Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Picks and Prediction for Sunday, May 24, 2026
Use Code WWWC The Phoenix Mercury visit the Atlanta Dream at Gateway Center on Sunday at 3:00 PM ET on WNBA League Pass. Phoenix is 2-4 and seventh in the Western Conference, while Atlanta is 3-1 and leads the Eastern Conference. The Mercury have lost two straight games after allowing 97 and 98 points in their last two outings. Atlanta enters this matchup after an 86-69 win over Dallas and has won three of its first four games this season. Check out our latest free WNBA picks before tip-off.
Mercury Searching for Defensive Improvement
Phoenix continues struggling defensively after allowing 185 combined points across the last two losses against Los Angeles and Toronto. The Mercury have now surrendered at least 88 points in four of six games this season, placing pressure on the offense to keep pace in high-scoring matchups.
The Mercury are averaging 88.5 points per game while shooting 42.6% from the field and 34.3% from three-point range. Kahleah Copper leads the offense with 18.5 points per game despite shooting only 34.0% overall. Alyssa Thomas has provided strong all-around production with 17.7 points, 8.2 assists, and 7.2 rebounds per game, while Natasha Mack is averaging 10.3 points and 8.7 rebounds. Jovana Nogic has also contributed 15.3 points per contest while shooting 51.4% from beyond the arc.
Phoenix has struggled defensively despite averaging 7.3 steals and 3.5 blocks per game. Opponents are shooting 46.2% from the field and 37.3% from three-point range against the Mercury this season. Phoenix is also allowing 87.8 points per game and has been vulnerable in transition and around the perimeter during recent losses.
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Injuries: Shay Ciezki, Out, Sami Whitcomb, Out
Dream Building Early Momentum
Atlanta continued its strong start Friday with an 86-69 victory over Dallas after limiting the Wings to 39.7% shooting from the field. The Dream have already beaten Dallas twice this season and nearly defeated Las Vegas before falling 85-84 last week. Atlanta has also held opponents below 83 points in three of four games.
The Dream are averaging 84.0 points per game while leading the WNBA with 45.0 rebounds per contest. Allisha Gray has been outstanding with 25.0 points per game while shooting 42.% from the field and 80.8% at the free-throw line. Jordin Canada has added 14.0 points and 5.3 assists per game, while Angel Reese is averaging 12.7 rebounds with 10.7 points and 1.7 blocks. Rhyne Howard has also contributed 14.5 points per game after scoring 25 points against Dallas.
Atlanta’s defense has been one of the better units early this season. The Dream are allowing only 79.0 points per game while forcing 12.0 turnovers per contest. Opponents are shooting only 43.5 % from the field against Atlanta, and the Dream continue controlling games on the glass with a plus-12.2 rebounding margin.
Injuries: Brionna Jones, Out
Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Spread Pick
- Atlanta Dream
Atlanta has the advantage because of its stronger defense and rebounding entering this matchup. The Dream have already held three opponents below 83 points, while Phoenix continues allowing high shooting percentages and open perimeter looks. Atlanta’s ability to control the boards through Reese and limit second-chance opportunities should help the Dream secure another home victory.
Phoenix Mercury vs Atlanta Dream Over/Under Pick
- Over
This matchup will cash over because Phoenix continues playing at a fast offensive pace despite the defensive struggles. The Mercury are averaging 88.5 points per game and have allowed at least 90 points in three of the last four contests. Atlanta has also scored at least 84 points in three straight games, creating strong potential for another high-scoring matchup.
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