Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury, Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 26, 2025
Use Code WWWC The WNBA playoffs roll on with a Game 3 matchup on Friday, Sept. 26. Read our Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury prediction along with the other best WNBA Predictions! The series is tied 1-1 after the Mercury came from behind to force overtime and secure a big road win. Phoenix has already played in two overtime games in their five playoff matchups this month. The Lynx, who are the No. 1 seed, will try to steal back home court advantage. These two teams will meet with tip-off set for 9:30 P.M. EST.
Minnesota looks to rebound from Game 2 collapse
No. 1 Minnesota has the series tied 1-1 in the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs. The Lynx dominated Game 1, but they faltered in Game 2, struggling to defend their home court. They lost 89-83 in Overtime on Tuesday, Sept. 23.
Minnesota led by as much as 20 points in the game before they allowed Phoenix to come from behind and hit a game-tying triple to send it to an extra period. The Lynx couldn’t find any momentum in OT allowing Phoenix to walk away with the win. The Lynx shot 45.3% from the field and 25% from behind the arc. The team had 18 turnovers which killed their momentum.
Four of Minnesota’s starters reached double figures, but bench production became a problem. They scored just three points from the bench. Napheesa Collier led the team with 24 points on 10-for-22 shooting.
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Collier led the Lynx with 22 points per game in the regular season. Jessica Shepard grabbed a team-high seven rebounds while Courtney Williams passed for a team-leading 5.5 assists per game.
In the regular season, the Lynx averaged 82.3 points per game which ranked second best. They were the top shooting team in the league, making 47.2% from the field and 37.8% from behind the 3-point line.
On defense, Minnesota allowed 73.3 points per game, ranking them third best in the regular season. They are allowing 42.3% from the field which ranked second best. The Lynx were the eighth-ranked 3-point defensive team, giving up 33.1% from behind the arc.
In Game 2, Minnesota did not cover as a 7.5-point favorite. The over hit with it set at 160. The Lynx covered the spread as a 9.5-point favorite in Game 1 against Phoenix. The under also hit with the total set at 159.5. The Lynx are 2-3 against the spread in the playoffs.
In the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota covered as a 13.5-point favorite in Game 1. They failed to cover in Game 2 as a 10.5-point favorite. The total is 1-1 through their first few games in the first round, too.
The Lynx finished the regular season with a 26-19-1 against the spread. Minnesota held a 14-7-1 against the spread at home during the regular season. The total was 22-22-2 when Minnesota has played.
DiJonai Carrington is out for the rest of the postseason with a foot sprain.
Phoenix steals Game 2 in OT
No. 5 Phoenix is set for Game 3 in the WNBA Semifinals. The series is tied at 1-1 after the Mercury put together a huge game on Tuesday, Sept. 23. Phoenix defeated Minnesota 89-83 in overtime. Sami Whitcomb hit a 3-pointer to send the game to OT after the Lynx led for the majority of the game. Phoenix went on a 6-0 run to start OT, which led to the win.
Phoenix shot 41.8% from the field and 40.6% from behind the 3-point line. The Mercury forced 18 turnovers, which led to 21 points for Phoenix. Phoenix never led by more than six points in the win. Satou Sabally led the team with 24 points on 9-for-22 shooting and nine rebounds. Alyssa Thomas added 19 points and 13 assists for the double-double.
In the regular season, Sabally led the team with 16.3 points per game. Thomas was great in the regular season, grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
Phoenix was averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best in the regular season. They were the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury were also the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
On defense, the Mercury were allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth in the regular season. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked regular-season defense, giving up 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
In Game 2, Phoenix covered as a 7.5-point underdog in their OT win. The over hit with it is set at 160 thanks to the overtime period. The Mercury failed to cover the spread in Game 1 of the semifinals. They were 9.5-point underdogs and lost by 13. The under also hit with it set at 159.5.
Phoenix did not cover the spread in two of the three games in the first round of the playoffs, too. They covered as a 3.5-point favorite and as a 5-point underdog against the Liberty. The under hit in all three games in the opening round.
Phoenix was 21-22-1 against the spread in the regular season. They are 9-12-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Mercury are 2-2 against the spread versus the Lynx in the regular season. They were also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The under was 3-0 during the four matchups versus the Lynx. The under is 11-6-2 during Phoenix road games.
There are no injuries listed for the Mercury in this game.
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Picks
Spread Pick for Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
- Phoenix Mercury +4 (5 units)
Phoenix’s comeback late in Game 2 was full of momentum swings and big plays. They started to believe that they could compete and showed that they could win over the No. 1 seed. The defense, along with the 3-point shooting, was on the mark, and they frustrated a Minnesota team at home. The Lynx have not been able to dominate their opponents in the postseason like they did in the regular season. Teams, like Phoenix, are getting more comfortable and are understanding their concepts better. The home crowd in Phoenix should help the Mercury continue to believe another upset is possible thanks to big games from Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas.
Take Phoenix to cover .
Over/Under Pick for Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
- Under 159 (5 units)
Defense continues to be a key part in this semifinal series. 3-pointers are becoming more difficult to hit while interior play is being defended well. In the last game, the under was trending for a majority of the time before the game was sent to overtime. I think this game will stay the course like the past two outings and for the previous games that featured Phoenix. It will be a low scoring one that features long possession with difficult baskets made.
Take the under on Friday.
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