Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday September 21 2026

Today's Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury picks for Monday, September 21, 2026, come from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. Dallas enters at 26-16 after beating the Mercury 87-82 on Saturday, while Phoenix is 15-27 and gets an immediate chance to respond in the second half of the home-and-home set.

Dallas is favored by 5.5 points on the current board, with the total set at 174. Bettors reviewing Monday's WNBA picks get a significantly better Under number than the broader market, which has moved into the low 170s. The available WNBA player props should also account for Kahleah Copper's improving status and Dallas's shortened frontcourt before the 10:00 PM EDT tipoff.

Best Available Odds for Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury

• Spread: Dallas Wings -5.5 | Phoenix Mercury +5.5
• Total: 174

Game Info

• Date: Monday, September 21, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM EDT / 7:00 PM MST
• Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
• TV: USA Network, KFAA-TV, Merc+, Arizona Family Sports
• Key Availability: Dallas is without Alanna Smith and Azzi Fudd. Phoenix has Kelsey Plum out for the season, while Kahleah Copper is expected to be available after missing recent action.

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Preview

Dallas has become one of the hottest teams in the league at exactly the right time.

The Wings have won six straight and enter Monday at 26-16 after beating Phoenix 87-82 on Saturday. Paige Bueckers scored 26 points in that win and continued a late-season surge that has moved Dallas securely into the playoff field.

The Wings scored only 87 on Saturday and struggled through parts of the second half, but they still controlled enough defensive possessions to prevent Phoenix from completing the comeback.

Bueckers remains the primary creator. Her combination of scoring, passing and late-game decision-making gives Dallas a reliable answer when the offense slows down.

Arike Ogunbowale gives the Wings another perimeter scorer who can create without needing a set play. Jessica Shepard adds rebounding and playmaking from the frontcourt.

Dallas is still missing Alanna Smith, which weakens the interior defense, and Azzi Fudd remains out after a knee procedure.

Phoenix took advantage of some of those gaps Saturday.

Alyssa Thomas finished with 19 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, controlling long stretches of the game as a scorer and facilitator.

Thomas is the player Dallas has to solve again Monday. She can punish smaller defenders in the post, push the ball after rebounds and create open threes when the Wings collapse toward the paint.

The Mercury may also get more from Copper, who has been working back from injury. Her availability raises Phoenix's offensive ceiling because she is one of the few guards on the roster who can consistently create a shot against a set defense.

Kelsey Plum remains out for the season, however, leaving Phoenix without another high-volume perimeter scorer.

Dallas leads 2-0. The Wings won 85-70 in June and followed with Saturday's 87-82 victory.

Neither meeting reached 170 combined points.

That is the most important fact for the Monday total.

Dallas has gone 17-24 O/U this season, one of the strongest Under profiles in the league. Phoenix is closer to neutral at 21-20 O/U.

The Wings' recent games have also leaned lower because their defense has improved while their offense has become more controlled late in the season.

The current board offers 174, which is materially higher than the broader market.

Most current numbers are around 171.5 to 172.5. That gives an Under bettor between one and a half and two and a half extra points at the captured price.

The line movement has gone in the opposite direction from the early market. Some openers were around 171.5 before the total moved higher at certain books, while other current markets have settled back near 172.

The captured 174 is therefore the number to attack rather than chasing the lower consensus.

The spread also offers value at Dallas -5.5. Other books have moved between -5.5 and -6.5, and the Wings have already beaten Phoenix twice.

Dallas is 20-20 ATS, while Phoenix is 17-24. The Wings have been the better team straight up and against the number.

The WNBA betting trends still make the total the stronger position.

Saturday's 169 combined points came with Thomas producing a triple-double and Bueckers scoring efficiently. The game did not stay low because the stars played poorly. It stayed low because neither team created enough easy scoring outside its primary options.

That structure should remain similar Monday.

Dallas can force Phoenix into longer half-court possessions, while the Mercury have every reason to slow the game and keep Bueckers out of transition.

Phoenix also plays better when Thomas can control the tempo. A faster game puts more pressure on the Mercury's thinner perimeter rotation and gives Dallas more chances to create separation.

Dallas should be able to take away some of the passing windows Thomas exploited, while Phoenix can send earlier help toward Bueckers and Ogunbowale.

The best-case Over scenario requires Dallas to approach the mid-90s or Phoenix to produce one of its more efficient offensive games of the season.

Neither outcome is impossible, especially if Copper plays heavy minutes. The current price still gives enough protection for a normal scoring night.

Game Thesis: Dallas is the stronger side and deserves favorite status, but the total is the cleaner betting opportunity. Both season meetings stayed below 170, Dallas owns a 17-24 O/U record and the captured 174 sits well above the broader market. Under 174 is the preferred wager.

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Best Bet - Total: Under 174

The first two meetings finished with 155 and 169 combined points.

Dallas has developed one of the league's strongest Under profiles, and Saturday's rematch did not require poor performances from the stars to stay below this number.

The Wings can still score in the upper 80s and leave plenty of room if Phoenix remains in the low 80s.

The most important advantage is the line itself. A 174 total is significantly better for Under bettors than the 171.5 to 172.5 available across much of the broader market.

Copper's expected availability creates some additional scoring risk, but Plum remains out and Phoenix still relies heavily on Thomas to organize the offense.

Under 174 is the strongest position.

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury Spread Pick: Dallas Wings -5.5

Dallas has won both meetings and enters on a six-game winning streak.

The Wings are the more reliable straight-up team, and the current -5.5 is preferable to the -6.5 available at other books.

Phoenix can keep the game competitive through Thomas and Copper, but Dallas has more dependable perimeter creation late in possessions.

Dallas -5.5 is a secondary play behind the total.

Prediction: Dallas Wings 88, Phoenix Mercury 80