Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday July 17 2026
Use Code WWWC The Connecticut Sun visit the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night for the first meeting between the teams this season. Connecticut enters at 6-18 after earning a 90-87 victory over Portland, while Phoenix sits at 8-17 following four consecutive losses. The Mercury are favored at home despite owning only two more victories than the Sun, creating an interesting matchup between two teams that have struggled to turn competitive performances into consistent wins.
Connecticut's record remains one of the league's weakest, but the Sun have been significantly more competitive against the spread than Phoenix throughout the season. The Mercury are also only 3-8 at home, which makes laying more than five points difficult to justify against a Connecticut team that has recently produced several respectable performances. Bettors evaluating the individual matchups can also review the latest WNBA player props before the 10:00 PM EDT tipoff.
Best Available Odds for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
- Moneyline: Connecticut Sun +180 | Phoenix Mercury -194
- Spread: Connecticut Sun +5.5 (-110) | Phoenix Mercury -5 (-105)
- Total: Over 164.5 (+100) | Under 164.5 (-110)
Odds and Line Movement
Phoenix opened as approximately a 5.5-point home favorite, but some sportsbooks have moved the Mercury closer to -5 as Friday's game approaches. That modest movement toward Connecticut is notable because the Sun remain near the bottom of the standings, yet their results against the spread have been considerably stronger than their straight-up record. Connecticut is 13-11 ATS, while Phoenix has covered only nine of 24 graded spreads.
The total has moved in the opposite direction. An opening number near 163.5 has climbed to 164.5, reflecting Connecticut's improved offensive performance against Portland and Phoenix's 100-point effort against Minnesota. Both teams have been inconsistent offensively, but neither defense has been dependable enough to make a number in the mid-160s especially intimidating.
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The moneyline is where Phoenix becomes most difficult to support. The Mercury are being priced near -200 despite winning only three of 11 home games. Connecticut is only 2-8 on the road, so the Sun are not an obvious straight-up wager based solely on venue results, but the gap between these teams is smaller than the favorite price suggests.
The current WNBA betting trends make the spread the clearest market. Connecticut has covered more than half of its graded games despite winning only six times, while Phoenix has been one of the league's least reliable teams against the number. The Sun do not need to be the better team over an entire season to provide value at +5.5. They only need to remain competitive against a Mercury team that has rarely created comfortable separation.
Game Info
- Date: Friday, July 17, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM EDT
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
- TV: ION
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Preview
Connecticut enters with renewed confidence after defeating Portland 90-87 on Tuesday. The Sun shot better than 52 percent from the field, recorded 28 assists, and generated 11 offensive rebounds in one of their most complete offensive performances of the season. Connecticut also forced 15 turnovers and produced 11 steals, giving the team enough extra possessions to survive Portland's fourth-quarter comeback.
Aaliyah Edwards led the Sun with 21 points while shooting 9-of-13 from the floor. Her ability to finish efficiently around the basket gives Connecticut another important interior option alongside Brittney Griner and Olivia Nelson-Ododa. Phoenix has struggled to defend efficiently throughout the season, and Natasha Mack's continued absence or limitation would create additional opportunities for Connecticut to attack the paint.
Griner scored 20 points against Portland and remains Connecticut's most recognizable interior scorer. Her health has been inconsistent throughout the season, but when available she gives the Sun a matchup that opponents must account for on every half-court possession. Phoenix can use size against her, but Connecticut should still look to establish Griner early and force the Mercury to collapse toward the paint.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa has also become increasingly important to the Sun's frontcourt. She is producing career-best numbers while shooting efficiently and contributing as a rebounder, passer, and defender. Connecticut can use her next to Griner or as the primary center, allowing the Sun to maintain interior size while changing the way they defend Phoenix's pick-and-roll attack.
Leïla Lacan provides the perimeter pressure that helps Connecticut turn defense into easier offense. She scored 14 points and recorded three steals against Portland, continuing a season in which her activity has been one of the team's most consistent positive developments. The Sun need that same defensive aggression against Alyssa Thomas and Phoenix's guards because the Mercury become significantly more dangerous when Thomas is allowed to control the middle of the floor without resistance.
Saniya Rivers remains unavailable, reducing Connecticut's backcourt depth and removing another athletic perimeter defender. Aneesah Morrow's availability also carries uncertainty, potentially leaving Connecticut without one of its strongest rebounders. Those absences increase the workload on Edwards, Nelson-Ododa, Griner, Diamond Miller, Lacan, and the available rotation.
The Sun's challenge is sustaining Tuesday's offensive efficiency. Connecticut ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring and three-point production, so another 90-point performance cannot be assumed. The encouraging part is that Phoenix has not defended consistently enough to force Connecticut into a completely different style.
The Mercury enter after losing 104-100 to Minnesota on Monday. The defeat extended their losing streak to four games, but the performance was considerably more encouraging than the 106-58 loss to Las Vegas that preceded it. Phoenix competed with the league's strongest team for four quarters and received balanced offensive production despite eventually falling short.
Alyssa Thomas remains the player who controls the Phoenix offense. She finished with 19 points, eight rebounds, and 12 assists against Minnesota, repeatedly creating advantages through drives, transition pushes, and passes from the middle of the floor. Connecticut knows her game particularly well after Thomas spent the majority of her career with the Sun, but familiarity does not make her easier to defend.
Thomas can attack Connecticut's available frontcourt by forcing larger defenders to move laterally and smaller defenders to absorb contact. She also creates open shots whenever opponents send additional help toward the paint. The Sun need Lacan, Miller, Edwards, and their available wings to contain the first action without forcing unnecessary rotations.
Kahleah Copper remains Phoenix's most dangerous pure scorer. She averages more than 20 points per game and gives the Mercury a player capable of changing the game through transition attacks, drives, and three-point shooting. Connecticut's perimeter defense must remain disciplined because Copper can quickly punish defenders who lose contact while focusing on Thomas.
Monique Akoa Makani provided 17 points against Minnesota while making three of five shots from beyond the arc. Her development gives Phoenix another perimeter option capable of spacing the floor and attacking weaker defenders. The Mercury need that type of secondary production because opposing teams increasingly concentrate their strongest defensive attention on Thomas and Copper.
Sami Whitcomb's status remains important because Phoenix benefits from her perimeter shooting and experience. The Mercury have lacked reliable spacing during portions of the season, and Whitcomb's availability changes how aggressively Connecticut can collapse toward Thomas. If she is unavailable or limited, the Sun can defend the paint more aggressively.
Natasha Mack's foot injury continues to affect the Phoenix frontcourt. She has been one of the team's strongest rebounders when healthy, and her absence creates additional responsibility for Thomas and the available centers. Connecticut should attack the offensive glass and attempt to create the same second-chance opportunities that helped produce the win over Portland.
Phoenix has more offensive talent than its 8-17 record suggests, but the Mercury have struggled to complete games. Their four-game losing streak includes close defeats to Indiana and Minnesota along with more damaging performances against Chicago and Las Vegas. The inconsistency makes laying five or more points particularly difficult.
Connecticut has followed a similar pattern, but the Sun have been better at remaining inside the spread. They have covered 13 of 24 games while repeatedly making stronger opponents work into the fourth quarter. That ability to remain competitive matters against a Phoenix team that has not established a dependable home-court advantage.
The matchup should be decided around the paint and the turnover battle. Connecticut wants to use its frontcourt depth, offensive rebounding, and defensive activity to create additional possessions. Phoenix wants Thomas to control the game and create efficient opportunities for Copper and the perimeter shooters.
If the Sun can prevent Phoenix from running comfortably after misses and turnovers, the game should remain close. Connecticut does not have the offensive consistency to chase a major deficit, but it has enough interior scoring to stay competitive when the game is played through the half court.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
Friday marks the first meeting between Connecticut and Phoenix during the 2026 season. The teams will immediately play again Sunday in Phoenix before meeting once more in Connecticut in August, making Friday the beginning of a condensed three-game season series.
Phoenix won two of three meetings in 2025. The Mercury earned an 83-75 victory in June and an 82-66 win in August before Connecticut responded with an 87-84 upset in September. The three games produced dramatically different totals, ranging from 148 to 171 combined points.
The September result is particularly relevant to the current pricing. Connecticut entered that game as a significant underdog but remained competitive long enough to finish the upset. The current Sun roster is different, but the broader lesson remains useful when Phoenix is asked to carry an expensive favorite price.
Connecticut also controlled the series during 2024, including a 96-69 victory in Phoenix and an 88-69 win later that season. Those results came with dramatically different rosters, so they should not carry significant predictive weight, but the recent history does show that home court has not automatically controlled this matchup.
Friday's version should revolve around Thomas facing her former team and Griner facing the franchise where she spent most of her career. Both veterans understand the opposing organizations and personnel, but the matchup will ultimately be decided by the supporting casts rather than narrative familiarity.
Connecticut's strongest advantage is its ability to play multiple interior combinations. Edwards, Griner, and Nelson-Ododa can all create scoring opportunities around the basket, while Phoenix's frontcourt depth remains reduced by Mack's injury. The Sun should make the Mercury defend physically instead of settling for a three-point contest.
Phoenix owns the superior individual perimeter scorer in Copper and the best overall playmaker in Thomas. The Mercury can create efficient offense when those two control the game, but their recent losing streak demonstrates how difficult it has been to maintain that production for four quarters.
The spread accounts for Phoenix being the more talented team, but it may overstate the difference between two struggling clubs. The Mercury are only two games better in the standings, have a losing home record, and have failed to cover 15 of 24 graded spreads.
Connecticut has shown enough recent improvement to make the points attractive. The Sun beat Portland, defeated Minnesota earlier in July, and have remained competitive in several other games despite their overall record. They do not need to produce another upset to reward bettors taking +5.5.
The total also has room to move above the current number if Connecticut's offense maintains its recent progress. Phoenix scored 100 against Minnesota, while the Sun just reached 90 against Portland. Neither performance guarantees another high-scoring game, but both defenses provide enough opportunities to make a total in the mid-160s reachable.
Game Thesis: Phoenix owns the more dynamic offensive creators, but the Mercury have not played consistently enough to justify laying more than five points against a Connecticut team that continues to perform better against the spread than its record suggests. The Sun can attack Phoenix's weakened frontcourt, create second chances, and keep the game within one or two possessions late. Connecticut is projected to win 85-83, making the Sun +5.5 the best bet.
Best Bet - Spread: Connecticut Sun +5.5 (-110)
Connecticut's 6-18 straight-up record hides a much stronger betting profile. The Sun are 13-11 against the spread, while Phoenix has covered only nine of 24 games. That difference becomes particularly important when the Mercury are being asked to win by multiple possessions despite owning a 3-8 home record.
The Sun are also coming off one of their strongest offensive performances of the season. Connecticut scored 90 against Portland while producing 28 assists and shooting above 52 percent. A repeat of that efficiency is unlikely, but Phoenix's defense is vulnerable enough for Connecticut to remain productive.
Phoenix has lost four consecutive games and has repeatedly struggled to finish competitive matchups. The Mercury can still win Friday, but their recent form does not support confidence in a comfortable margin.
Connecticut's frontcourt gives the Sun a reliable route to staying close. Griner, Edwards, and Nelson-Ododa can attack inside while creating second chances against a Phoenix team missing or limiting one of its strongest rebounders. The +5.5 provides enough protection even if Thomas and Copper eventually create the decisive late possessions.
Moneyline Pick: Connecticut Sun (+180)
The spread is the stronger wager, but Connecticut is also the more attractive moneyline price. Phoenix is only 3-8 at home and enters on a four-game losing streak, making a price near -200 difficult to support.
Connecticut has already shown that it can defeat better teams than Phoenix. The Sun beat Minnesota on the road earlier this month and are coming off another victory over Portland. Their overall record remains poor, but they have enough size and defensive activity to create an upset when the offense reaches a respectable level.
Phoenix remains dangerous because Thomas and Copper are the two best individual creators in the matchup. The Mercury should be favored, but the current price places too much confidence in a team that has struggled to win consistently anywhere, including at home.
Taking Connecticut at plus money is an aggressive position, but it aligns with the spread read. The Sun have a realistic chance to keep the game close into the final possessions, where the difference between these teams becomes significantly smaller than the market suggests.
Total Pick: Over 164.5 (+100)
The over is a secondary position rather than the strongest wager, but the current number remains reachable. Connecticut has played 13 of 24 graded games over, while Phoenix is evenly split at 12-12.
Both teams also enter after improved offensive performances. Connecticut scored 90 against Portland, while Phoenix reached 100 against Minnesota. The Sun produced 28 assists in their latest game, and the Mercury created enough efficient offense through Thomas and Copper to challenge the league's best team.
Neither defense has been strong enough to require exceptional shooting for this game to reach the upper 160s. Connecticut can attack the paint and offensive glass, while Phoenix has multiple perimeter creators capable of punishing defensive rotations.
A projected 85-83 final produces 168 points. That gives the over a modest margin while remaining consistent with a competitive game in which both teams find enough offense to stay within reach throughout the fourth quarter.
Top Player Prop Picks for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 Points (-115): Thomas scored 19 points against Minnesota and should again control a significant share of Phoenix's possessions. Connecticut knows her tendencies well, but the Sun still lack an obvious individual defender capable of keeping her away from the paint without additional help.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa Over 7.5 Rebounds (+107): Nelson-Ododa continues to play an expanded role and should have opportunities on the glass against a Phoenix frontcourt dealing with Mack's foot injury. Connecticut has also become more comfortable using multiple bigs together, which allows Nelson-Ododa to remain active around the rim without carrying every interior defensive responsibility.
Kahleah Copper Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+122): Copper remains Phoenix's most dangerous perimeter scorer and should receive enough volume in a competitive game to challenge this number. Connecticut's attention toward Thomas in the paint can create additional catch-and-shoot opportunities when the Sun's rotations arrive late.
Prediction: Connecticut Sun 85, Phoenix Mercury 83
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