New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Picks and Prediction, Friday, September 19, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the final game of the first round of the WNBA playoffs on Friday, Sept. 19. Read our New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury prediction along with the rest of our best WNBA Predictions! The two teams are tied at 1-1 going into the decisive Game 3 of the series. The Liberty secured Game 1 in overtime, but they failed to close out the series at home in their last game. The Mercury dominated Game 2 as their defense was great. It’s a win-or-go-home for both teams entering this matchup. The tip-off time is set for 9 P.M. EST.
Liberty looks to replicate win from Game 1
New York has the series tied 1-1 entering the final game of the 3-game series in the first round of the WNBA playoffs. The Liberty opened the playoffs with a big overtime win against Phoenix 76-69. They followed it with an 86-60 loss to Phoenix at home in Game 2. The Liberty were poor shooting 30% from the field and 23% from behind the arc. They also turned the ball over 15 times in the defeat.
During the regular season, New York was led in scoring by Breanna Stewart with 18.3 points per game. Jonquel Jones grabbed 8.1 rebounds per game to lead the roster. Sabrina Ioneascu, who also averaged 18.2 points per game, passed for a team-high 5.7 assists per game.
New York is averaging 84.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. They are shooting 45.3% from the field, ranking fourth. The Liberty are the second-best 3-point shooting team, making 35.5% from behind the arc.
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On defense, the Liberty are allowing 80.3 points per game, placing them fifth. They are forcing their opponents to shoot 42.4% from the field, ranking them third. New York is also the best 3-point defensive team, allowing opponents to shoot 31.5% from deep.
The Liberty covered as a 2-point favorite in the first round against the Mercury. The total was set at 164 and the under hit in the game despite the game going to overtime. New York did not cover as a 5-point favorite in the Game 2 loss. The under hit once again.
New York is 15-27-2 against the spread during the regular season. They went 11-10-2, gaining the spread at home. The Liberty were also 1-3 against the spread versus Phoenix. They are 14-20-1 against the spread as a favorite. The under is 25-18-1 when Liberty have played this year. The under is 15-7 when New York has played at home. The total is 2-2 when the Liberty have faced the Mercury.
There are no injuries listed of the Liberty.
Phoenix ready to defend home court in decisive Game 3
Phoenix has the series tied 1-1 coming into the decisive final game of the first round of the playoffs. The Mercury lost Game 1 in overtime 76-69 at home earlier this week.
In the last game, they defeated the Liberty in their building convincingly by a score of 86-60. Phoenix shot 48% from the field and 29% from behind the arc. They forced 15 turnovers which led to 25 points for the Mercury. Four different players scored 14 points or more in the win. Alyssa Thomas scored 15 points, 7 assists and six rebounds to lead the team.
In the regular season, Satou Sabally led the team with 16.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas was great in the regular season, grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
Phoenix was averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best in the regular season. They were the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury were also the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
On defense, the Mercury were allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth in the regular season. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked regular-season defense, giving up 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
Phoenix did not cover in Game 1 against New York. They were 2-point underdogs and did not cover the spread. The under hit in the game with the total set at 164. In Game 2, Phoenix covered as a 5-point underdog. The under hit once again with the total at 161.
Phoenix was 21-22-1 against the spread in the regular season. They are 9-12-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Mercury are 3-1 against the spread versus the Liberty in the regular season. They were also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The total is 2-2 during the four matchups versus Phoenix. The under is 11-6-2 during Phoenix road games.
There are no injuries listed for the Mercury in this game.
New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
- Phoenix Mercury -2 (5 units)
The Mercury were fantastic in Game 2. They did everything correctly with their amazing defense, forcing tough shots on the Liberty all game long. Their offense was great, too. They had multiple scorers at all times. Not one player dominated the ball while it moved around all evening. Phoenix can stick to this tactic; they can come away with the win easily. The Liberty looked like a shell of themselves in Game 2 and they could be in for a tough defeat to end their season. Phoenix’s efficiency and defensive strength were all they needed to get their confidence back and help them advance to the next round.
Take Phoenix to cover.
Over/Under Pick for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury
- Under 156 (5 units)
The under has hit in the first two games of this playoff round. The under was hitting almost every time during Phoenix vs New York games in the regular season. The pace of the game slows down and defense takes over between the two squads. With the importance of this game, possessions will be at a premium, with the game's focus being solely on good defensive stops. This will continue in this game just like it has been in the previous two games in the playoffs.
Take the under on Friday.
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