US Open Men's & Women's Singles Round of 16 Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday September 6 2026

The 2026 U.S. Open reaches the Round of 16 on Sunday with several of the tournament's biggest names facing their first serious second-week tests. Carlos Alcaraz draws Tommy Paul in an Arthur Ashe Stadium matchup that has historically produced competitive hard-court tennis, while Daniil Medvedev meets Frances Tiafoe and Anna Kalinskaya faces Emma Navarro for a place in the women's quarterfinals.

Paul has already spent substantially more time on court than Alcaraz, but his athleticism, return game and previous success troubling the Spaniard make the game handicap more attractive than asking him to complete the outright upset.

U.S. Open Round of 16 Best Bet

• Tommy Paul +5.5 Games: +105

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Preview

Paul arrives in the fourth round after one of the more demanding routes left in the men's draw. His third-round meeting with Alexander Bublik went the full five sets, with Paul recovering from two sets to one down to win 6-4, 3-6, 6-7, 6-1, 6-3. It was the third consecutive round in which the American was forced to give up at least one set.

Alcaraz has had a much cleaner tournament. He has dropped only one set through three matches, most recently beating Yibing Wu 6-3, 6-4, 6-1. The defending champion returned to singles competition in New York after several months away because of a wrist injury, but his movement and ability to change gears have increasingly looked like their usual level.

Surface and Matchup

Paul's challenge is obvious: he cannot allow Alcaraz to dictate every neutral rally with the forehand.

What makes Paul unusually equipped to stay competitive is his speed. He can defend the first attack without immediately surrendering court position, and he is comfortable redirecting pace from both wings. That has created difficult matches for Alcaraz before.

Paul owns two previous victories over Alcaraz on North American hard courts, beating him in Montreal in 2022 and Toronto in 2023. Alcaraz has controlled their more recent meetings, including a straight-sets win at this year's Australian Open, but several of their hard-court sets have required tiebreaks or late breaks. Alcaraz himself acknowledged before Sunday's match that Paul's style has repeatedly made life difficult for him.

The American's return game also gives him a chance to prevent Alcaraz from running away with too many sets. Paul does not need to consistently overpower the Spaniard. He needs to keep enough service games competitive to avoid the kind of 6-2 or 6-1 sets that destroy a game handicap.

Odds and Line Movement

Paul was around +382 on the earlier moneyline and remains in approximately the same long-underdog range, with current prices between roughly +386 and +420. Alcaraz is trading between approximately -455 and -567.

The game handicap is much tighter, with Paul +5.5 available around +105. Current totals are sitting near 37.5 games.

What Will Decide the Match

Paul has to avoid giving away stretches with his second serve. Alcaraz is exceptional at turning a weak second delivery into immediate offense, and one poor service game can quickly become a one-sided set.

But if Paul serves adequately and gets enough first returns back into play, his movement should force Alcaraz to win points through multiple attacking shots. That gives the American a realistic chance to take a set and keep the others close.

Prediction: Alcaraz wins 3-1

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe Preview

Medvedev has quietly produced one of the cleanest opening weeks in the men's draw. He has not dropped a set through three rounds and beat Arthur Rinderknech 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 in the third round.

Tiafoe has found his form after surviving a five-set opener. He followed that escape by beating Rei Sakamoto in straight sets and then swept Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 to reach the fourth round.

The matchup has historically favored Medvedev because of how effectively he absorbs Tiafoe's first attack. Tiafoe wants to use the serve and forehand to create quick openings, but Medvedev's deep return position often gives him enough time to put the ball back into a neutral area and force another shot.

Tiafoe will need to vary his positioning, use the net and avoid becoming predictable from the baseline. If every point settles into a deep cross-court exchange, Medvedev should own the more sustainable pattern.

Medvedev is around -143, with Tiafoe approximately +113, while the total is sitting near 39.5 games.

Prediction: Medvedev wins 3-1

Anna Kalinskaya vs Emma Navarro Preview

Kalinskaya reached the U.S. Open fourth round for the first time by beating Elina Svitolina 6-3, 2-6, 6-3. The match featured 13 breaks of serve, but Kalinskaya steadied herself in the deciding set and made fewer errors when the match tightened.

Navarro produced her best performance of the tournament against Karolina Muchova. The American won 6-3, 7-5 and committed only 18 unforced errors compared with Muchova's 32, repeatedly making the Czech player hit another difficult ball before she could finish points.

Kalinskaya won their only previous meeting earlier this season in Doha, 7-5, 2-6, 6-2. Her early ball-striking can take time away from Navarro, but the American's defense looked considerably sharper against Muchova than it had during her first two matches.

The market reflects how little separates them. Current prices have both players sitting around -111.

Prediction: Kalinskaya wins 2-1

Best Bet - Tommy Paul +5.5 Games +105

Alcaraz is the more likely winner, but Paul does not need to beat him for the handicap to cash.

Paul's movement, return ability and familiarity with Alcaraz's pace give him a better chance than most opponents of keeping sets from getting away quickly. He has already beaten Alcaraz twice on North American hard courts, and even in defeat he has shown he can push the Spaniard into long sets.

Alcaraz should eventually have too many ways to finish points over five sets, but Paul is capable of taking a set and forcing enough close service games to stay inside the number.

Best Bet: Tommy Paul +5.5 Games +105

Prediction: Alcaraz wins 3-1