New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday June 25 2026
Use Code WWWC The Liberty visit Seattle as double-digit favourites while the Storm try to end an 11-game losing streak.
This preview breaks down the latest lines, injury news, matchup trends, and top WNBA player props for Thursday night's game.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: New York Liberty (-649 at BetMGM) / Seattle Storm (+500 at bet365)
Best Spread Odds: New York Liberty -11.5 (-110 at BetMGM) / Seattle Storm +11.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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Best Total Odds: Over 169.5 (-112 at FanDuel) / Under 171.0 (-110 at bet365)
Game Info
Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
Time: 10:00 PM EDT
Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
TV: CW Seattle, WWOR-TV, Liberty Live, WNBA League Pass
New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm Preview
The New York Liberty enter Thursday at 12-6 after earning an 87-76 road victory over the Las Vegas Aces.
New York controlled the game from the opening quarter and never trailed. The Liberty built an early advantage, survived a Las Vegas push, and pulled away again during the fourth quarter.
Breanna Stewart led the Liberty with 20 points, six rebounds, four assists, and three blocks.
Stewart scored 15 of her 20 points during the second half, including 12 in the fourth quarter. She repeatedly answered Las Vegas whenever the Aces threatened to reduce the deficit.
Sabrina Ionescu added 16 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists. It was one of her strongest all-around performances since returning from the ankle and back injuries that disrupted the beginning of her season.
Ionescu's return substantially raises New York's offensive ceiling.
The Liberty had already developed one of the league's deepest rotations without her. Adding another primary ball handler and high-volume three-point shooter allows New York to distribute creation responsibilities more effectively.
Ionescu can initiate the offense, attack from the pick-and-roll, or work away from the ball while Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Pauline Astier, or Marine Johannès controls the possession.
Jones finished with 14 points against Las Vegas and remains one of the most important matchup advantages Thursday.
She enters averaging approximately 14.2 points and 8.8 rebounds while shooting close to 49% from the field.
Jones can score through post touches, offensive rebounds, pick-and-roll finishes, and perimeter shots. That versatility becomes especially difficult for a Seattle frontcourt playing without Ezi Magbegor.
Magbegor is out with a right-foot injury. Her absence removes Seattle's most experienced interior defender and one of the league's most reliable rim protectors.
Dominique Malonga possesses outstanding size and developing defensive ability, but asking the young centre to handle Jones without consistent help creates a difficult assignment.
Jones can use her strength to establish deep position before the pass arrives. She can also pull Malonga away from the basket and attack slower defensive recoveries.
Stewart presents a second frontcourt problem.
She enters averaging approximately 19.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, three assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks.
Seattle must decide whether to use Malonga on Jones and Awa Fam on Stewart or switch those assignments.
Neither option provides an obvious solution. Jones owns the physical advantage against smaller defenders, while Stewart can attack traditional centres from the perimeter.
Satou Sabally is questionable with a head injury sustained against Las Vegas.
Sabally left Tuesday's game during the second quarter and did not return. She has averaged approximately 10.4 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.9 assists through 13 appearances.
Her possible absence would reduce New York's size and transition scoring, but the Liberty possess enough depth to redistribute those minutes.
Leonie Fiebich can move into a larger role. She averages approximately 9.3 points while shooting above 42% from three-point range.
Fiebich scored a season-high 19 points against Washington last week and has continued providing efficient perimeter shooting without requiring a large number of possessions.
Her size also allows New York to maintain switchable defensive lineups even when Sabally is unavailable.
Betnijah Laney-Hamilton provides another experienced wing defender. She has gradually returned to the rotation following knee surgery and a recent personal absence.
Laney-Hamilton's minutes remain controlled, but she can defend guards, wings, and selected forwards while allowing Stewart to remain closer to the basket.
Astier has also earned a meaningful role.
The rookie scored 17 points with four rebounds and five assists during New York's 98-97 loss to Los Angeles.
Astier gives the Liberty another guard capable of organizing the offense when Ionescu rests. Her emergence prevents New York from becoming completely dependent on one primary creator.
Johannès supplies additional shooting and improvisational playmaking.
New York can therefore use different lineup structures depending on the game state.
The Liberty can play through Jones and Stewart inside, surround them with shooters, or use smaller groups that increase the pace and defensive pressure.
New York averages approximately 88.9 points while allowing 83.1.
The Liberty shoot above 46% from the field and approximately 36% from three-point range.
Their scoring has remained balanced. Stewart leads the team, but Jones, Ionescu, Fiebich, Sabally, Astier, and Johannès can all produce meaningful offensive stretches.
New York enters 6-2 on the road and 8-2 across its last 10 games.
The Liberty's recent results have not all been dominant.
They lost 86-83 to Washington after surrendering a late lead and then wasted a 17-point advantage during a 98-97 loss to Los Angeles.
Those performances revealed occasional problems with late-game execution, transition defense, and maintaining offensive structure after building a lead.
New York responded effectively against Las Vegas.
The Liberty controlled the pace, defended A'ja Wilson collectively, and produced important baskets whenever the Aces attempted a comeback.
Thursday's challenge is maintaining the same level of focus against the team at the bottom of the Western Conference.
The Seattle Storm enter at 3-15 and have lost 11 consecutive games.
The record creates the impression of a team being overwhelmed every night, but Seattle has remained competitive during much of its recent schedule.
Four of the Storm's past five losses were decided by five points or fewer.
Seattle lost 88-83 to Los Angeles, 76-72 to Golden State, 94-89 to Portland, and 112-110 in overtime against Dallas.
The exception was a 93-73 defeat in Phoenix.
Monday's loss to Dallas was Seattle's most productive offensive performance of the season.
The Storm shot approximately 51% from the field and pushed one of the league's stronger teams into overtime.
Malonga delivered the best game of her young career.
She finished with 37 points, 12 rebounds, and two blocks while consistently scoring through post touches, rolls, offensive rebounds, and transition opportunities.
Malonga used her length to finish over smaller defenders and displayed improved patience when Dallas sent help toward the paint.
The performance demonstrated her long-term ceiling. Few centres possess her combination of size, mobility, and touch around the basket.
Thursday presents a substantially more difficult matchup.
Jones can match Malonga's size while using greater strength and experience. Stewart can provide help from different angles without leaving a non-shooter completely unattended.
New York can also change the matchup by using Han Xu or another larger defender for selected possessions.
Malonga must respond without forcing difficult attempts merely because she scored 37 in the previous game.
Seattle's offense functions better when the ball moves through Malonga rather than stopping with her.
Natisha Hiedeman added 21 points against Dallas and remains Seattle's leading scorer for the season.
She enters averaging approximately 15.6 points and 4.7 assists.
Hiedeman supplies the Storm's most reliable source of perimeter creation. She can attack ball screens, create pull-up shots, and find Malonga when opposing centres move toward the ball.
The Liberty can pressure her with Ionescu, Fiebich, Laney-Hamilton, Astier, and Johannès.
New York's size on the perimeter makes it difficult for Hiedeman to create clear passing lanes.
Flau'jae Johnson remains another important part of Seattle's developing core.
The rookie averages approximately 11.4 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.3 assists.
Johnson has struggled with shooting efficiency, but her athleticism allows her to contribute through transition scoring, offensive rebounds, steals, and physical drives.
Seattle needs her to attack rather than settling exclusively for contested perimeter shots.
New York will likely encourage Johnson to shoot from outside while protecting the paint against Malonga and Hiedeman.
Fam gives Seattle another frontcourt scorer and playmaker.
She can operate from the high post, attack slower defenders, and create passing opportunities when New York sends additional attention toward Malonga.
The Storm's priority should be involving Fam early enough to prevent the offense from becoming predictable.
Zia Cooke provides another source of perimeter scoring, while Jade Melbourne returns to the available rotation after previously dealing with a foot issue.
Jordan Horston remains out with a right-foot injury.
Her absence removes one of Seattle's most versatile defenders and an important transition threat.
Without Horston and Magbegor, Seattle has fewer experienced defenders capable of changing assignments throughout a possession.
Taina Mair is also unavailable because of a coach's decision.
The shortened rotation places additional pressure on Hiedeman, Johnson, Malonga, Fam, Melbourne, and Cooke.
Seattle averages approximately 78.8 points, the lowest scoring figure in the league.
The Storm allow approximately 85.9 points and collect only 31.6 rebounds per game.
The rebounding gap is particularly concerning Thursday.
New York averages approximately 35.5 boards and can create second-chance opportunities through Jones and Stewart.
Seattle must complete defensive possessions rather than assuming one contested shot will be enough.
Allowing Jones to collect offensive rebounds can quickly produce layups, free throws, or open perimeter shots after the defense collapses.
The Storm's recent offense provides some optimism, but one 110-point overtime game should not erase the larger sample.
Seattle scored 73, 89, 72, and 83 during its four previous games.
The Storm have struggled to create efficient offense whenever opponents prevent Malonga from establishing early position and force Hiedeman into contested pull-up shots.
New York possesses the personnel required to execute that approach.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
This is the first meeting between New York and Seattle during the 2026 season.
The Liberty won the most recent matchup 84-76 at Climate Pledge Arena on September 5, 2025.
That game was controlled by New York's frontcourt and defensive structure, although both rosters have changed since then.
The current Seattle team is more focused on developing Malonga, Johnson, Fam, and its younger guards.
New York remains built around the established championship core of Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu.
The most important matchup is again inside.
Seattle's path to keeping the game close begins with Malonga and Fam preventing Jones and Stewart from controlling the glass.
If New York creates repeated offensive rebounds, the Liberty can build separation without shooting exceptionally well from three-point range.
The Storm must also limit turnovers.
New York converts live-ball mistakes into transition baskets before the defense can organize around Malonga.
Seattle has a better chance when it forces the Liberty to execute against a set half-court defense.
The Storm can keep the margin manageable if Hiedeman and Malonga reproduce a portion of Monday's offensive chemistry.
They do not need another combined 58 points, but Seattle requires both players to generate efficient production.
New York can win comfortably without covering a spread above 11 points.
The Liberty's recent road games included a one-point win at Chicago, a one-point loss to Los Angeles, and an 11-point victory over Las Vegas.
Seattle has repeatedly remained within striking distance despite the losing streak.
Game Thesis: New York owns overwhelming advantages in experience, depth, shooting, rebounding, and defensive versatility. The Liberty should win outright and control most of the game. Seattle has nevertheless lost four of its past five games by five points or fewer, while New York has not consistently created margins above 11 points on the road. The Storm can remain within the spread if Malonga and Hiedeman keep the offense functional. New York's defence and Seattle's season-long scoring problems also create a stronger case for Under 171 than the original Over recommendation. A projected 87-78 Liberty victory supports New York on the moneyline, Seattle against the spread, and the Under.
⭐ Best Bet - Spread Pick: Seattle Storm +11.5 (-110)
Seattle +11.5 is the strongest game wager.
The Storm have lost 11 consecutive games, but the market has already priced that losing streak into a double-digit spread.
Seattle has been far more competitive than the record suggests during the last two weeks.
Four of its past five defeats were decided by five points or fewer.
The Storm pushed Dallas into overtime Monday and were one possession away from ending the streak.
Malonga's development gives Seattle a more reliable source of interior scoring than it possessed earlier in the season.
Hiedeman can also create enough perimeter offense to prevent New York from concentrating every defender around the basket.
Seattle does not need to threaten an outright victory to cover.
A loss by 11 points or fewer cashes the selection.
New York has not consistently produced large road margins.
The Liberty beat Chicago by one, lost to Los Angeles by one, and defeated Las Vegas by 11 during their three most recent road appearances.
Sabally's questionable status also matters.
Her absence would reduce New York's lineup flexibility and create additional minutes for players returning from injuries or carrying smaller roles.
The central risk is Seattle's frontcourt depth.
Without Magbegor, the Storm may have no reliable answer if Jones establishes herself near the basket.
New York could create a 15-point advantage through offensive rebounds and free throws even without shooting well.
Seattle also carries the league's lowest-scoring offense. One extended drought can turn a competitive game into a large deficit.
The Storm have nevertheless shown enough recent offensive improvement to remain inside a generous home number.
Projected scores such as 87-78, 86-77, or 88-80 all support Seattle +11.5.
Total Pick: Under 171.0 (-110)
Under 171 is preferable to the original Over recommendation.
Seattle's 110-point performance against Dallas required overtime and represents a clear departure from its season-long offense.
The Storm average only 78.8 points.
They scored 73, 89, 72, and 83 during the four games preceding the Dallas loss.
New York also presents a substantially more difficult defensive matchup.
The Liberty held Las Vegas to 76 points and prevented Wilson from establishing consistent interior scoring.
Jones and Stewart can use a similar team structure against Malonga.
New York can defend the first post move while positioning help near the lane without completely abandoning Seattle's perimeter shooters.
The Liberty allow approximately 83.1 points per game.
Seattle would likely need to approach or exceed 80 for the Over to become comfortable.
The Storm may also attempt to slow the game.
A high-possession contest favours New York's depth and transition offense. Seattle has a better chance by using Malonga in deliberate half-court actions and reducing the number of possessions.
New York is capable of carrying a large portion of the total.
The Liberty average 88.9 points and could approach 90 against a Seattle defense missing Magbegor and Horston.
The total can still remain Under if the Storm finish in the mid-to-high 70s.
New York's recent games have produced totals of 163 against Las Vegas and 169 against Washington, with the 195-point Los Angeles game requiring an unusually efficient comeback.
The strongest Over argument is Seattle's recent defensive performance.
Dallas scored 112, Portland scored 94, Phoenix scored 93, and Los Angeles scored 88.
The Storm can allow enough efficient offense for New York to create a fast pace on its own.
The 171-point line provides useful protection compared with the lower numbers available elsewhere.
Projected scores such as 87-78, 88-79, or 86-77 remain below the total.
Top Player Prop Picks
Jonquel Jones Over 13.5 Points (-115) Jones enters averaging approximately 14.2 points and has exceeded 13.5 in five of her past six appearances.
She scored 14 against Las Vegas, 18 against Los Angeles, 19 against Chicago, 20 against Washington, and 16 against Atlanta during that stretch.
The matchup provides one of her clearest advantages of the season.
Seattle remains without Magbegor, removing its strongest experienced interior defender.
Malonga possesses the size to contest Jones, but Jones can use strength, positioning, and footwork to establish herself before the pass arrives.
New York can also involve Jones in screening actions.
If Malonga remains near the basket, Jones can create perimeter opportunities. If Seattle's centre moves higher, Jones can roll into space or seal a smaller switching defender.
Offensive rebounds provide another scoring path.
Seattle averages only 31.6 rebounds, compared with New York's 35.5.
Jones averages nearly two offensive rebounds per game and can turn those opportunities into immediate putbacks or free throws.
Sabally's possible absence may increase Jones' offensive involvement.
New York would have fewer established frontcourt scorers available, creating additional post touches and shots.
The greatest concern is the score.
A large New York lead could reduce Jones' fourth-quarter minutes.
She can still reach 14 points within approximately 26 to 30 minutes because of the favourable interior matchup.
Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 Rebounds (+110) Stewart enters averaging 8.8 rebounds and has collected at least 10 in four of her last six games.
The plus-money price is attractive for a line sitting almost directly on her season average.
Seattle is one of the league's weakest rebounding teams.
The Storm average 31.6 boards and remain without Magbegor.
Malonga is a productive rebounder, but she cannot control every missed shot while also handling the primary defensive assignment against Jones.
Stewart can collect defensive rebounds when Seattle's guards and wings miss from the perimeter.
Johnson is shooting approximately 34% from the field and 25% from three-point range, creating regular rebounding opportunities.
Seattle may also use Fam away from the basket, further reducing its offensive-rebound presence.
Stewart's versatility keeps her involved regardless of the lineup.
When Jones plays centre, Stewart can rebound from the weak side. When New York uses a smaller group, Stewart becomes one of the primary defensive rebounders.
Her former-team connection does not create statistical value by itself, but she has historically remained active at Climate Pledge Arena.
The largest risk is reduced playing time during a blowout.
Seattle +11.5 assumes the game remains competitive enough for Stewart to approach her normal workload.
Nine rebounds is a realistic target based on her recent production and Seattle's weakened frontcourt.
Dominique Malonga Under 16.5 Points (-105) Malonga enters after scoring a career-high 37 points against Dallas.
That performance demonstrated her extraordinary ceiling, but the matchup and adjusted market create a strong regression position.
Malonga had not approached 37 points consistently before Monday.
New York owns substantially more frontcourt size than Dallas displayed during much of that game.
Jones can defend Malonga without surrendering an immediate physical disadvantage.
Stewart can provide secondary help, contest turnaround shots, and disrupt passing angles from the weak side.
New York can also force Malonga to receive the ball farther from the basket.
Each additional step between the catch and the rim creates time for help defenders to arrive.
The Liberty held Wilson to 16 points Tuesday by showing different defenders and sending assistance after she began her move.
A similar structure can make Malonga a passer rather than allowing her to repeatedly finish one-on-one.
Seattle may also face a negative game state.
If New York creates an early lead, the Storm could increase their three-point volume rather than continuing to feed the post.
Hiedeman, Johnson, Cooke, and Melbourne may take a larger percentage of the available shots.
Malonga remains capable of clearing the line through offensive rebounds and free throws.
Magbegor's absence ensures that Seattle will continue giving her significant minutes.
The 37-point performance has raised expectations faster than the matchup supports.
New York's size, defensive discipline, and ability to send help toward the paint support Malonga finishing closer to 13 or 14 points.
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