serve and Return

Both players can dominate service games, but Zverev owns the more dependable second serve when his mechanics remain settled.

Shelton's first delivery can be almost unreturnable, yet he occasionally gives opponents opportunities when forced to play behind the second ball. Zverev is likely to stand deep, absorb the kick serve and force Shelton to construct points rather than simply ending them.

On the other side, Shelton has to find a way to pressure Zverev's second serve. If Zverev is routinely moving through holds without facing break points, Shelton will be forced to play nearly perfect tennis in tiebreaks.

Head-to-Head and Betting Trends

The head-to-head is the strongest piece of matchup history favoring Zverev.

Zverev has won all five previous meetings with Shelton, including matches on hard courts, clay and grass. The U.S. Open notes that Shelton has yet to beat him in any of their five encounters.

That history should not be treated as destiny. Shelton is playing the best Grand Slam tennis of his career and already showed against Alcaraz that old matchup results do not guarantee anything.

Still, five straight victories give Zverev proof that his return position, backhand stability and patience have repeatedly bothered Shelton.

Odds and Line Movement

Zverev was around -150 earlier and has drifted modestly toward -143, while Shelton can now be found near +130.

That move makes the favorite slightly more attractive than he was initially. Shelton's wins over Alcaraz and Tiafoe have understandably drawn attention, but Zverev remains the player with the cleaner service profile, more major-final experience and dominant head-to-head record.

What Will Decide the Match

Shelton needs to serve at an elite level and prevent Zverev from establishing long return games.

If he can consistently reach 30-0 and 40-15, he can create tiebreak opportunities and use the home crowd to increase the pressure on Zverev. But if too many service games reach deuce, Zverev's consistency should begin to tell.

The German's biggest task is avoiding passive stretches. Shelton is too dangerous to be allowed repeated forehand attacks from inside the baseline.

Zverev should eventually create more return opportunities, and his ability to protect his own serve gives him the stronger path across five sets.

Best Bet - Alexander Zverev ML -143

Shelton has earned his place in the final and has already proven he can beat the very best players in New York, but Zverev presents a different kind of challenge.

He has won all five previous meetings, has gone four straight matches without dropping a set and comes into Sunday after a more economical semifinal. His return game should also force Shelton to hit more balls than he faced against Tiafoe.

Shelton's serve is good enough to win a set and potentially force multiple tiebreaks, but Zverev has the steadier combination of serve, return and baseline control.

Prediction: Zverev wins 3-1