Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Use Code WWWC It's win or go home on Tuesday when the Indiana Fever visit the Las Vegas Aces in the deciding Game 5 of their best-of-five semifinals series at 9:30 pm ET on ESPN2. Indiana evened the series at 2-2 with a 90-83 victory over Las Vegas on Sunday. Indiana opened the series with a win but lost two straight before staving off elimination in Game 4 to force the fifth and deciding game. Indiana will play without Damiris Dantas, Caitlin Clark, Chloe Bibby, Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald. Las Vegas does not have any players listed on its injury report. Make sure to read this in-depth Indiana Fever vs Vegas Aces prediction. Play to win! Dive into our WNBA picks for Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction and slam dunk your bets.
Indiana needs to improve its offense and defense during the postseason
The Indiana Fever have scored an average of 76.8 points per game during the postseason, shooting 41.0% overall and 30.4% from 3-point territory. Indiana averages 34.5 rebounds, 17.3 assists, 6.2 steals, 2.7 blocked shots, and 12.5 turnovers per game. Indiana's defense allows an average of 79.3 points per game, with opponents shooting 45.8% overall and 32.5% from 3-point territory. The Fever have reached the final game of the semifinals despite giving up nearly three more points per game than they are scoring.
Kelsy Mitchell led the Fever in scoring on Sunday with 25 points and leads the Fever in the postseason with an average of 23.5 points per game. Aliyah Boston is second in scoring at 12.7 points per game. The Fever have two others who average double figures in scoring. Boston leads the Fever in rebounding at 10.7 boards per game and in assists with an average of 4.4 dishes per contest. Odyssey Sims is the leader in steals at 1.4 per contest, and Brianna Turner protects the rim the best, averaging 0.6 blocks per game.
Las Vegas is playing well on offense but its defense must get tighter
The Las Vegas Aces are scoring an average of 84.3 points per game during the postseason, shooting 48.6% overall and 38.4% from 3-point territory. Las Vegas averages 30.7 rebounds, 19.8 assists, 8.5 steals, 5.0 blocked shots, and 12.2 turnovers per game. Las Vegas is allowing an average of 79.3 points per game, while opponents are shooting 43.0% overall and 36.2% from 3-point territory.
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As she did during the regular season, A’ja Wilson leads Las Vegas in scoring (23.7 ppg), rebounding (9.3 rpg), steals (2.2 spg), and blocked shots (2.5 bpg). Jackie Young is second in scoring, averaging 18.9 points per game, and Chelsea Gray is the third and final player averaging double figures in scoring at 10.0 points per game. Gray is the leader in dishes, averaging 7.2 assists per game.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Pick
Spread Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
- Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (4 units)
Las Vegas has played very well the final month of the season and into the postseason; therefore, look for the Aces to regroup and bounce back with a strong effort at home on Tuesday to eliminate Indiana and move on to the WNBA finals versus the Phoenix Mercury. Las Vegas and Indiana are allowing the same number of points during the postseason at 79.3 points per game, but Las Vegas is performing much better at the other end of the court and will use its offense to open a lead in Game 5 and hold off the Fever down the stretch. A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and NaLyssa Smith will be too much for the Indiana defense to contain on Tuesday and will prevent the Fever from seeing too many second looks with strong work on the glass. This matchup has been very tight from the beginning, and once again will feature back-and-forth action with both teams enjoying scoring runs, but in the end, Las Vegas, playing on its home court, will win.
Over/Under Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
- Under (4 units)
The total has finished under in seven of Indiana's last nine games, in seven of Indiana's last eight games played on the road, and in four of Las Vegas’ last five games overall. The total has finished under three of the first four games of this series and in four of the last five games overall between these two rivals.
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