Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
Use Code WWWC The Wings visit Las Vegas seeking a third straight win over the Aces after beating the defending champions twice in Dallas.
This preview breaks down the latest lines, injuries, matchup trends, and top WNBA player props for Thursday night's game.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Dallas Wings (+185 at BetMGM) / Las Vegas Aces (-225 at BetMGM)
Best Spread Odds: Dallas Wings +5.5 (-110 at Caesars) / Las Vegas Aces -5.5 (-102 at BetMGM)
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Best Total Odds: Over 177.5 (-110 at Caesars) / Under 178.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Game Info
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM EDT
Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: NBA TV, KFAA-TV, Vegas 34
Dallas Wings vs Las Vegas Aces Preview
The Dallas Wings enter Thursday at 11-6 after winning consecutive games and seven of their last 10.
Dallas earned its latest victory Monday with a 112-110 overtime win over the Seattle Storm.
Paige Bueckers scored 27 points, while Azzi Fudd added a career-high 26 and made the go-ahead basket with 13.2 seconds remaining in overtime.
Dallas needed nearly all of that production after allowing Seattle to erase a double-digit deficit and score 110 points.
The Wings made a WNBA-record 48 field goals but allowed the Storm to shoot better than 50% from the field.
That defensive performance continued a concerning recent pattern.
Dallas has allowed 91, 92, and 96 points in regulation during its last three games. Opponents shot approximately 48% from the field and better than 41% from three-point range during that stretch.
The Wings still won two of those games because their offense produced late comebacks against Chicago and Seattle.
That approach becomes more dangerous against Las Vegas. The Aces possess more experienced late-game creators and a frontcourt built around A'ja Wilson.
Bueckers remains the centre of the Dallas offense.
She enters averaging approximately 19.3 points and 6.1 assists while shooting above 40% from three-point range.
Bueckers has also made at least two three-pointers in both meetings with Las Vegas this season.
Her ability to create without dominating every possession is central to Dallas' balance. She can score from the mid-range area, attack switches, or move the ball toward Fudd, Arike Ogunbowale, and Jessica Shepard.
Bueckers was especially aggressive against Seattle. She scored 17 of her 27 points during the closing minutes of regulation and overtime.
Dallas may not need the same volume Thursday, but the Wings need her to control the game whenever Las Vegas applies pressure to their secondary ball handlers.
Fudd gives Dallas another elite perimeter shooter.
She made 11 of 17 field-goal attempts against Seattle and finished with four steals.
Fudd has grown into a larger offensive role since joining the starting lineup. Her movement without the ball prevents opponents from focusing exclusively on Bueckers.
Las Vegas has struggled to defend the three-point line throughout the season. The Aces rank near the bottom of the league in opponent three-pointers and opponent three-point percentage.
That weakness contributed to both Dallas victories in the season series.
Fudd scored 22 points during the first meeting, making three three-pointers and repeatedly punishing Las Vegas for helping toward the paint.
Ogunbowale led Dallas during the second meeting with 22 points and five made three-pointers.
The veteran guard gives the Wings another scorer who can create independently late in the shot clock.
Her role has changed because Dallas no longer needs her to initiate every important possession. Bueckers, Shepard, and Fudd can all create, allowing Ogunbowale to attack more favourable matchups.
Shepard remains the most important matchup-specific player.
She averages approximately 14.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 5.6 assists.
Those numbers place her among the league's most productive all-around frontcourt players.
Shepard recorded 22 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists during Dallas' 95-87 victory over Las Vegas on May 28.
She followed that performance with 15 points, 15 rebounds, and nine assists during the 96-66 win on June 15.
Shepard therefore enters Thursday averaging 18.5 points, 17.5 rebounds, and 9.5 assists against the Aces this season.
Her impact extends beyond the box score.
Shepard can initiate offense from the high post, screen for Bueckers, locate cutters, and attack the offensive glass without stopping the movement of the possession.
Las Vegas has struggled to decide whether to defend her with Wilson, NaLyssa Smith, or a smaller forward.
Placing Wilson on Shepard can reduce Wilson's freedom as a help defender. Using another defender allows Shepard to attack the glass or create from the elbows.
Dallas will need an even larger frontcourt contribution because Alanna Smith is out in concussion protocol.
Smith has been part of the group used to defend Wilson during the first two meetings.
Her absence removes an experienced forward with enough size and mobility to contest Wilson without requiring an immediate double-team.
Awak Kuier should receive an increased defensive role.
Kuier possesses the length and athleticism required to stay in front of Wilson and contest her turnaround jumper.
Li Yueru may also play additional minutes.
Yueru scored 10 points against Seattle and provides Dallas with another physical rebounder. She is better suited to defending traditional post players than Wilson's face-up game, but her size can help protect Shepard from foul trouble.
Alysha Clark is probable with a left-leg issue.
Clark's expected availability gives Dallas an experienced wing defender and another floor-spacing option.
Odyssey Sims remains out with an ankle injury, reducing the available backcourt depth behind Bueckers, Ogunbowale, Fudd, and Sug Sutton.
Dallas averages approximately 89.4 points per game while allowing 84.9.
The Wings also average 90.3 points across their last 10 games while producing a 7-3 record.
That combination of efficiency and balance has already allowed Dallas to surpass its entire 2025 win total.
The Wings are 5-4 on the road and 6-4 against Western Conference opponents.
Thursday provides a more difficult environment than the first two meetings, which were both played at College Park Center.
Dallas has not defeated the Aces in Las Vegas since 2018.
The current Wings roster is substantially different from the teams responsible for that history. Dallas now possesses multiple creators, elite shooting, and a frontcourt playmaker who has consistently caused Las Vegas problems.
The Las Vegas Aces enter at 12-5 after suffering an 87-76 home loss against the New York Liberty.
Las Vegas never led and struggled to generate its normal offensive rhythm.
Jackie Young finished with 19 points and seven assists, while Wilson recorded 16 points, nine rebounds, five assists, and four steals.
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus supplied 14 points from the bench, and Chelsea Gray added 11.
The Aces shot poorly from three-point range and could not complete their fourth-quarter comeback.
Las Vegas cut the deficit to eight with fewer than three minutes remaining, but New York responded with consecutive three-pointers.
The loss dropped the Aces to 4-3 at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Las Vegas remains one of the league's strongest overall teams.
The Aces have won eight of their last 10 while averaging 88 points and allowing 83.8.
They also lead the Western Conference with approximately 23.3 assists per game.
Gray drives that ball movement.
She averages approximately 7.3 assists and remains one of the league's most controlled pick-and-roll operators.
Gray can slow the game, identify the preferred matchup, and deliver the ball to Wilson before the defense completes its rotation.
Dallas limited her influence during the second meeting by pressuring the ball and switching selected actions.
The Wings cannot assume the same approach will work without Smith. Additional help toward Wilson can create easier passing lanes for Gray.
Young has become Las Vegas' leading secondary scorer and creator.
She is averaging approximately 19.5 points and 7.5 assists during the past 10 games.
Young can attack smaller guards, finish through contact, and punish defenses that send excessive attention toward Wilson.
She led Las Vegas against New York and should again carry a substantial offensive role Thursday.
The Aces are missing several backcourt and wing options.
Chennedy Carter is out with an illness. The original draft incorrectly described her as expected to return.
Dana Evans is doubtful with a left-leg injury, while rookie Janiah Barker is out with a right-leg issue.
Those absences reduce Las Vegas' perimeter depth and place greater responsibility on Gray, Young, Jewell Loyd, and the available reserves.
Loyd has settled into a smaller scoring role than during previous seasons.
She remains capable of creating a major perimeter performance, but Las Vegas has often used her as a secondary shooter rather than a full-time initiator.
The injuries may increase her minutes and shot volume.
NaLyssa Smith gives Las Vegas another frontcourt scorer beside Wilson.
Smith can finish around the rim, rebound, and attack when Dallas sends multiple defenders toward Wilson.
Parker-Tyus also earned a larger opportunity against New York and responded with 14 points.
The Aces need that depth because Dallas has controlled the frontcourt matchup through Shepard.
Wilson remains the central figure.
She enters averaging approximately 25.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and more than two blocks.
Wilson can score through post-ups, face-up drives, transition attacks, offensive rebounds, and mid-range jumpers.
Most opponents cannot contain every part of that profile.
Dallas has succeeded by defending Wilson collectively rather than assigning the responsibility to one player.
She scored 21 points on 10-for-24 shooting during the first meeting and 18 during the second.
Those performances remain productive by normal standards, but both finished below her current scoring line.
The loss of Smith gives Wilson a more favourable matchup Thursday.
Dallas may need to use Kuier and Shepard for longer defensive stretches while sending guards toward the ball after Wilson begins her move.
That help can create open shots for Young, Gray, Loyd, and Smith.
Las Vegas averages 89.2 points while allowing 85.8.
The Aces' scoring average is nearly identical to Dallas', but their defense has been less efficient over the full season.
Las Vegas ranks behind Dallas in both net rating and defensive rating.
The Aces have also struggled to reward bettors at home.
They enter 2-5 against the spread when favoured at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
That record becomes relevant with the current spread sitting more than five points away from a one-possession game.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
Dallas has won both meetings between these teams during the 2026 season.
The Wings earned a 95-87 victory on May 28.
Shepard produced a historic triple-double with 22 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists.
Fudd scored 22 during her first WNBA start, while Bueckers added 20 points and six assists.
Wilson led Las Vegas with 21 points but required 24 field-goal attempts.
Young added 15 points and seven assists.
Dallas controlled the rebounding battle and generated enough three-point shooting to create separation during the second half.
The Wings were even more dominant on June 15.
Dallas won 96-66 after using a 23-6 second quarter to take control.
Ogunbowale led the game with 22 points and five made three-pointers.
Shepard nearly recorded another triple-double, finishing with 15 points, 15 rebounds, and nine assists.
Dallas held Wilson to 18 points and limited the Aces to their lowest offensive total of the season.
The 30-point result represented the largest Dallas victory over Las Vegas in franchise history.
The first meeting produced 182 total points. The second produced only 162.
The average total of 172 sits below Thursday's current market.
Las Vegas has won seven of the last 10 overall meetings, but the current Dallas roster is responsible for both recent results.
The Aces must solve Shepard's playmaking and rebounding while preventing Bueckers, Fudd, and Ogunbowale from receiving clean perimeter attempts.
Dallas must reproduce its team defense against Wilson without Smith.
The Wings also need to correct the defensive slippage that allowed three consecutive opponents to score more than 90 points in regulation.
Game Thesis: Dallas has already demonstrated that it can control this matchup through Shepard's all-around production, perimeter shooting, and collective defense against Wilson. Las Vegas possesses the stronger home-court environment and should benefit from Smith's absence, but the Aces are also missing Carter and Barker, with Evans doubtful. The current spread gives Dallas more than five points despite two outright victories and the stronger season-long net rating. Dallas +5.5 is the strongest wager. The Wings are also worth a smaller moneyline position at +185. Both current-season meetings averaged 172 points, and the absences reduce each team's available rotation, supporting Under 178.5.
Moneyline Pick: Dallas Wings (+185)
Dallas offers the more attractive moneyline value.
The Wings have defeated Las Vegas twice and did not require a final-possession coin flip in either game.
They won the first meeting by eight before producing a 30-point victory during the rematch.
Dallas also ranks ahead of Las Vegas in net rating and defensive rating.
The teams are separated by only one game in the standings, making an implied probability below 36% difficult to justify solely through home court.
Shepard has been the most influential player in the season series.
She has controlled the glass, initiated offense, and forced Las Vegas to change its defensive matchups.
Bueckers, Fudd, and Ogunbowale give Dallas three perimeter scorers capable of attacking whichever defender Las Vegas attempts to hide.
The Aces' perimeter depth is also reduced.
Carter and Barker are out, while Evans is doubtful. Gray and Young may need to play extended minutes and carry most of the ball-handling responsibility.
Las Vegas deserves to remain favoured because of Wilson and home court.
Smith's absence removes one of Dallas' preferred Wilson defenders, and the Wings have recently allowed opponents to score efficiently.
Those factors make Dallas less likely to produce another comfortable victory.
The price creates the value. Dallas does not need to be the more likely winner for +185 to represent a worthwhile position.
A projected result around 87-85 gives the Wings a realistic path to a third consecutive victory.
⭐ Best Bet - Spread Pick: Dallas Wings +5.5 (-110)
Dallas +5.5 is the strongest game wager.
The spread provides protection in a matchup the Wings have already won twice outright.
Dallas can lose by five and still cover.
That cushion matters because Las Vegas remains capable of winning through late execution from Wilson, Gray, and Young.
The Wings have enough scoring balance to prevent the Aces from creating easy separation.
Bueckers can control late possessions, Fudd can stretch the defense, and Ogunbowale can generate an independent shot when the initial action fails.
Shepard gives Dallas an additional creator from the frontcourt.
Las Vegas cannot simply pressure the guards and expect the offense to stop. Shepard can receive the ball near the elbow and initiate the next action.
Dallas also possesses the better season-long defensive rating despite its recent decline.
The Wings held Las Vegas to 66 points only 10 days before this meeting.
Another performance at that extreme is unlikely, especially without Smith.
Dallas does not need another defensive masterpiece to cover more than five points.
Las Vegas is only 2-5 against the spread as a home favourite.
The Aces are also 4-3 straight up at home, compared with an 8-2 road record.
Michelob ULTRA Arena has therefore not created the dominant results normally associated with this franchise.
The primary risk is Wilson producing a substantially better performance against Dallas' reduced frontcourt.
She can force Shepard and Kuier into foul trouble, opening the paint for a larger Las Vegas margin.
The Aces can also create transition points if Dallas repeats the live-ball turnovers and poor defensive recovery seen against Seattle.
The spread remains too wide for a matchup in which Dallas has repeatedly created the more favourable game structure.
Total Pick: Under 178.5 (-110)
Under 178.5 is preferable to the original Over recommendation.
The first two meetings produced an average of 172 points.
Las Vegas scored only 87 during the opener before falling to 66 during the rematch.
Dallas has consistently forced the Aces into difficult half-court possessions.
The Wings send multiple defenders toward Wilson after she begins her move rather than allowing her to identify the double-team in advance.
That approach has reduced her efficiency without automatically creating open shots for every teammate.
Las Vegas also enters without Carter and Barker, while Evans is doubtful.
Those absences reduce the Aces' ability to maintain offensive creation when Gray or Young rests.
Dallas is missing Sims and Smith.
Sims' absence reduces backcourt depth, while Smith's absence may force Shepard and Kuier into heavier minutes.
Both teams may therefore use shorter rotations and more controlled half-court possessions.
Las Vegas allows approximately 85.8 points per game. Dallas allows 84.9.
Those defensive averages produce a combined expectation significantly below a total near 179.
The strongest Over argument comes from Dallas' recent defensive decline.
The Wings have allowed more than 90 points in three consecutive games, and Seattle scored 110 after overtime.
Dallas also averages approximately 90 points during its past 10 games.
Las Vegas is capable of forcing another high-scoring environment if Wilson establishes early interior control.
The Aces' latest result provides a counterpoint. They scored only 76 against New York and struggled to generate open perimeter attempts.
The total also sits above both current-season head-to-head results except for the 182-point opener.
Under 178.5 gives the wager room for a competitive game in the high 80s.
Projected finals such as 87-85, 88-86, or 89-87 all remain below the number.
Top Player Prop Picks
Jessica Shepard Over 11.5 Rebounds (-120) Shepard has dominated the glass during both meetings with Las Vegas.
She recorded 20 rebounds during the first game and 15 during the second.
Those performances produce an average of 17.5 rebounds against the Aces.
Shepard enters averaging approximately 11.1 rebounds for the season and 11.8 across her last 10 games.
The current line requires 12.
Smith's absence should increase Shepard's frontcourt responsibility.
Dallas may need her to play additional minutes and remain close to the basket whenever Kuier or Yueru defends Wilson.
Shepard also creates offensive-rebound opportunities through her own playmaking.
When she initiates from the high post, she can follow cutters and guards toward the rim after delivering the pass.
Las Vegas must devote attention toward Bueckers, Fudd, and Ogunbowale on the perimeter.
That spacing can leave Shepard with inside position when shots go up.
The Aces average fewer rebounds than Dallas and have struggled to finish defensive possessions during portions of the season.
Wilson remains an elite rebounder, while Smith, Parker-Tyus, and Young can all contribute on the glass.
Foul trouble presents the largest risk.
Shepard may receive more direct Wilson assignments without Smith, creating additional opportunities to commit early fouls.
Her season average and extraordinary head-to-head production still support Over 11.5 rebounds.
Paige Bueckers Over 5.5 Assists (-115) Bueckers enters averaging approximately 6.1 assists per game.
She has several high-level scoring options around her.
Fudd is coming off a 26-point performance, Ogunbowale scored 22 during the previous meeting with Las Vegas, and Shepard is one of the league's most effective finishing and passing centres.
The Aces should pressure Bueckers earlier than they did during the first two meetings.
Sending a second defender toward her can reduce her scoring volume but creates passing opportunities.
Bueckers does not force shots when the defense changes the possession.
She is comfortable moving the ball toward Shepard and relocating for a later action.
Las Vegas also allows opponents to make a high number of three-pointers.
Open attempts for Fudd and Ogunbowale can quickly produce assists after Bueckers collapses the initial defender.
The expected close game supports a full workload.
Bueckers played more than 38 minutes against Seattle and controlled nearly every important possession during the fourth quarter and overtime.
Dallas should again keep her on the floor throughout the closing minutes.
The primary concern is scoring aggression.
Bueckers may decide to attack Wilson and the Aces through her own shot after scoring 27 against Seattle.
She can still reach six assists without reducing her field-goal volume substantially.
Her season average, role, and surrounding shooting support Over 5.5 assists.
A'ja Wilson Under 25.5 Points (+105 at Caesars) Wilson remains the most talented scorer in the matchup, but Dallas has defended her effectively twice.
She scored 21 points during the first meeting and 18 during the second.
Both performances stayed below the current number.
Dallas has avoided relying on one defender.
Shepard, Kuier, Smith, and the available guards have shown Wilson different coverages and sent help after she commits to her move.
Smith is unavailable Thursday, creating a more difficult assignment.
Kuier and Shepard still give Dallas two defenders with enough size to contest Wilson without immediately surrendering position.
Yueru can absorb selected post possessions and help protect the preferred defenders from foul trouble.
Dallas may also force the ball toward Gray, Young, and Loyd rather than allowing Wilson to generate repeated isolation attempts.
That approach does not require stopping Las Vegas completely.
The Aces can remain competitive through balanced scoring while Wilson finishes in the low 20s.
Wilson scored only 16 against New York during her latest game.
That result gives her strong bounce-back potential, but it also demonstrates that disciplined help defense can limit her shot quality.
The Under carries substantial risk because Smith's absence may create easier interior opportunities.
Wilson also attempts enough free throws to clear the line during an inefficient shooting game.
The plus-money price compensates for those concerns.
Dallas has held Wilson below 26 points in both meetings, making Under 25.5 compatible with the Wings spread and game total positions.
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