Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury, Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 28, 2025
Use Code WWWC The WNBA playoffs roll on with a Game 4 matchup on Friday, Sept. 26. Read our Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury prediction along with the other best WNBA Predictions! The Mercury lead the series 2-1 after the Mercury secured a win on Friday. Phoenix have already played in two overtime games in their five playoff matchups this month. The Lynx, who are the No. 1 seed, will try to get back into the series with a win. These two teams will meet with tip-off set for 7:00 P.M. EST.
Minnesota struggling to contend
Minnesota is down 2-1 to the Phoenix through the first three games of the season. In their last game, the Lynx lost 84-76 on the road on Friday, Sept. 26. They were dominated as they shot just 25% from behind the arc and Their largest lead was just six points. They were outscored 42-28 in the paint as Minnesota’s head coach was thrown out and has been suspended for Game 4 in this outing.
Four of Minnesota’s starters reached double figures, but bench production became a problem. They scored just three points from the bench. Napheesa Collier led the team with 24 points on 10-for-22 shooting.
Collier led the Lynx with 22 points per game in the regular season. Jessica Shepard grabbed a team-high seven rebounds while Courtney Williams passed for a team-leading 5.5 assists per game. Collier is out of this game with an injury.
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In the regular season, the Lynx averaged 82.3 points per game, which ranked second-best. They were the top shooting team in the league, making 47.2% from the field and 37.8% from behind the 3-point line.
On defense, Minnesota allowed 73.3 points per game, ranking them third best in the regular season. They are allowing 42.3% from the field, which ranked second best. The Lynx were the eighth-ranked 3-point defensive team, giving up 33.1% from behind the arc.
In Game 2, Minnesota did not cover as a 7.5-point favorite. The over hit with it set at 160. The Lynx covered the spread as a 9.5-point favorite in Game 1 against Phoenix. The under also hit with the total set at 159.5. The Lynx are 2-4 against the spread in the playoffs.
In the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota covered as a 13.5-point favorite in Game 1. They failed to cover in Game 2 as a 10.5-point favorite. The total is 1-1 through their first few games in the first round, too.
The Lynx finished the regular season with a 26-19-1 against the spread. Minnesota held a 14-7-1 record against the spread at home during the regular season. The total was 22-22-2 when Minnesota has played.
DiJonai Carrington is out for the rest of the postseason with a foot sprain.
Phoenix looking to clinch a Finals spot
Phoenix leads the WNBA Semifinals with a 2-1 lead this week. They have won back-to-back games as they are coming off an 84-76 win on Friday, Sept. 26. They shot 46.2% from the field and 33.3$ from behind the arc. The Mercury are out-rebounded in the win and they outscored the Mercury 42-28 in the paint.
DiJonai Carrington is out for the rest of the postseason with a foot sprain.In the regular season, Sabally led the team with 16.3 points per game. Thomas was great in the regular season, grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
Phoenix was averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best in the regular season. They were the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury were also the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
On defense, the Mercury were allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth in the regular season. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked regular-season defense, giving up 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
In Game 2, Phoenix covered as a 7.5-point underdog in their OT win. The over hit with it is set at 160 thanks to the overtime period. The Mercury failed to cover the spread in Game 1 of the semifinals. They were 9.5-point underdogs and lost by 13. The under also hit with it set at 159.5.
Phoenix did not cover the spread in two of the three games in the first round of the playoffs, too. They covered as a 3.5-point favorite and as a 5-point underdog against the Liberty. The under hit in all three games in the opening round.
Phoenix was 21-22-1 against the spread in the regular season. They are 9-12-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Mercury are 2-2 against the spread versus the Lynx in the regular season. They were also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The under was 3-0 during the four matchups versus the Lynx. The under is 11-6-2 during Phoenix road games.
There are no injuries listed for the Mercury in this game.
Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury Picks
Spread Pick for Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
- Phoenix Mercury -4.5 (5 units)
Things are going Phoenix’s way in this series. They are forcing turnovers, and they are scoring at will in the lane. The Mercury are finding a way to get the job done and they're doing it by beating the No. 1 seed. The Lynx will be without their head coach in this game which could cause some problems as they have struggled over the past week. Moments is a big deal in the WNBA and the Mercury have it all at the moment.
Take Phoenix to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury
- Under 159 (5 units)
Defense is a key part in Phoenix’s success over the past week. They are dominating the interior of the lane and are forcing tough shots. Expect a slow possession game while defense rises to the occasion. The Mercury continues to have low scoring games so far this season.
Take the under on Sunday.
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