Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday July 19 2026
Use Code WWWC The Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury meet for the second time in three nights Sunday evening after Connecticut produced a convincing 96-83 victory in Friday's series opener. The Sun improved to 7-18 with the win, while Phoenix fell to 8-18 and extended its losing streak to five games. Despite that result, the Mercury remain favored at home for the immediate rematch.
The market has reduced Phoenix's advantage, but the current numbers still ask bettors to trust a team that has struggled badly during the past two weeks. Connecticut has now won three of its last five and has covered more consistently than Phoenix throughout the season. Bettors evaluating the individual matchups can also review the latest WNBA player props before the 7:00 PM EDT tipoff.
Best Available Odds for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
- Moneyline: Connecticut Sun +140 | Phoenix Mercury -160
- Spread: Connecticut Sun +3.5 (-105) | Phoenix Mercury -3.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 167.5 (-105) | Under 167.5 (-110)
Odds and Line Movement
Phoenix has been listed as high as a five-point favorite in earlier market snapshots, but Sunday's rematch has shortened to approximately -3.5 after Connecticut's 13-point victory Friday. That move reflects the immediate evidence from the first game and Phoenix's broader five-game losing streak.
The total has moved in the opposite direction. Earlier numbers for this matchup series sat in the mid-160s, while Sunday's market has climbed to 167.5 after the teams combined for 179 points Friday.
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The season spread trends strongly favor Connecticut. The Sun are 14-11 against the number, while Phoenix has fallen to 9-16. That is one of the largest ATS differences on Sunday's slate and becomes particularly relevant when the better-performing spread team is also receiving points.
The total trends lean slightly toward the over. Connecticut has produced 14 overs in 25 graded games, while Phoenix sits at 13-12. Both teams have shown more offensive life during the past week, and the first meeting demonstrated that Connecticut can score efficiently against this Mercury defense.
The latest WNBA betting trends therefore support the Sun as the stronger side and the over as the secondary angle. Phoenix's current favorite status is difficult to justify after losing five consecutive games and dropping Friday's matchup by double digits.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM EDT
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
- TV: ESPN
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Preview
Connecticut enters with legitimate momentum after beating Portland and Phoenix in consecutive games. The Sun have spent most of the season near the bottom of the standings, but their recent performances show a team that is beginning to find more reliable offensive combinations.
Friday's 96-point performance was particularly important because Connecticut has struggled to score consistently throughout the season. The Sun attacked Phoenix inside, moved the ball effectively, and prevented the Mercury from controlling the game through transition.
Brittney Griner remains Connecticut's most recognizable interior scorer. Her efficiency around the basket forces Phoenix to defend physically and prevents the Mercury from switching smaller lineups without consequences.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa has also continued developing into one of the league's most productive role players. She is averaging career highs across several categories and gives Connecticut a reliable finisher who does not require high-volume touches to affect the game.
Aneesah Morrow remains unavailable because of return-to-play conditioning, which removes Connecticut's leading rebounder. That increases the importance of Nelson-Ododa, Griner, and Aaliyah Edwards on the glass.
Leïla Lacan has become increasingly important as the primary perimeter creator. She now averages more than 13 points and four assists while providing elite defensive activity. Her ability to create turnovers was a major part of Connecticut's recent improvement.
Saniya Rivers is dealing with an ankle issue, potentially reducing another source of athleticism in the Sun backcourt. Even with those limitations, Connecticut has found enough depth to remain competitive.
Phoenix enters from the opposite direction. The Mercury have lost five consecutive games and are struggling to translate individual offensive talent into consistent team results.
Alyssa Thomas remains the center of everything Phoenix does. She averages roughly 14.5 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists while controlling possessions from multiple positions. Her familiarity with Connecticut gives the matchup an additional layer, but the Sun successfully limited Phoenix's overall offense Friday despite Thomas' versatility.
Kahleah Copper remains the Mercury's most dangerous pure scorer. She averages more than 20 points per game and provides the athleticism necessary to attack Connecticut before its interior defense becomes established.
The challenge is creating efficient support around Thomas and Copper. Phoenix has struggled to receive consistent secondary scoring, particularly when injuries affect the available frontcourt and perimeter rotation.
Natasha Mack continues dealing with a foot issue, while Sami Whitcomb has been managing a knee problem. Kyara Linskens is also dealing with a knee issue, leaving Phoenix with uncertainty around several rotation pieces.
That reduced depth matters more in the second game of a two-game set. Connecticut already demonstrated which matchups it can attack, and Phoenix has had only one day to adjust.
The Mercury should attempt to increase defensive pressure against Lacan and force Connecticut's secondary guards to create. Phoenix cannot allow the Sun to enter their half-court sets comfortably and repeatedly feed the interior.
Connecticut's path is much simpler. The Sun should continue attacking the paint, controlling the glass through their available bigs, and making Phoenix prove that its secondary scorers can win the game.
The first matchup also showed Connecticut's confidence. The Sun did not play like a team intimidated by Phoenix's home court or favorite status. They controlled long stretches and finished the game comfortably.
Phoenix should produce a stronger effort in the rematch, but the Mercury's recent form makes it difficult to assume an immediate reversal. Five consecutive losses represent more than one poor shooting night.
The matchup should remain competitive into the fourth quarter. Connecticut has enough size to prevent Phoenix from dominating inside, while Lacan's defensive pressure can disrupt Thomas and the Mercury guards.
The current spread provides additional protection if Phoenix responds with a narrow victory. Connecticut does not need to repeat Friday's upset to cash at +3.5.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
The most relevant historical result happened Friday night. Connecticut entered Phoenix as an underdog and won 96-83, creating immediate questions about the Mercury's ability to justify favorite status in the rematch.
The Sun shot efficiently and repeatedly attacked Phoenix's defensive weaknesses. The 13-point margin was not created by one late run but by Connecticut consistently controlling the matchup.
Phoenix had previously won two of three meetings during the 2025 season, but Connecticut captured the final matchup 87-84. The recent series has therefore become more competitive than the broader records of the teams might suggest.
Sunday's quick turnaround creates a different type of challenge. Phoenix has the opportunity to make immediate tactical adjustments, but Connecticut also enters with fresh confidence and a clear understanding of where the favorable matchups exist.
The Sun's strongest advantage remains their spread performance. Connecticut is 14-11 ATS despite owning only seven outright victories, demonstrating how often the team remains more competitive than its record suggests.
Phoenix has produced the opposite profile. The Mercury are 9-16 against the spread and have repeatedly failed to justify favorite prices.
The venue records also fail to create a strong argument for Phoenix. The Mercury are only 3-9 at home, while Connecticut has improved to 3-8 away after Friday's victory.
That makes the moneyline price particularly interesting. Connecticut is available at plus money despite already proving it can win this matchup in the same building.
The total has risen because of Friday's 179-point result, but the number remains reachable. Connecticut has shown improved offensive execution, while Phoenix still possesses enough individual scorers to contribute significantly more than 83.
The rematch should become more competitive, but that does not necessarily mean lower scoring. Phoenix may increase its pace and offensive aggression after being controlled Friday, creating additional possessions for both sides.
Game Thesis: Phoenix should respond with greater urgency, but the Mercury have lost five consecutive games and remain one of the league's worst spread teams. Connecticut has won two straight, covered consistently throughout the season, and already demonstrated a clear matchup advantage in Friday's 96-83 victory. The Sun are projected to win 88-84, making Connecticut +3.5 the best bet.
Best Bet - Connecticut Sun +3.5 (-105)
Connecticut is 14-11 against the spread, while Phoenix is only 9-16. That difference alone makes the Sun attractive when they are also receiving points against a team they just defeated by 13.
The quick rematch should produce adjustments from Phoenix, but the Mercury's five-game losing streak makes it difficult to assume those changes will immediately solve their broader problems.
Connecticut has also improved offensively. The Sun have scored 90 and 96 in consecutive victories, giving them enough production to support their defensive competitiveness.
The points provide protection if Phoenix responds with a narrow home victory, while Connecticut has already shown a realistic path to winning outright.
Moneyline Pick: Connecticut Sun (+140)
Connecticut is the preferred moneyline side at plus money. The Sun have won three of their last five and already beat Phoenix in the same building Friday.
Phoenix is only 3-9 at home and enters on a five-game losing streak. A -160 price asks bettors to trust a team that has repeatedly failed to close games or justify favorite status.
The Sun still carry substantial risk because of their season-long offensive inconsistency, but the current form and matchup support the underdog price.
Total Pick: Over 167.5 (-105)
The number has increased after Friday's 179-point game, but both teams continue to provide a path toward the upper 160s or low 170s.
Connecticut has shown significant offensive improvement during its two-game winning streak, while Phoenix should play with greater aggression after being controlled in the first meeting.
Thomas and Copper give the Mercury enough scoring and playmaking to improve on Friday's 83 points, while the Sun have already demonstrated that they can approach 100 against this defense.
A projected 88-84 result produces 172 points and gives the over a reasonable margin.
Top Player Prop Picks for Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists (+109): Thomas remains Phoenix's primary creator and should carry an even larger playmaking burden as the Mercury attempt to adjust from Friday's loss. Connecticut's interior size may force Thomas to distribute rather than finish every possession herself.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa Over 10.5 Points (+100): Nelson-Ododa continues to produce efficiently in an expanded role and should receive additional opportunities with Morrow unavailable. The even-money price is attractive for a player shooting nearly 60 percent from the field.
Alyssa Thomas Over 14.5 Points (-107): Phoenix needs Thomas to attack more aggressively after another loss. Her combination of minutes, usage, and free-throw opportunities gives her a strong chance to reach at least 15 points in a competitive rematch.
Prediction: Connecticut Sun 88, Phoenix Mercury 84
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