New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Sunday July 12 2026
Use Code WWWC The New York Liberty complete a difficult back-to-back Sunday afternoon when they face the Toronto Tempo at the Bell Centre in Montreal. New York enters at 13-10 after falling 90-85 to Minnesota on Saturday, while Toronto is 9-13 following a 108-95 home loss to Dallas.
Both teams have enough perimeter scoring to threaten a rising scoreboard, but New York owns the stronger frontcourt and more dependable late-game creators. Bettors examining the individual matchups can also review the latest WNBA player props before the 3:00 PM EDT tipoff.
Best Available Odds for New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo
- Moneyline: New York Liberty -265 | Toronto Tempo +215
- Spread: New York Liberty -6.5 (-108) | Toronto Tempo +6.5 (-112)
- Total: Over 176.5 (-110) | Under 176.5 (-110)
Odds and Line Movement
New York opened as a 7.5-point favorite before the spread moved to -6.5. The adjustment toward Toronto reflects the Liberty's back-to-back schedule, Saturday's physical game in Minnesota, and uncertainty surrounding several New York rotation players.
The total opened at 177.5 before settling at 176.5. That slight move toward the under has come despite Toronto producing 95 points against Dallas and New York scoring 85 against the league's strongest defensive team.
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Toronto has played 13 of its first 20 graded totals over, while New York has produced 12 overs in 21 games. Those results make the total one of the strongest angles in the current WNBA betting trends, particularly with both teams relying heavily on high-usage perimeter scorers.
The moneyline has remained expensive, with New York priced near -265. Toronto is available above +200, but the Tempo have struggled against teams currently holding playoff positions and have not consistently closed games against deeper opponents.
Game Info
- Date: Sunday, July 12, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM EDT
- Location: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec
- TV: NBA TV, Fox 5, and TSN
New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo Preview
New York nearly completed a major comeback Saturday before losing 90-85 to Minnesota. The Liberty fell behind by 15 points but used a 21-5 third-quarter run to briefly take the lead. Sabrina Ionescu scored 19 of her 25 points during that quarter and repeatedly punished Minnesota when the Lynx gave her space beyond the arc.
Breanna Stewart supplied steady production throughout the game, while Jonquel Jones continued to control important possessions around the basket. New York's frontcourt remains the largest matchup problem for Toronto because Stewart can score from every level and Jones can punish smaller defenders on the glass.
The Liberty's primary concern is availability. Satou Sabally and Leonie Fiebich entered Sunday as game-time decisions after missing Saturday. Their absences would again shorten New York's wing rotation and require heavier minutes from Stewart, Ionescu, Marine Johannes, Rebekah Gardner, and the available reserves.
New York also played an intense afternoon game fewer than 24 hours before Sunday's tipoff. The Liberty must travel from Minneapolis to Montreal and immediately prepare for a Toronto offense that prefers to attack early in possessions. That schedule makes the defensive effort more difficult, particularly if the Tempo can force New York's veteran frontcourt to run.
Toronto enters after allowing Dallas to score 108 points Friday. The Tempo remained competitive offensively but could not stop Paige Bueckers, Jessica Shepard, or the Wings' transition attack. Dallas shot efficiently, dominated important rebounding possessions, and produced its fourth consecutive victory.
Marina Mabrey scored 34 points in the loss and remains the center of Toronto's offense. She is averaging more than 21 points per game and has taken on an even larger role while Brittney Sykes is sidelined. Mabrey must create shots, organize possessions, and frequently defend one of the opponent's stronger guards.
Laura Juskaite added 25 points against Dallas and gave Toronto another scoring option when the Wings sent additional defenders toward Mabrey. Her ability to repeat that production will be important because New York can use Stewart, Gardner, and its available wings to change the initial defensive matchup.
Toronto's rotation remains affected by injuries. Sykes, Kiki Rice, and Temi Fagbenle have missed time, while Nyara Sabally has also dealt with a knee issue. The absences reduce Toronto's perimeter creation and frontcourt depth, forcing Julie Allemand, Maria Conde, Juskaite, and the available reserves into larger roles.
The Tempo can still score because Mabrey creates defensive reactions on nearly every possession. When opponents blitz her pick-and-rolls, Toronto can move the ball toward Juskaite, Conde, or an interior finisher. The problem is sustaining that offense once Mabrey rests or when the supporting shooters are not converting open attempts.
New York should attack Toronto through Jones early. Dallas collected important offensive rebounds Friday, and Toronto's shortened frontcourt struggled to finish defensive possessions. Jones can establish deep position, create second chances, and force Toronto to send help away from Ionescu and Johannes.
Stewart presents a different problem. Toronto lacks a natural defender who can match her size without giving away mobility. Stewart can post smaller wings, drive past slower forwards, and create clean passing angles when the Tempo brings a second defender.
The Liberty should also receive opportunities in transition. Toronto's offense has become increasingly concentrated around Mabrey, and aggressive defenses have forced her into difficult passes. New York can convert live-ball turnovers into early threes before the Tempo establishes its preferred switching coverages.
Toronto's best route is to make this a shooting contest. The Tempo need Mabrey, Juskaite, and Allemand to convert from the perimeter while pushing the pace against a tired opponent. New York is capable of winning a high-scoring game, but the back-to-back makes it harder for the Liberty to defend at their usual level for 40 minutes.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
Toronto's expansion status leaves a limited head-to-head sample, so the current personnel matchup carries more weight than a long-term series record. New York owns the experience advantage, while Toronto has built much of its identity around pace, perimeter shooting, and Mabrey's individual creation.
The matchup begins with the paint. Toronto must prevent Jones and Stewart from controlling the offensive glass. The Tempo allowed Dallas to extend possessions Friday, and New York has enough shooting to punish a defense after the first rotation has already broken down.
New York must decide how aggressively to defend Mabrey. Sending two defenders can remove her initial scoring opportunity, but it creates four-on-three situations for Toronto's supporting cast. The Liberty may prefer to change defenders and force Mabrey into contested pull-up shots rather than allowing easy passes toward the middle.
The back-to-back also affects New York's substitution pattern. Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu cannot be expected to play nearly the entire game without some decline in defensive activity. Toronto must attack those reserve minutes and avoid allowing the Liberty to build separation when Mabrey is resting.
New York remains the better late-game team. Ionescu and Stewart can both create shots without relying on a perfect offensive action, while Jones gives the Liberty a reliable interior target. Toronto is more vulnerable when opponents force the ball away from Mabrey during the final minutes.
Game Thesis: Toronto should score efficiently enough to keep the game competitive, particularly against a New York team playing on consecutive days. The Liberty still own decisive advantages through Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu, giving them the stronger closing lineup. New York is projected to win 93-86, making over 176.5 the best bet.
Best Bet - Total: Over 176.5 (-110)
Toronto has scored 95 points in consecutive meetings with Dallas and Golden State, while Mabrey continues to carry one of the league's largest offensive workloads. The Tempo are playing without several important defenders and have allowed at least 100 points in two of their last three games.
New York scored 85 against Minnesota despite playing one of the league's strongest defensive teams. Ionescu found her rhythm after halftime, Stewart remained efficient, and the Liberty generated enough interior offense to remain dangerous even when the perimeter shooting was uneven.
The schedule should affect New York more on defense than offense. Stewart, Jones, and Ionescu can still create quality shots through skill and spacing, but tired legs make transition defense and repeated closeouts more difficult.
A projected score of 93-86 produces 179 points. Neither team needs an extreme shooting performance to clear the current number, especially if Toronto succeeds in increasing the pace during the first half.
Top Player Prop Picks for New York Liberty vs Toronto Tempo
Breanna Stewart Over 20.5 Points (+100): Stewart remains New York's most dependable scorer and faces a Toronto rotation without a natural answer for her combination of size and mobility. The Liberty should use her from the post, elbow, and perimeter whenever Toronto attempts to switch.
Sabrina Ionescu Over 17.5 Points (+100): Ionescu scored 25 against Minnesota and found her rhythm with a dominant third quarter. Toronto's guard depth is limited, and New York should continue giving Ionescu a high number of pick-and-roll possessions.
Marina Mabrey Over 20.5 Points (-115): Mabrey scored 34 against Dallas and remains responsible for a large share of Toronto's shot creation. Even if New York sends additional pressure toward her, the volume of shots and free-throw opportunities should keep her above 20 points.
Prediction: New York Liberty 93, Toronto Tempo 86
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