US Open Men's & Women's Singles 3rd Round Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday September 4 2026

The third round of the 2026 U.S. Open begins Friday with several matches that look considerably tighter than the seedings suggest. Daniel Merida gets another chance to continue his breakout summer against Alex Michelsen, Alexander Bublik meets Tommy Paul in a matchup that produced a five-set battle in New York last year, and Emma Navarro faces an in-form Karolina Muchova.

Merida has already knocked out Andrey Rublev and owns a recent hard-court win over Michelsen, making their meeting one of the most intriguing matches on Friday's men's schedule.

U.S. Open Third Round Best Bet

• Daniel Merida ML: +154

Daniel Merida vs Alex Michelsen Preview

Merida's run in New York no longer looks like a player simply taking advantage of a favorable draw.

The 21-year-old Spaniard opened with a straight-sets win over Marton Fucsovics before producing one of the better upsets of the second round, recovering from a set down to beat Andrey Rublev 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 6-4. Merida broke Rublev five times and won 74% of his first-serve points while conceding only one service break.

That result continued a rapid rise that has already taken Merida from No. 163 at the start of the season to the Top 40. He won his first ATP title in Umag in July and then reached the Montreal quarterfinals, giving him meaningful success on both clay and hard courts before arriving in New York.

Michelsen has been just as convincing through two rounds. He dismissed Federico Cina 6-4, 6-1, 6-0 before upsetting Brandon Nakashima in straight sets. Against Nakashima, Michelsen won 83% of his first-serve points and faced enough resistance to be tested without being dragged into a long match.

Surface and Matchup

Both players have been excellent on hard courts this season. Merida enters at 20-7 on the surface, while Michelsen is 23-9. Their service numbers in New York have also been remarkably close, although they get there in different ways. Michelsen has been more dominant behind his first serve, while Merida has landed a higher percentage of first deliveries.

The more interesting factor is their recent history.

They have split two previous meetings, both on hard courts, and Merida won the most recent one in Montreal less than a month ago. He took that match 6-4, 6-7, 6-1. That is considerably more relevant than an old head-to-head result from another surface because both players were already operating close to their current level.

Merida needs to keep Michelsen from turning this into a sequence of short first-strike rallies. He was able to withstand Rublev's power while still creating 11 break opportunities, and that ability to pressure serve is important against an opponent who has been holding comfortably all week.

Odds and Line Movement

Merida was available at 2.54, or approximately +154, on the earlier Friday board. That price has already begun to shorten, with some markets moving him toward +140 as bettors react to his form and recent win over Michelsen.

Prediction: Merida wins 3-2

Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul Preview

Bublik could hardly have played a cleaner second-round match. He beat Adrian Mannarino 6-3, 6-1, 6-1 after opening the tournament with a four-set win over J.J. Wolf.

Paul has required more work. He dropped sets in each of his first two matches, beating Coleman Wong in four before doing the same against Dino Prizmic.

That difference does not automatically make Bublik the stronger player. Paul has generally been the better returner and leads their career series 5-2, but their most relevant recent meeting went the other way. Bublik defeated Paul in five sets at the 2025 U.S. Open in a match that included three tiebreaks and 55 games.

What Will Decide the Match

Bublik's serve gives him a chance to control entire stretches without allowing Paul to establish his return game. Paul, however, is much better equipped than Mannarino to make Bublik play extra balls and attack the second serve.

The longer this match lasts, the more Paul's return consistency should matter. Bublik can still take sets quickly when he serves well, which makes another extended contest entirely plausible.

Paul is currently around -175 with Bublik near +137.

Prediction: Paul wins 3-2

Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova Preview

No player involved in these three matches has looked more comfortable through two rounds than Muchova.

She opened with a 6-3, 6-0 win over Sinja Kraus before dismantling Katie Boulter 6-1, 6-0. Muchova converted all seven break opportunities against Boulter and dropped only 13 points on serve.

Navarro's path has been almost the opposite. She needed three sets against Lois Boisson and then came from behind to beat Caty McNally 3-6, 6-2, 6-3. Navarro became much steadier as the McNally match progressed, but she has already played six sets and dealt with rain interruptions in both matches.

Muchova's variety is the central problem. She can change direction, come forward and prevent Navarro from settling into the repetitive baseline exchanges where the American is most comfortable.

Navarro's best chance is to extend rallies and make Muchova hit enough additional balls to expose periods of inconsistency, but Muchova has given opponents very few openings so far in New York.

Prediction: Muchova wins 2-0

Best Bet - Daniel Merida ML +154

Michelsen has been excellent through two rounds, but Merida's recent body of work makes the underdog difficult to dismiss.

He has already beaten Michelsen on a hard court this summer, followed that run with his first ATP title and arrived in the third round after handling Rublev's power over four sets. Michelsen's serve will create difficult stretches, but Merida has shown enough return pressure and baseline stability to stay with him over five sets.

With both players producing strong hard-court seasons, the gap between them looks smaller than Friday's price suggests.

Best Bet: Daniel Merida ML +154

Prediction: Merida wins 3-2