USC vs. San Diego, Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, December 9, 2025
Use Code WWWC The San Diego Toreros (3-5) return home Tuesday night for a rare spotlight opportunity as the Toreros welcome the USC Trojans (8-1) to the Jenny Craig Pavilion on ESPN2. For a San Diego team riding a four-game losing streak, this matchup is a challenge and a chance to shift the momentum on their season. As for USC, they will be looking to set back following their first setback of the season against Washington, ending an 8–0 start. Check out more free college and NBA picks on Winners and Whiners.
Bounce back opportunity for USC
USC enters this matchup at 8–1, and despite the recent loss to Washington, the Trojans have already built an impressive resume. Their early season has featured dominant offensive performances, scoring 94, 114, 107, and 88 points in key wins, and a strong showing at neutral-site events, where they defeated Boise State, Seton Hall, and Arizona State in succession.
The Trojans have leaned heavily on their dynamic backcourt, with Chad Baker-Mazara (20.9 ppg) and Rodney Rice (20.3 ppg) leading the way. Inside, Ezra Ausar provides interior scoring and efficiency at 62.2% shooting from the floor and 15.9 ppg, and Jacob Cofie has a team-best 7.0 rebounds per game and 9.9 points.
USC is 32nd in the nation overall according to KenPom. They are 25th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 39th in three-point percentage (37.8%), and 132nd from two-point range (53.4%). On defense, the Trojans are 64th in adjusted efficiency, rank 10th in block percentage (16.8%) and 50th in three-point defense (29.4%).
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Opportunity for San Diego
San Diego enters this game at 3–5 and is searching for stability after losing its last four games. During this stretch, the Toreros have struggled to defend at a consistent level, allowing 76 points or more in each loss and ranking near the bottom of Division I in defensive efficiency (287th) and defensive rebounding rate (362nd).
Offensively, San Diego lacks an elite scorer led by Juanse Gorosito (10.9 ppg), Ty-Laur Johnson (10.9 ppg), and Toneari Lane (10.6 ppg). As a team, the Toreros shot 30.8% from three (268th) and 52.4% (162nd) from two-point range. They are 14th from the free-throw line (78.8%).
This will be a big step up in competition for San Diego. They have two Division I wins this season, which came against Idaho and Grambling State. They also lost to Idaho State early, and UC Riverside, Cal Baptist, Long Beach State, and San Jose State during this losing streak. None of those teams rank within KenPom's top 125.
USC Trojans at San Diego Toreros Prediction
USC vs San Diego Pick:
- USC -16.5 (4 units)
Given USC’s offensive efficiency, depth, and advantage on the boards, this matchup sets up poorly for a San Diego team that struggles defensively and also lacks the offensive firepower to make up for it.
The Trojans excel at creating high-percentage looks, pushing pace, and converting at the free-throw line, which are three areas where the Toreros have been vulnerable.
San Diego is on a four-game losing streak, and none of those teams ' losses have come against elite competition. With USC coming off a loss and this game on the road, I don't see this as a look-ahead spot. Take the Trojans.
USC vs San Diego Total:
- Under 161.5 (4 units)
Although both teams play with pace, and USC can score in bunches, San Diego’s lack of elite scoring and poor outside shooting is going to make it tough for them to keep pace long enough to push this total high. USC has been strong at protecting the rim inside, and once they build a comfortable lead, the pace should slow late. This number is too high, go under.
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