US Open Women's Singles Semifinals Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 10 2026

The 2026 U.S. Open women's semifinals bring the top four seeds to Arthur Ashe Stadium on Thursday night. Aryna Sabalenka meets Jessica Pegula at 7:00 p.m. ET in another chapter of their increasingly competitive rivalry, followed by Coco Gauff against incoming world No. 1 Elena Rybakina.

Both semifinals feature players coming off three-set quarterfinals, but Sabalenka-Pegula stands out as the matchup most likely to require a deciding set. Their recent meetings have become far less one-sided, and Pegula has shown throughout this tournament that she can absorb an early setback without losing control of the match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Preview

Sabalenka's pursuit of a third consecutive U.S. Open title nearly ended against Linda Noskova. After winning a first-set tiebreak, Sabalenka dropped the second and needed another breaker to escape 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. It was the first set she had lost all tournament and easily her sternest test in New York.

Pegula also had to recover from a set down in her quarterfinal. Emma Navarro took the opener 6-3 before Pegula steadied her groundstrokes and came back to win 6-4, 6-3 in the final two sets. It was Pegula's 50th victory of the season and sent her into a third consecutive U.S. Open semifinal.

Surface and Matchup

Sabalenka still owns the bigger serve and the easier path to short points. When she gets a high percentage of first serves into play, she can prevent Pegula from settling into the return patterns that make the American so dangerous.

Pegula's advantage is her ability to redirect pace. She does not need a long backswing to take Sabalenka's power and send it somewhere else, which can make the Belarusian hit more balls than she wants from uncomfortable positions.

That dynamic has become increasingly important in their rivalry. Sabalenka leads the overall series 9-4 and beat Pegula in New York in both 2024 and 2025, but Pegula has won two of their last three meetings. Her most recent victory came in Berlin earlier this season.

The deeper this match goes, the more Pegula's consistency matters. Sabalenka can dominate individual stretches with her serve and forehand, but Pegula has enough return quality to keep one poor service game from automatically deciding an entire set.

Odds and Line Movement

Sabalenka was around 1.50 in the earlier market and has drifted slightly, with current prices closer to 1.55. Pegula has moved from roughly 2.57 into the +160 range.

The more interesting move is in the set market. Over 2.5 sets is currently available around +120, with some comparisons showing an even bigger plus price.

What Will Decide the Match

Pegula needs to make Sabalenka serve under pressure. If Sabalenka routinely reaches 40-0 and 40-15, Pegula will struggle to create enough scoreboard pressure to force errors.

But Pegula has become increasingly comfortable in this matchup, and both women just showed they can respond after losing momentum. One dominant Sabalenka set does not necessarily mean the match is over, and the same is true if Pegula gets ahead early.

Prediction: Sabalenka wins 2-1

Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina Preview

Gauff reached the semifinals through one of the tournament's most dramatic comebacks. Mirra Andreeva won the first set 6-2 and held two match points in the second, but Gauff survived the tiebreak and pulled away 6-2 in the third. The American has now won 10 consecutive matches.

Rybakina also had to come from behind in the quarterfinals, recovering from a 6-3 opening-set loss to beat Qinwen Zheng 6-1, 6-4. The victory secured the world No. 1 ranking and moved Rybakina into her first U.S. Open semifinal.

Serve and Return

Rybakina has owned the cleaner service profile in New York. She has held in 92% of her service games and won 70% of her service points, both tournament-leading marks entering the semifinals.

Gauff's counter is one of the strongest return games in women's tennis. Her speed allows her to put an extra ball into play even against elite servers, and if she can consistently make Rybakina hit a third and fourth attacking shot, the rallies become much less predictable.

The concern is Gauff's own serve. She committed 12 double faults against Andreeva and cannot afford that kind of leakage against Rybakina, who can punish second serves immediately.

Gauff holds a 2-1 head-to-head advantage, but Rybakina won their most recent meeting in Canada last month after dropping the opening set.

Odds and Line Movement

This match has moved notably toward Gauff. The earlier market had Rybakina around 1.83 and Gauff near 1.95, while current comparisons have the match close to a pick'em, with Gauff around -110 and Rybakina near even money. Over 2.5 sets is available around +105 to +110.

Rybakina's serve gives her the more reliable source of free points, but Gauff's defense and return pressure make this much closer than a simple serving-stat comparison suggests.

Prediction: Gauff wins 2-1

Best Bet - Sabalenka vs Pegula Over 2.5 Sets +120

These two know each other's patterns extremely well, and the recent rivalry has become much more competitive than the overall head-to-head suggests.

Sabalenka needed three sets to survive Noskova, Pegula needed three to eliminate Navarro, and Pegula has now beaten Sabalenka in two of their last three meetings. Sabalenka should still create the easier service games, but Pegula's return quality and ability to redirect pace give her a strong chance to take one set without needing to win the match outright.

At a plus price, the deciding-set route is the strongest wager on Thursday's semifinal card.

Prediction: Sabalenka wins 2-1