Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC The WNBA playoffs continue on Sunday when the Indiana Fever visit the Las Vegas Aces for the first game of their best-of-five semifinals series. Indiana reached the semifinals with a 2-1 series victory over Atlanta, losing the first game and winning each of the next two, including an 87-85 win on the road in the third and deciding game. Las Vegas was extended to three games by Seattle, but won game 3 74-73 on Friday. Indiana will play without Chloe Bibby, Caitlin Clark, Sydney Colson, Sophie Cunningham, AariMcDonald, and Kristy Wallace, while Damiris Dantas is questionable. Las Vegas does not have any players listed on its injury report. Make sure to read this in-depth Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces prediction. Feel the energy! Explore our WNBA picks for Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction and own the court.
Indiana is winning with its defense
The Indiana Fever are scoring an average of 77.3 points per game, which is 5th among playoff teams, while allowing an average of 75.0 points per game, which is third. Indiana is shooting 39.9% overall and 28.5% from three-point territory, but has been bailed out by the defense that is holding opponents to just 42.4% overall and 28.1% from three-point land.
Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in the postseason with an average of 23.3 points per game. Aliyah Boston is second, averaging 12.3 points per game. Only one other player scores in double figures for the Fever. Boston is the leader on the glass, averaging 9.7 boards per contest, and Odyssey Sims is the leader in assists at 5.0 per game.
Las Vegas is tough to stop on offense, while its defense is adequate
The Las Vegas Aces are averaging 86.3 points per game during the postseason, which is second only to the Minnesota Lynx (88.0 ppg). The Aces are hitting 48.9% of their shots overall and 40.0% from 3-point territory. The Las Vegas defense is sixth out of eight playoff teams in points allowed at 78.7 points per game. The Aces hold opponents to 43.3% shooting overall and 42.9% from 3-point territory. It is obvious, the Aces focus first on scoring while defense is secondary.
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A’ja Wilson is the clear scoring leader and leader on the glass for the Aces. The center is averaging 29.3 points per game in the postseason and scored 38 in the deciding game 3 win. Jackie Young is second in scoring, averaging 19.0 points per game, while Jewell Loyd is the third and final player averaging double figures in scoring for the Aces at 10.3 points per game. Wilson cleans the glass the best at 8.7 boards per game, while Chelsea Gray is the leader in assists with an average of 7.7 assists per contest.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Pick
Spread Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
- Las Vegas Aces -9.5 (5 units)
Despite being besieged by injuries most of the season and with multiple players out currently, Indiana has found a way to reach the semifinals after beating the third-seeded Atlanta Dream. However, the Fever face a stiff challenge against Las Vegas, arguably the hottest team in the WNBA, in the second half of the season. Las Vegas is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 games, and the Aces are 4-2 ATS in the last six games played at home. Indiana has won and covered the spread in the last two meetings between the two, but that was back in July when Las Vegas was struggling and before the Aces ran off 17 straight wins. The Fever will attempt to slow down the pace and prevent the Aces from running up the score, but look for A’ja Wilson and Jackie Young to be too strong on the offensive end for the Fever to contain.
Over/Under Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
- Under 163.5 (4 units)
Las Vegas was held to 74 points by Seattle in its last outing and will face a tough defense in Indiana on Sunday. The total has finished under in five of Indiana’s last six games. The total has finished under in each of the last six games, head-to-head between the Fever and Aces.
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