Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Picks and Prediction for Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC On Friday, the Las Vegas Aces visit the Indiana Fever for Game 3 of their semi-finals best-of-five series. The series is even at 1-1 after Indiana opened with an 89-73 victory in Game 1, but Las Vegas bounced back with a 90-68 victory on Tuesday in Game 2. Games 3 and 4 will be played in Indiana, before returning for Game 5 in Las Vegas, if necessary. Las Vegas does not have any players listed on its injury report. Indiana will play without Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson, Sophie Cunningham, Chloe Bibby, Caitlin Clark, and Damiris Dantas. Make sure to read this in-depth Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever prediction. Boost your odds with our WNBA picks for the Indiana Fever vs. the Las Vegas Aces prediction and stay ahead of the spread.
Las Vegas is tough to stop with the ball, but it needs to tighten its defense
The Las Vegas Aces are scoring an average of 84.4 points per game during the postseason, which is second out of eight teams, shooting 48.1% overall and 38.2% from 3-point territory. The Aces are averaging 31.6 rebounds, 19.8 assists, 8.6 steals, 4.0 blocked shots, and 11.8 turnovers per game. The Las Vegas defense is allowing an average of 78.6 points per game, which is 6th, holding opponents to 44.2% shooting overall and 39.1% from 3-point territory.
A’ja Wilson, who was recently named the WNBA MVP for a record fourth time, leads Las Vegas in scoring (25.8 ppg), rebounding (9.6 rpg), steals (2.4 spg), and blocked shots (2.4 bpg). Jackie Young is the second-leading scorer, averaging 17.8 points per game and one of just two players for Las Vegas averaging double figures in scoring. However, the Aces have four players who average between 8.2 and 8.8 points per game. Chelsea Gray is the leader in assists, averaging 7.4 dishes per contest.
Indiana has a very small margin of error between scoring and points allowed
The Indiana Fever are scoring an average of 77.8 points per game during the postseason, which is fifth. Indiana is shooting 42.2% overall and 30.4% from 3-point territory. The Fever are averaging 33.6 rebounds, 18.0 assists, 6.2 steals, 2.2 blocks, and 12.2 turnovers per game. Indiana is holding opponents to an average of 77.6 points per game on 44.2% shooting overall and 30.1% shooting from 3-point territory.
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Kelsey Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring in the postseason, averaging 23.4 points per game. Odyssey Sims is second in scoring, averaging 13.2 points per game, the leader in assists, averaging 5.0 per game, and the leader in steals at 1.8 per game. Aliyah Boston is the third leading scorer at 10.6 points per game and the leading rebounder at 10.6 boards per contest. Brianna Turner is the rim protector with a team-high 0.8 blocked shots per game
Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Pick
Spread Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
- Las Vegas Aces -4.5 (4 units)
The Las Vegas Aces bounced back from a Game 1 loss to Indiana with a statement win in Game 2, beating the Fever by 22 and displaying why they won 17 straight games to end the regular season. Las Vegas is 6-4 in its last 10 games dating back to the regular season. The Aces are 5-4-1 ATS in the last 10 games head-to-head versus Indiana. The Aces have the WNBA MVP in A’ja Wilson, one of the toughest offenses to slow down, let alone contain or stop. In transition, the Aces are one of the best and on Tuesday showed their grit on defense, holding the Fever to 64 points or approximately 13 points below their postseason average. The Fever managed to shoot just 41% overall, while Las Vegas shot 54%. This should be a tight battle start to finish, with Indiana helped by its home crowd, but Wilson will find a way to carry her team on her shoulder to a win and cover.
Over/Under Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever
- Under (5 units)
Despite Las Vegas scoring 90 points on Tuesday, the total finished under the closing line of 165.0. The first game of the series, with 162 points scored, also finished under the 165.5-point line. The total has finished under in eight straight games between the two. As pressure mounts, shooting tends to falter a bit and defenses pick up; therefore, expect longer possessions, more missed shots, and fewer points.
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