Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 24 2026
Today's Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury picks for Thursday, September 24, 2026, come from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix. Las Vegas enters at 30-13 on a six-game winning streak, while Phoenix is 16-27 and closes the regular season at home.
Las Vegas is favored by 9.5 points at the best current price, with the total set around 175.5. Bettors reviewing Thursday's WNBA picks can get a full point better than the -10.5 shown on the early afternoon reference board. The available WNBA player props should also reflect the Aces' outstanding recent form and Phoenix's backcourt limitations before the 10:00 PM EDT tipoff.
Best Available Odds for Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury
- Spread: Las Vegas Aces -9.5 | Phoenix Mercury +10.5
- Total: 175.5
Game Info
- Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM EDT / 7:00 PM MST
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
- TV: USA Network, CNBC, The Spot-Vegas 34
- Key Availability: Las Vegas remains without NaLyssa Smith and Janiah Barker for the season. Phoenix remains without Kelsey Plum.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Preview
Las Vegas enters the final night of the regular season playing its best basketball.
The Aces have won six straight and eight of their last 10, moving to 30-13 while keeping pressure on Golden State for the No. 2 seed.
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The recent run has been dominant rather than fortunate.
Las Vegas has averaged more than 97 points during the six-game streak while holding opponents to roughly 77.
That combination of elite offense and improved defense is exactly what bettors want before laying a large road spread.
A'ja Wilson remains the foundation.
She can score efficiently in the paint, draw fouls, rebound and erase mistakes defensively. Phoenix does not have a simple matchup answer when Las Vegas creates deep position for Wilson.
Chelsea Gray gives the Aces control in the half court, while Jackie Young can attack either as a scorer or secondary facilitator.
The bench has also become more productive during the winning streak, reducing the pressure on the starters to create every point.
That matters when the spread reaches the high single digits because Las Vegas can maintain quality even when the primary lineup rests.
Phoenix is 16-27 but has been more competitive since the World Cup break.
The Mercury still have high-level talent through Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper.
Thomas can control a game without scoring 25 points because of her rebounding and passing. Copper gives Phoenix a downhill scorer capable of forcing Las Vegas to rotate.
The absence of Plum removes another high-volume perimeter option.
That becomes especially important against an Aces defense that can load toward Thomas and force other guards to make plays.
The season series favors Las Vegas 2-1.
Phoenix won the opening meeting 99-66, one of the Aces' worst performances of the season.
Las Vegas answered emphatically, including a 106-58 blowout in July.
The current version of the Aces looks much closer to the team that controlled the later meetings than the one that struggled on opening weekend.
The market has moved in that direction.
Las Vegas opened around -8.5 to -9.5 and reached -10.5 on the early afternoon reference board.
Current markets still offer -9.5 in places, which is the number to target.
That one-point difference is important in a double-digit spread environment.
The total has remained around 175.5 after moving between the mid-174s and mid-176s.
The full-season totals data does not produce the same clear direction.
Las Vegas is 20-22 O/U, while Phoenix is 21-21.
That makes the side more attractive than forcing an Over or Under based on recent scoring alone.
Matchup Breakdown
The WNBA betting trends show a mixed ATS history for Las Vegas, but the current matchup is stronger than the season-long average.
The Aces are 21-20 ATS in the season data. Phoenix is only 18-24, one of the weaker spread profiles in the league.
Las Vegas has also been much better during its current winning streak than its full-season record suggests.
The Aces are defending at a high level without sacrificing offensive pace.
That is a difficult combination for Phoenix because the Mercury need Thomas to create against a set defense while also preventing Wilson and Young from getting downhill on the other end.
Phoenix can stay competitive if Copper catches fire from the perimeter and Thomas controls the glass.
The Mercury also have the home-court setting for the regular-season finale, which can create extra energy.
Las Vegas has the stronger motivation.
The Aces can still improve their playoff seed depending on Golden State's result, and maintaining momentum into the postseason matters for a team playing its best basketball.
The biggest concern is the price.
At -10.5, bettors are paying for the winning streak and the public perception of Las Vegas.
At -9.5, the wager becomes much more attractive because a 10-point victory is enough.
The Aces have won nine of the last 11 meetings with Phoenix when playoff games are included and have dominated the matchup throughout the Becky Hammon era.
That historical control is secondary to the current form, but it reinforces the talent gap.
Las Vegas can create margin in several ways. Wilson can dominate inside, Gray can control tempo, Young can pressure the rim and the bench can extend leads against Phoenix's second unit.
The Mercury need far more things to go right.
Game Thesis: The full-season ATS signal is not as strong as Golden State's or Washington's, but Las Vegas enters on a six-game winning streak with elite recent efficiency at both ends. Phoenix has struggled against the spread and remains without Plum. At the improved -9.5 rather than the -10.5 seen earlier, the Aces are the preferred wager.
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Best Bet - Spread: Las Vegas Aces -9.5
Las Vegas is playing too well to ignore at the better number.
The Aces have averaged more than 97 points during their six-game winning streak while allowing roughly 77, producing the kind of two-way margin that supports laying points.
Phoenix still has enough talent to make stretches competitive, but the Mercury are only 18-24 ATS and do not have the same perimeter depth without Plum.
The line moved as high as -10.5, making the available -9.5 the key entry.
A 10-point Las Vegas win is enough to cash at that number.
Las Vegas -9.5 is the strongest position.
Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 96, Phoenix Mercury 83
