US Open Men's & Women's Singles Quarterfinals Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday September 8 2026

The U.S. Open quarterfinals begin Tuesday with a loaded Arthur Ashe Stadium schedule. Ben Shelton gets another shot at Carlos Alcaraz after producing his best performance of the tournament against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Frances Tiafoe meets fellow American Alex Michelsen, and two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka faces Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova.

Shelton remains a sizeable underdog against Alcaraz, but the way he has served throughout this run makes the men's night match a much more interesting test than the outright price suggests.

U.S. Open Quarterfinal Best Bet

• Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games: -135

Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview

Shelton arrives in the quarterfinals after dismantling Tsitsipas 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 in his cleanest match of the tournament. The American did not face a break point and repeatedly shortened points with the serve before controlling the next ball from inside the baseline. Reuters notes that Shelton believes his return, movement and baseline tolerance have all improved since his previous meetings with Alcaraz.

Alcaraz has been just as impressive. After spending nearly five months away from competition because of a wrist injury, the defending champion has returned without much visible rust. He beat Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the fourth round and has dropped only one set through four matches in New York.

Surface and Matchup

Shelton's serve is the key to making this competitive. He has enough pace and left-handed shape to create service games in which even an elite returner gets very few looks. Against Tsitsipas, that advantage was overwhelming.

Alcaraz presents a much harder problem because he is capable of blocking back first serves that would finish points against most players, then immediately turning defense into offense. Shelton cannot rely entirely on pace. He needs to use body serves, change locations and keep Alcaraz from settling into the same return position.

Their history favors the Spaniard. Alcaraz is 3-0 against Shelton, including a four-set victory at Roland Garros last season. Their only previous North American hard-court meeting came in Toronto in 2023, where Alcaraz won 6-3, 7-6.

Shelton is a better player now than he was in that first meeting. His best path is not necessarily to dominate rallies, but to hold often enough that individual sets are decided by one break or a tiebreak.

Odds and Line Movement

Shelton was around +304 on the earlier board and has drifted slightly to approximately +317, while Alcaraz is now around -421. The game total sits at 37.5, with the Over available at -135. Shelton is also +3.5 games at approximately -135.

That total essentially asks Shelton to turn this into a genuine four-set match rather than another routine Alcaraz win.

What Will Decide the Match

Shelton needs to protect his service games early. If he is immediately forced into repeated deuce games, Alcaraz's return quality can eventually wear him down.

But Shelton comes into this match serving at his highest level of the tournament, and Arthur Ashe should amplify the pressure on Alcaraz whenever the American gets ahead. Alcaraz remains the more complete player and should create more opportunities from the baseline, but Shelton has enough serve to stretch sets and enough current form to take one.

Prediction: Alcaraz wins 3-1

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen Preview

Tiafoe has transformed his tournament since surviving a five-set opener. He has now won nine consecutive sets, including a 7-6, 6-4, 7-6 victory over Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round.

That win was particularly encouraging because Tiafoe did more than simply overpower Medvedev. He mixed in net approaches, used the drop shot effectively and stayed composed through two tiebreaks against one of the best hard-court defenders of his generation.

Michelsen has not dropped a set all tournament. He beat Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 after previously sweeping Daniel Merida and Brandon Nakashima.

The matchup will revolve around Michelsen's backhand against Tiafoe's ability to change the geometry of rallies. Michelsen is comfortable trading flat cross-court backhands for long stretches, while Tiafoe has increasingly used touch and changes of pace to stop opponents from locking into predictable patterns.

Tiafoe has won both previous meetings in straight sets, including victories in Dallas and Houston. He was around 1.65 on the earlier board and remains near -156, so there has been very little meaningful movement.

Prediction: Tiafoe wins 3-1

Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova Preview

Sabalenka has reached another U.S. Open quarterfinal without dropping a set. She beat Taylor Townsend 6-4, 6-3 in the fourth round and continues to use the New York courts exactly the way she wants: first-strike serving followed by immediate forehand pressure.

Noskova has taken a much more difficult route. The Wimbledon champion needed three sets to beat Marta Kostyuk, eventually prevailing 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 after missing an earlier opportunity to close the match in straight sets.

Both players prefer fast exchanges, which makes Noskova dangerous. She does not need to change her natural style to trouble Sabalenka. She can serve big, take the ball early and force the defending champion to defend more than usual.

Sabalenka still owns the stronger version of that game. She leads their head-to-head 2-0 and beat Noskova 6-3, 6-4 at Indian Wells earlier this season. Sabalenka was around 1.39 on the earlier board, while current prices have moved slightly higher in places, with Noskova receiving a little more support.

Prediction: Sabalenka wins 2-1

Best Bet - Shelton vs Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games -135

Alcaraz deserves to be favored, but Shelton's serve gives this match a realistic path to four competitive sets.

The American just went an entire match without facing a break point, and he has enough pace to keep Alcaraz from creating opportunities in every return game. Alcaraz should eventually expose more weaknesses from the baseline, but Shelton does not need to win the match for the total to get there.

A tiebreak, a Shelton set and two reasonably competitive Alcaraz sets would put 38 games well within reach.

Best Bet: Shelton vs Alcaraz Over 37.5 Games -135

Prediction: Alcaraz wins 3-1