New York Liberty vs Portland Fire Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Tuesday May 12 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Liberty roll into Portland with a perfect 2-0 record, but the spread tells you the betting market is taking a long look at the Liberty's injury report before stamping this game. For bettors looking for sharp WNBA picks on a Tuesday late-window game, this 10:00 p.m. ET matchup at the Moda Center is a heavy double-digit number that has only been climbing through the day. Breanna Stewart has been dominant, Portland is still searching for its first win, and the public is pouring money on the home dog. With the line at -12.5 and reverse-line-movement working the other way, the home underdog angle is the cleaner ticket.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: Portland +12.5
- Total Pick: Over 173.5
- Projected Final Score: New York 96, Portland 86
Odds and Line Movement
The New York spread opened at -13.5 and has crept around between -11.5 and -13.5 across multiple checkpoints, with the most recent number at -12.5. The total has climbed steadily from 173.5 to 173.5 with the over reporting 100% of dollars and 100% of tickets at every recent checkpoint. On the spread, 95% of dollars and 84% of tickets are on Portland, yet the line has not collapsed all the way back, which is itself a signal worth tracking.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York | -13½-105 | 173½-110 |
| Portland | 13½-115 | 173½-110 |
NY at POR Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New York | -12½-115 | 173½-112 |
| Portland | 12½-105 | 173½-108 |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | New York | Portland | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12 | 10:13:20AM | -12½-115 | 12½-105 | POR 95%, POR 84% |
| 05/12 | 08:46:07AM | -13½-102 | 13½-118 | POR 95%, POR 84% |
| 05/12 | 08:39:27AM | -12½-115 | 12½-105 | POR 95%, POR 84% |
| 05/12 | 08:19:18AM | -12½-108 | 12½-112 | POR 95%, POR 84% |
| 05/12 | 07:03:57AM | -12½-105 | 12½-115 | POR 93%, POR 80% |
| 05/12 | 02:05:47AM | -11½-112 | 11½-108 | POR 93%, POR 80% |
| 05/12 | 01:22:57AM | -11½-115 | 11½-105 | POR 87%, POR 67% |
| 05/12 | 01:17:07AM | -11½-112 | 11½-108 | POR 87%, POR 67% |
| 05/11 | 11:19:27PM | -11½-118 | 11½-102 | NY 100%, NY 100% |
| 05/11 | 11:19:27PM | |||
| 05/11 | 04:19:47PM | -12½-105 | 12½-115 | |
| 05/11 | 04:19:47PM | |||
| 05/11 | 12:39:04AM | -13½-105 | 13½-115 |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12 | 09:21:10AM | 173½-112 | 173½-108 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/12 | 08:46:07AM | 173½-108 | 173½-112 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/12 | 08:39:27AM | 173½-105 | 173½-115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/12 | 08:19:18AM | 172½-115 | 172½-105 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/12 | 02:12:27AM | 173½-105 | 173½-115 | OV 100%, OV 100% |
| 05/11 | 12:39:04AM | 173½-110 | 173½-110 |
Liberty vs Fire Key Matchups and Handicap
The Liberty enter Tuesday's 10:00 p.m. ET matchup at 2-0 and laying a massive spread against a Portland team that is 0-1 after a 98-83 home loss to Chicago. New York has already shown it can win in different ways, most recently beating Washington 98-93 in overtime despite losing the rebounding battle 42-34. The offensive profile remains dangerous behind Breanna Stewart, who is averaging 27.0 points and 9.5 rebounds while shooting 47.5% from the field and 93.8% at the free-throw line. Jonquel Jones' absence from the leader panel is notable, but Julie Vanloo gives the Liberty needed stability as a passer, averaging 6.5 assists, and New York still shot 48% overall, 33% from three and 82% at the line in their last game.
The Fire's opener showed some fight but also major problems: Portland shot just 41% from the field, was outrebounded 46-24 and led only 6% of the game against Chicago. That rebounding gap is especially concerning against a Liberty team with Stewart's size and scoring versatility. Portland's offensive production runs through C. Leite, who scored 18 points but shot only 27.3% in the opener, while Luisa Geiselsoder leads the team with 7.0 rebounds and Bridget Carleton is at 4.0 assists per game.
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Even with the Liberty absences, New York still has the best player on the floor in Stewart and has already scored 98-plus points in back-to-back games. Portland's poor rebounding and defensive issues are hard to overlook, but the visiting injury list makes a backdoor cover possible for the home dog.
NY and POR Betting Trends
The public action has been overwhelmingly on Portland, with 95% of dollars and 84% of tickets on the home dog, and yet the line has bounced between -11.5 and -13.5 rather than collapsing to a single low number. That signals the books are willing to wear public action on Portland because the matchup metrics still favor New York. The over has been hammered with 100% of dollars and 100% of tickets across every recent checkpoint, which pushed the total from 172.5 to 173.5.
NY and POR Key Injuries and Notes
Injuries heavily shape this matchup. The Liberty are short-handed with Satou Sabally, Rebecca Allen, Raquel Carrera, Leonie Fiebich and Sabrina Ionescu all out, which removes shooting, wing depth and elite guard creation, making the double-digit spread more dangerous than it might look at full strength. The Fire are not clean either, with Karlie Samuelson out and Kamiah Smalls and Sug Sutton both game-time decisions with knee issues. The Ionescu absence is the biggest single name for New York because her guard creation cannot be fully replaced even with Vanloo's passing.
Liberty vs Fire ATS and Total Picks
- ATS Pick: Portland +12.5
- Total Pick: Over 173.5
Taking Portland with the points fits the matchup profile because New York's injury list is severe, the spread is a number where backdoor covers become a real possibility, and the home dog has the kind of late-game variance that double-digit spreads rarely contain. The over at 173.5 is the natural pairing because both teams should run high-pace possessions, the Liberty have already scored 98-plus in back-to-back games, and Portland's defense allowed 98 points in their opener.
Final Score Prediction
- New York 96, Portland 86
Stewart leads the Liberty with another big scoring night, Vanloo distributes the offense well, Portland's home crowd helps them push back in the second half, and the final lands within the cover number while clearing the total.
How to Bet Liberty vs Fire
The smart play here is to grab Portland +12.5 before the number slides any further, especially with the heavy injury list on the New York side making a backdoor cover meaningfully more likely. The over at 173.5 is the cleaner secondary play, and locking it in at -108 before any further climb is the right move with the over steam already pushing the total up by a full point. For bettors in states without legal sportsbook access or anyone who prefers using sweeps coins, social sportsbooks are a strong way to get tonight's spread and over tickets in. New users can also grab the fliff promo code to pad their starting balance before locking in Portland and the over.
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