Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction for Wednesday, October 8, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Las Vegas Aces look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven WNBA Finals with a victory on the road Wednesday when visiting the Phoenix Mercury. The Aces lead the series 2-0 after defeating the Mercury 91-78 in Game 2 on Sunday. The Aces opened the series with an 89-86 victory over Phoenix. Las Vegas does not have any players listed on its injury report, while Phoenix’s Satou Sabally is listed as day-to-day. Make sure to read this in-depth Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury prediction. Ready to rebound? Check out our top WNBA picks for the Las Vegas Aces vs the Phoenix Mercury prediction today.
Las Vegas is tough with the ball and playing better defense
The Las Vegas Aces have scored an average of 87.6 points per game during 10 postseason games, which leads the eight teams that reached the playoffs. The Aces are shooting 48.3% overall and 37.9% three-point territory. Las Vegas averages 30.3 rebounds, 21.2 assists, 8.7 steals, 5.4 blocks, and 11.3 turnovers per game. The defense is fifth in the postseason, allowing opponents to score 81.7 points per game on 43.7% shooting overall and 34.6% from 3-point territory. Las Vegas is being out-rebounded as opponents are averaging 34.6 boards per game, but Las Vegas is forcing 13.6 turnovers per game.
As she did during the regular season, A’ja Wilson leads Las Vegas in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks, averaging 25.7 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.3 steals, and 2.4 blocked shots per game. Jackie Young is second in scoring, averaging 20.6 points per game. Chelsea Gray leads the Aces in assists, averaging 7.8 per game. Three players for the Aces average double figures in scoring.
Phoenix must improve its shooting and make more stops on defense
The Phoenix Mercury are scoring an average of 80.7 points per game during the postseason, shooting only 47.1% overall and 31.0% from 3. Territory. The Mercury average 37.2 rebounds, 20.3 assists, 7.8 steals, 2.3 blocks, and 11.6 turnovers per game. The Phoenix defense is third in the postseason in points allowed at 79.0 points per game, while opponents are shooting 41.8% overall and 28.9% from 3-point territory. The Mercury are out-rebounding opponents, allowing 33.5 rebounds per game while forcing 13.2 turnovers per contest.
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Satou Sabally leads Phoenix in scoring during the postseason at 18.4 points per game, but is listed as day-to-day, and would be a huge loss if not able to play. Alyssa Thomas is averaging nearly a triple-double at 17.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game. Kahleah Copper is the third and final player for Phoenix, averaging double figures in scoring at 16.6 points per day.
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Las Vegas Aces (4 units)
Las Vegas has a trio of stars that have controlled the WNBA Finals through the first two games of the series. A’ja Wilson, the WNBA MVP, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray have been too tough at both ends of the court for Phoenix to contain. Wilson is scoring almost at will, cleaning the glass on defense, preventing the Mercury from second looks, and clogging up the paint to take away inside shooting by Phoenix. If Phoenix’s Sabally plays, she has to hit from outside to pull Wilson outside and stretch the Las Vegas defense; otherwise, the Aces will clog the paint and force the Mercury into shooting long distance. With NaLyssa Smith, Dana Evans, and Jewell Loyd, the Aces have three highly talented role players who give Las Vegas a much deeper roster and allow the others to play without worrying about getting into foul trouble.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Under (4 units)
Phoenix plays better defense at home, and the total has finished under in seven of the Mercury’s last 9 on their home court. Phoenix must stop the offensive juggernaut of Las Vegas and prevent the Aces from their transition game, making it a half-court game where more time is taken off the clock and fewer possessions for both.
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