New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday July 11 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx renew one of the WNBA's most competitive rivalries Saturday afternoon at Target Center. New York won the first meeting 99-86 eight days ago, but Minnesota returns home as a growing favorite after the market moved two points toward the Lynx.
Minnesota has also been one of the league's most reliable teams in the latest WNBA betting trends, while New York has struggled to produce the same consistency against the spread.
Best Available Odds for New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx
- Moneyline: New York Liberty +170 | Minnesota Lynx -188
- Spread: New York Liberty +5.5 (-114) | Minnesota Lynx -5.5 (-105)
- Total: Over 174.5 (-110) | Under 174.5 (-110)
Odds and Line Movement
Minnesota opened as a 3.5-point home favorite before the spread moved to -5.5. That is a significant adjustment for a matchup between two championship contenders, particularly after New York defeated Minnesota by 13 points in the first meeting.
The move reflects Minnesota's stronger full-season performance and New York's growing personnel concerns. The Liberty will be without Leonie Fiebich and Satou Sabally, while Rebecca Allen and Pauline Astier entered the day questionable. Fiebich's absence is especially important against a Minnesota offense with several capable perimeter scorers.
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The total opened at 172.5 before rising to 174.5. The first meeting produced 185 points, and both teams have played more overs than unders this season. Minnesota has combined an elite defense with an offense averaging 90 points per game, while New York continues to score efficiently around Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu.
Minnesota's moneyline climbed from the range associated with a short home favorite to approximately -188. New York remains available at plus money, but the spread movement shows that the market has become more confident in the Lynx as game day approaches.
Game Info
- Date: Saturday, July 11, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM EDT
- Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
- TV: ABC
New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx Preview
New York enters at 13-9 after an 88-77 home loss to the Dallas Wings. The Liberty led early but were outscored 29-11 in the second quarter, allowing Dallas to take control through defensive pressure, offensive rebounding, and balanced scoring. New York shot only 5-for-26 from three-point range and finished with 16 assists.
Stewart was still excellent in the loss. She scored 29 points on 10-for-16 shooting, collected nine rebounds, and added four assists. Jones contributed 17 points, 12 rebounds, and two blocks, but the Liberty did not receive enough perimeter production around their frontcourt stars.
New York remains one of the league's most efficient shooting teams. The Liberty average 87.8 points while shooting approximately 46 percent from the field, and their combination of Stewart and Jones creates difficult choices for opposing frontcourts. Stewart can score from every level, while Jones can punish switches inside or step beyond the arc.
The greater concern is New York's available depth. Fiebich is out with a foot injury after playing an important role in the first victory over Minnesota. Sabally remains in concussion protocol, while Allen and Astier are questionable. Those absences could leave the Liberty dependent on heavy minutes from Stewart, Jones, Ionescu, Marine Johannes, and Rebekah Gardner.
Minnesota improved to 16-6 by defeating Connecticut 86-80 on Wednesday. The Lynx recovered from a one-point home loss to the Sun and received 23 points from Kayla McBride. Dorka Juhász added 12 points and six rebounds in her second game back from a foot injury, giving Minnesota another important interior option.
The Lynx have remained at the top of the standings despite playing without Napheesa Collier. Minnesota has received expanded production from Natasha Howard, McBride, Courtney Williams, and rookie Olivia Miles. The offense averages 90 points per game and leads New York in rebounding, assists, steals, and overall field-goal percentage.
Miles missed the previous two games with a calf problem but was not listed on the official overnight injury report. Her expected return would give Minnesota another primary ball handler and restore its leading scorer. Miles is averaging 18.5 points and 5.7 assists while shooting better than 50 percent from the floor.
Minnesota's defense remains its foundation. The Lynx allow only 80.7 points per game, the best mark in the league, and force almost nine steals per contest. Their defensive versatility allows them to pressure the ball without constantly exposing the paint, while Howard and Juhász provide rebounding and interior resistance.
New York solved that defense in the first meeting by moving the ball quickly and getting Stewart into favorable matchups. The Liberty shot efficiently, scored 99 points, and prevented Minnesota from building its usual transition rhythm. Stewart scored 36, while every New York starter reached double figures.
Repeating that performance at Target Center will be difficult. Minnesota is more familiar with New York's offensive actions, Juhász is back in the rotation, and Miles appears positioned to return. The Lynx should also play with greater physicality against Jones after allowing the Liberty to establish comfortable interior touches in the first meeting.
New York must avoid the type of scoring drought that decided its loss to Dallas. Minnesota is too disciplined defensively to allow the Liberty to recover easily from another extended stretch of turnovers and missed threes. Ionescu and Johannes must create enough perimeter offense to prevent Minnesota from concentrating its defense on Stewart and Jones.
The Lynx should test New York's depleted wing depth by keeping the ball in motion. McBride can work through screens, Howard can attack from the elbow and low post, and Williams can pressure the defense off the dribble. Miles' potential return would add another downhill creator against a Liberty rotation missing one of its best perimeter defenders.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
New York won 99-86 when these teams met at Barclays Center on July 3. Stewart scored 36 points and led a starting lineup in which all five players reached double figures. The Liberty controlled the game offensively and handed Minnesota one of its most decisive losses of the season.
New York has won the last two meetings, including an 85-75 victory in August 2025. The larger series has been far more balanced. The teams have split their past 10 meetings, with Minnesota holding a 6-3-1 advantage against the spread during that span.
The recent history includes the five-game 2024 WNBA Finals, a series defined by physical defense, half-court execution, and narrow late-game margins. Seven of the previous 10 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer, although the July 3 game broke that pattern when New York separated in the second half.
The first matchup this season finished over the 174.5 total, but only four of the last 10 meetings have produced a clear over. The current personnel and scoring environments are different from the 2024 Finals, however. Minnesota is averaging 90 points, New York is close to 88, and both teams have played 12 overs in 21 graded totals.
Minnesota's central adjustment should involve Stewart. The Lynx cannot allow her to establish the same rhythm from the opening quarter. Howard, Juhász, and Minnesota's wings must make Stewart work for catches, force her toward help, and prevent the Liberty from repeatedly creating clean switches.
New York's defensive focus should be McBride and Miles. McBride scored 23 in Minnesota's latest win, while Miles changes the pace and shape of the offense when available. Fiebich's absence leaves the Liberty with fewer natural options for defending those perimeter actions without sending additional help.
Game Thesis: New York has enough elite talent to remain competitive, but Minnesota has the deeper available rotation, the stronger defense, and the clearer adjustment path after losing the first meeting. The return of Juhász and likely availability of Miles give the Lynx more offensive variety, while the Liberty must replace Fiebich's defense and shooting. Minnesota is projected to win 91-84, making the Lynx -5.5 the best bet.
Best Bet - Spread: Minnesota Lynx -5.5 (-105)
Minnesota has been one of the league's most reliable spread teams, covering 13 of 20 lined games. New York has covered nine of 19 and enters after failing to cover as a home favorite against Dallas. The Lynx should also play with greater urgency after being controlled in the first meeting.
The personnel changes favor Minnesota. Juhász did not play in the July 3 loss but is now back in the frontcourt rotation, while Miles appears likely to return after missing two games. New York, meanwhile, will not have Fiebich or Sabally and may be without Allen and Astier.
Minnesota's defense creates the clearest path to separation. The Lynx can pressure New York's guards, force the ball away from Stewart, and attack a shortened Liberty rotation over 40 minutes. New York may stay close through the first half, but Minnesota's depth should produce the decisive run after halftime.
Moneyline Pick: Minnesota Lynx (-188)
Minnesota is the preferred straight-up side despite losing the first meeting. The Lynx are 16-6, have won 10 of 12 road games, and have consistently responded after poor performances. They also returned from the July 3 loss by splitting two games with Connecticut, including an 86-80 road victory.
New York remains capable of winning through Stewart and Jones, but its margin for error is narrower without Fiebich. Minnesota can generate offense through more parts of its rotation and owns the league's strongest defense. The moneyline is expensive, but the game still points toward a Lynx victory.
Total Pick: Over 174.5 (-110)
The total has risen two points, but both teams have regularly exceeded market expectations. New York and Minnesota each entered with 12-9 over records, and their first meeting produced 185 points despite Minnesota scoring below its season average.
Miles' expected return raises Minnesota's transition and half-court ceiling. New York should also continue leaning heavily on Stewart and Jones, who combined for 46 points against Dallas and dominated the first Minnesota matchup. A score in the 90-84 range is enough to clear the current total.
Minnesota's defense is capable of controlling the game, but New York has already shown that it can score efficiently against this matchup. The Liberty's weakened perimeter defense also gives McBride, Williams, and Miles opportunities to push Minnesota toward another performance around 90 points.
Top Player Prop Picks for New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx
Breanna Stewart Over 19.5 Points (+100): Stewart scored 36 points against Minnesota eight days ago and followed that performance with 29 against Dallas. New York's shortened rotation should keep the offense centered on her, and a plus-money price is attractive for a player averaging 20.5 points.
Natasha Howard Over 14.5 Points (-115): Howard is averaging approximately 17 points and remains Minnesota's primary interior scorer without Collier. New York must devote significant attention to McBride and Miles on the perimeter, creating opportunities for Howard as a screener, roller, and offensive rebounder.
Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 Rebounds (-125): Jones averages 9.1 rebounds and collected 12 against Dallas. Minnesota is an effective rebounding team, but New York will need Jones on the floor for heavy minutes because of its depleted frontcourt and wing depth. Her defensive rebounding will be essential to preventing Minnesota from extending possessions.
Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 91, New York Liberty 84
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