Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday June 17 2026
Use Code WWWC Las Vegas visits Phoenix for a Finals rematch featuring updated picks, injury news, and top WNBA player props.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Las Vegas Aces (-277) / Phoenix Mercury (+260)
Best Spread Odds: Las Vegas Aces -6.5 (-113) / Phoenix Mercury +8.0 (-111)
Best Total Odds: Over 174.0 (+100) / Under 171.5 (-105)
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Game Info
Date: June 17, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM EDT
Location: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ
TV: USA Network, Arizona's Family Sports, The Spot-Vegas 34
Las Vegas Aces vs Phoenix Mercury Preview
The defending champion Las Vegas Aces enter Wednesday at 10-4 after suffering their most lopsided defeat of the season. Las Vegas fell 96-66 at Dallas on Monday, trailing by 22 points at halftime and never mounting a serious second-half response.
Jewell Loyd led the Aces with 21 points and five three-pointers off the bench, while A'ja Wilson scored 18. Jackie Young finished with six points on 3-of-13 shooting, and Chelsea Gray went scoreless in 29 minutes after producing two of her strongest offensive games of the season.
Las Vegas still owns one of the WNBA's most productive offenses, averaging 90.2 points while shooting 48.2% from the field. The Aces also average 23.4 assists and have several established creators through Wilson, Gray, Young, and Loyd.
The Aces are dealing with reduced backcourt depth. Loyd is questionable because of an illness, while Chennedy Carter is out with an illness. Dana Evans is unavailable because of a leg injury, and Janiah Barker is out with a leg issue.
Phoenix enters at 4-11 after losing three consecutive games and 11 of its last 14. The Mercury's latest defeat was a 111-102 overtime loss to Los Angeles in which Phoenix surrendered 43 points to Kelsey Plum and allowed the Sparks to shoot 48.1% from the field.
Kahleah Copper delivered her best game of the season in the loss, scoring a career-high 41 points and collecting 10 rebounds. She made 16 of 30 shots and six three-pointers while carrying a Phoenix offense that has struggled to produce consistently throughout the season.
Alyssa Thomas finished with 10 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds against Los Angeles. She remains the central playmaker in Phoenix's offense, averaging approximately eight assists per game while creating scoring chances for Copper, DeWanna Bonner, Natasha Mack, Lexi Held, and the Mercury's supporting shooters.
Phoenix averages 82.2 points while allowing 86.8. The Mercury have been less efficient than Las Vegas from the field and three-point range, and Sami Whitcomb's absence removes another experienced shooter from the rotation.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
Las Vegas swept Phoenix in four games during the 2025 WNBA Finals, completing the championship run with a 97-86 victory at Mortgage Matchup Center. Wilson scored 31 points in the clinching game and earned Finals MVP honors.
Phoenix answered emphatically in the first 2026 meeting. The Mercury defeated Las Vegas 99-66 on May 9, spoiling the Aces' championship ring ceremony. Thomas led Phoenix with 20 points as the Mercury controlled the game at both ends of the floor.
The opening-night result demonstrated that Phoenix can disrupt Las Vegas when its defense forces turnovers and prevents Wilson from controlling the paint. The Mercury have not maintained that level, however, losing 11 of 14 games since that victory.
Las Vegas enters with an added Commissioner's Cup incentive. The Aces are 5-1 in Cup play and can secure a place in the championship game with a victory. Phoenix has been eliminated from Cup contention but can still damage Las Vegas' positioning and complete a regular-season upset sweep.
Game Thesis: Las Vegas is the preferred side because it has the deeper roster, more efficient offense, and stronger full-season form. Phoenix's opening-night rout prevents this from being treated as an automatic victory, especially if Loyd remains unavailable. However, the Aces should respond with greater defensive urgency after allowing Dallas to score 96 points, while Phoenix's offensive inconsistency makes it difficult to trust the Mercury over four quarters.
Moneyline Pick: Las Vegas Aces (-277)
The Aces are the clear moneyline selection, but the heavy price offers limited standalone value. Las Vegas has won 10 of its first 14 games, while Phoenix has dropped 11 of 15 and owns one of the league's weakest records.
Wilson gives Las Vegas the most dominant individual matchup on the floor. Phoenix must account for her scoring, rebounding, rim protection, and ability to draw defensive attention, which creates opportunities for Gray, Young, and the Aces' perimeter shooters.
The Aces also have a strong motivational angle after their poor performance in Dallas. The loss exposed defensive problems and inconsistent transition effort, areas Las Vegas is capable of correcting against a Phoenix team averaging only 82.2 points.
Phoenix has enough star talent to remain competitive, but the Aces are the more likely winner. Bettors looking for a better return should consider the spread rather than paying the full moneyline price.
⭐ Best Bet - Spread Pick: Las Vegas Aces -6.5 (-113)
Las Vegas -6.5 is the strongest play. The Aces have the offensive ceiling to create separation, and Phoenix has lost eight games by at least seven points this season.
The first meeting was a 33-point Phoenix victory, but the Mercury have not reproduced that performance. Phoenix's defense has allowed at least 90 points in five of its last seven games, including 111 against Los Angeles and 111 against Minnesota.
Las Vegas averages 90.2 points and shoots above 48% from the field. Wilson should be able to pressure Phoenix inside, while Gray and Young can attack a Mercury defense that has struggled to contain guards and defend the three-point line.
Loyd's status affects Las Vegas' perimeter depth, but the Aces still possess enough creation to cover a number below seven. A focused defensive response should also prevent Phoenix from matching the scoring pace needed to remain within one or two possessions.
Total Pick: Under 171.5 (-105)
The Under 171.5 is the preferred total. Las Vegas should respond to its defensive breakdown in Dallas with a more disciplined effort, while Phoenix has averaged only 82.2 points and ranks in the bottom half of the league offensively.
The Mercury's 102-point performance against Los Angeles required overtime and a career-high 41 points from Copper. Phoenix scored 90 points through regulation, while Thomas and Copper combined for more than half of the team's total production.
Las Vegas is capable of scoring in the 90s, but an Aces victory does not require a track meet. If the Aces control the glass, reduce transition chances, and force Phoenix into contested half-court possessions, the Mercury could struggle to reach 80.
A final score around 91-78 or 92-76 would give Las Vegas a comfortable victory while remaining below the available total.
Top Player Prop Picks
Chelsea Gray Over 11.5 Points (-105) Gray enters after going scoreless on five field-goal attempts against Dallas, but that performance followed consecutive games of 29 and 23 points. She made 15 three-pointers across those two contests and scored at least 12 points in five straight games before Monday.
Phoenix has struggled to defend the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot efficiently from three throughout the season. Gray should receive opportunities to attack off Wilson's screens and punish the Mercury when they send additional defenders toward the paint.
Las Vegas may also need more scoring from Gray if Loyd cannot play. Her season average sits above the listed number, and her recent shooting volume gives her a reasonable path to a bounce-back performance.
Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 Assists (-137) Thomas averages approximately eight assists per game and enters after recording 12 against Los Angeles and 10 against Dallas. Her combination of size, passing, and ball-handling makes her Phoenix's primary offensive organizer.
Las Vegas may send extra defensive attention toward Copper following her 41-point performance. That coverage can create passing lanes for Thomas to find Bonner, Mack, Held, and Phoenix's cutters around the basket.
Thomas does not need to score heavily to control the game. Her ability to generate open attempts for teammates gives her a strong path to eight or more assists in a matchup where Phoenix will rely heavily on its two stars.
Kahleah Copper Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds (-124) Copper averages 18.8 points and 3.4 rebounds, placing her season average slightly above this combined line. She has also averaged more than 23 combined points and rebounds over her last 10 games.
Phoenix continues to give Copper a high-volume scoring role. She attempted 30 shots against Los Angeles and finished with 41 points and 10 rebounds, demonstrating the ceiling available when the Mercury need her to carry the offense.
Las Vegas is likely to defend Copper more aggressively than Los Angeles did, but her shot volume and ability to reach the free-throw line provide several paths to the Over. A performance of 19 points and three rebounds would be enough to clear the number.
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