Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Tuesday, September 2, 2025
Indiana Fever (21-19) vs. Phoenix Mercury (25-14)
The Indiana Fever head to PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona, on Tuesday night to square off against the Phoenix Mercury in a cross-conference showdown with the tip-off at 10:00 PM ET, and we’ve got you covered with our Fever vs. Mercury prediction.
Phoenix hosts Indiana to decide the winner of their three-game regular-season series. The Fever beat the Mercury 107-101 as 3.5-point home underdogs on July 30, and Phoenix responded with a 95-60 home victory eight days later, covering a 4.5-point spread with ease.
Read more about this Indiana vs. Phoenix prediction, and check out all our WNBA picks for Tuesday’s card. The Mercury are 6.5-point home favorites with a total of 165.5 points.
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Indiana is fighting for a playoff spot
The Indiana Fever are coming off Sunday’s 75-63 road loss against the Golden State Valkyries. After consecutive wins over the Seattle Storm 95-75 at home and the Los Angeles Sparks 76-75 on the road, the Fever failed to cope with the Valkyries’ sturdy defense.
Indiana made just 33.3% of its field goals last Sunday. The Fever went 6-for-30 from beyond the 3-point line and handed out 15 assists. Aerial Powers led the way for the Fever with 17 points and four rebounds, while Kelsey Mitchell had 14 points and three assists.
The Fever have serious injury problems. Aari McDonald (9.8 PPG) and Sophie Cunningham (8.6 PPG) are both done for the season, while Caitlin Clark (16.5 PPG, 8.8 APG) hasn’t played since July 15. Clark should return in the near future, but she’ll almost certainly remain on the shelf when the Fever take on the Mercury.
Kelsey Mitchell is the team’s leading scorer with 20.3 points per game. Indiana tallies 84.5 points per game (4th in the WNBA) while surrendering 82.2 points in return (9th). The Fever hold the No. 8 seed, two games above the Los Angeles Sparks and half a game behind the Seattle Storm.
Phoenix shoots for its fifth straight W
The Phoenix Mercury have won six of their previous seven games overall and are undefeated in four straight outings. During that four-game stretch, the Mercury have beaten the Golden State Valkyries 81-72, the Los Angeles Sparks 92-84, the Chicago Sky 83-79, and the New York Liberty 80-63.
Last Saturday, the Mercury cruised past the Liberty, playing as slight 1-point home favorites. Phoenix held the reigning WNBA champions to 24 points in the second half and forced them into 19 turnovers. The Mercury shot 47.6% from the field (12-for-27 from deep), and Kahleah Copper led the charge with 22 points.
Copper tallies 16.3 points per game. Satou Sabally is the team’s leading scorer with 16.3 points per game, while Alyssa Thomas posts 15.8 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.9 rebounds a night. Thomas, who spent 11 years with the Connecticut Sun, is having a wonderful first season with the Mercury.
Phoenix is tied with the Atlanta Dream for the No. 3 seed. They are only half a game behind the No. 2 Las Vegas Aces. The Mercury score 83.1 points per game (6th in the WNBA) while yielding 79.6 points in return (4th).
Indiana Fever vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick
I expect the Mercury to extend their strong run of form and beat the injury-depleted Fever by more than six points. The Fever will struggle to contain the Mercury for 40 minutes. Indiana can score, but the Fever’s defense has been shaky all season.
The Fever rank 10th in opposing 2-point percentage (50.4%) and ninth in opposing 3-point percentage (33.7%). The Mercury are a top-five team in those two categories.
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its previous six dates with Phoenix. However, the Fever have beaten the number just once in their last six showings on the road. The Mercury are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-3 ATS in their previous seven outings at home.
Pick: Phoenix Mercury -6.5 (5 units)
The Total:
As I’ve mentioned a few times this season, the Mercury are a well-balanced team. Phoenix executes its offense at a high level while playing solid defense. The Mercury just scored 80 points against the reigning champs and held them to 63 points.
The under has hit in each of the Mercury’s last five games overall, but I have to take the over in this matchup. The Fever often struggle to defend. Indiana prefers to play fast and lean on its offense, so I’m looking for a high-scoring affair. The over is 5-2 in the Fever’s last seven games overall.
Pick: Over 165.5 Points (5 units)
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