Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks and Prediction for Saturday, September 6, 2025
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On Saturday, the Phoenix Mercury (27-14, 4th) play on the road against the Connecticut Sun (10-31, 12th). Phoenix is 27-14 and in a three-way tie with Las Vegas and Atlanta for 2nd place, with just four games remaining. Phoenix defeated the Washington Mystics 75-69 on Thursday night. The Mercury have won six straight and eight of the last nine. Phoenix has clinched a postseason berth. The Connecticut Sun are 10-31 and in 12th place. The Sun lost to Chicago 88-64 on Wednesday. Connecticut has lost three straight and four of the last five. The Sun has been eliminated from postseason contention. Phoenix will play without Julia Ayrault and Helena Pueyo. Connecticut will play without Bria Hartley, while Aneesah Morrow and Olivia Nelson-Ododa are questionable. Make sure to read this in-depth Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun prediction. Fast breaks, big wins! See why our NBA picks for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun prediction stand above the rest.
Phoenix is solid on offense and tough to beat on defense
The Phoenix Mercury score an average of 83.2 points per game, which is sixth, and allow an average of 79.6 points per game, which is 4th. The Mercury shoots 43.4% overall and 33.8% from 3-point territory, which are 9th and 7th, respectively. Phoenix’s defense holds opponents to 42.5% shooting overall and 32.3% shooting from 3-point territory, which are both third.
Phoenix's top two scorers are Satou Sabally, who averages 16.5 points per game, and Kahleah Copper, who averages 16.0 points per game. Phoenix has two other players who average double figures in scoring. Alyssa Thomas leads the Mercury in rebounding and assists, averaging 8.9 boards and 9.2 assists per game. Thomas is also the leader in steals at 1.6 per game, and Natasha Mack is the rim protector, averaging 1.6 blocked shots per game. 
Connecticut is weak at both ends of the court
The Connecticut Sun are 13th or last in scoring, averaging 76.0 points per game, and 11th in points allowed, at 86.0 points per game. Connecticut shoots 41.4% overall and 30.5% from 3-point territory, which are 12th and 13th, respectively. Connecticut's defense allows opponents to shoot 46.5% overall and 35.0% from 3-point territory, which are 13th and 10th, respectively.
The top two scorers for Connecticut are Tina Charles, who averages 16.4 points per game, and Marina Mabrey, who averages 14.1 points per game. Connecticut has one other player who averages double figures in scoring. Mabrey is the leader in assists, averaging 4.0 dishes per game. Aneesah Morrow is the leading rebounder, averaging 6.4 boards per game, while Olivia Nelson-Ododa is the rim protector, averaging 1.2 blocked shots per game. Saniya Rivers is the leader in steals at 1.5 per game.
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
- Phoenix Mercury (5 units)
The Phoenix Mercury are battling for second place in the WNBA with Las Vegas and Atlanta, while Connecticut has been eliminated from postseason contention. Therefore, Phoenix has far more incentive to win this game than Connecticut. Phoenix has won each of its last six straight up and is 3-3 ATS over that span, while Connecticut is 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS in its last six. Phoenix is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in two games head-to-head versus Connecticut, with the most recent an 82-66 victory and cover versus the Sun on August 5. Phoenix is holding opponents to the third-lowest field goal shooting and three-point shooting percentages, which plays to the weakness of Connecticut, as the Sun rank 12th, next to last, and 13th, or last, in field goal shooting and three-point shooting. Connecticut's defense is nearly as bad as its offense, ranked 11th in points allowed, 13th in field goal shooting percentage allowed, and 10th in 3-point shooting percentage.
| # | Handicapper | Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nick Parsons | +2,504.00 |
| 2 |  Mark Zinno | +1,729.00 |
| 3 |  Rob Vinciletti | +1,001.00 |
| 4 |  Mike Lundin | +572.00 |
| 5 |  Stephen Nover | +258.00 |
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun
- Under (4 units)
The Phoenix Mercury have become a very tough defensive team, ranked 4th in points allowed and third in field goal shooting percentage allowed. At the same time, Connecticut is last in scoring, next to last in field goal shooting, and last in three-point shooting. The total has finished under in each of Phoenix's last seven games.
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