Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction for Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Las Vegas Aces are one game away from the WNBA finals, leading their semifinal best-of-five series with the Indiana Fever 2-1, and will play Game 4 on the road Sunday. Las Vegas defeated Indiana 84-72 in Game 3 on Friday. The Aces opened the series at home with a loss but have won each of the last two games to put Indiana on the brink of elimination. Las Vegas does not have any players listed on its injury report. Indiana will play without Damiris Dantas, Caitlin Clark, Chloe Bibby, Sophie Cunningham, Sydney Colson, and Aari McDonald. Make sure to read this in-depth Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever prediction. Play to win! Dive into our WNBA picks for the Las Vegas Aces vs. the Indiana Fever prediction and slam dunk your bets.
Las Vegas is known for its offense, but the defense has been tough to beat
The Las Vegas Aces are scoring an average of 84.3 points per game, which is first during the postseason, shooting 48.6% overall and 38.4% from 3-point territory. The Aces are holding opponents to an average of 77.5 points per game, which is third best in the postseason, allowing 42.7% shooting overall and 37.4% shooting from 3-point territory. As a team, Las Vegas is averaging 33.8 rebounds, 17.2 assists, 6.2 steals, 3.2 blocked shots, and 13.3 turnovers per game.
A’ja Wilson leads Las Vegas in scoring (23.7 ppg), rebounding (9.3 rpg), steals (2.2 spg), and blocked shots (2.5 bpg). Jackie Young is second in scoring at 19.0 points per game, while both Chelsea Gray and NaLyssa Smith are averaging 9.7 points per game. Gray is the leader in assists at 7.2 per game.
Indiana needs to shoot better, while the defense must tighten up
The Indiana Fever are scoring an average of 76.8 points per game during the postseason, which is 5th out of eight teams. The Fever are shooting 41.0% overall and 30.4% from 3-point territory. Indiana is holding opponents to an average of 78.7 points per game, which is sixth in the postseason, while allowing opponents to shoot 45.3% overall and 31.1% from 3-point territory. As a team, Indiana averages 34.5 rebounds, 17.3 assists, 6.2 steals, 2.7 blocked shots, and 12.5 turnovers per game.
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Kelsey Mitchell leads Indiana in scoring during the postseason, averaging 23.0 points per game, while Odyssey Sims is second, averaging 11.3 points per game. Indiana has two other players who average double figures in scoring. Aliyah Boston leads the Fever in rebounding at 10.2 boards per game and is third in scoring at 10.8 points per game. Sims dishes out an average of 4.5 assists per game to lead the Fever and is the leader in steals at 1.5 per game. Brianna Turner is the rim protector, averaging 0.7 blocked shots per game
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Pick
Spread Pick for Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (5 units)
Las Vegas has found its rhythm once again and will close out this series on the road Sunday. Indiana has performed very well despite having several players out injured, but has had a hard time breaking down the Las Vegas defense and has not been able to limit the Aces’ transition game, which has helped Las Vegas to pull off scoring runs to separate from the Fever. A’ja Wilson is showing why she was named the WNBA MVP for a fourth time with her play at both ends, especially clogging up the middle with her presence in the paint and on the glass. Kelly Mitchell and Aliyah Boston have played well inside and out for the Fever, but the overall depth on the bench for the Aces is much better than that of Indiana. Legs get tired late, and Las Vegas has taken advantage.
Over/Under Pick for Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Under 159 (4 units)
The total has finished under in each of the first three games of this series and in each of the last four games for Las Vegas, all of which have been in the postseason. The total has finished under in eight of Indiana's last nine games dating back to the end of the regular season. Las Vegas is 3rd in the postseason and points allowed, and Indiana is sixth. The pace has slowed a bit, with Las Vegas tightening its defense as the series moves forward.
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