Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday August 7 2026

Today’s Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun picks for Friday, August 7, 2026, come from Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Connecticut. Phoenix is trying to stabilize after a busy trade deadline and a 96-82 loss in Atlanta, while Connecticut returns home after an 83-63 defeat in Dallas.

Phoenix remains favored by 6.5 points, with the total holding at 174.5 from the morning market capture. Bettors reviewing Friday’s WNBA picks should account for Connecticut’s stronger home ATS split, Phoenix’s new Kelsey Plum dimension and the available WNBA player props before the 7:30 PM EDT tipoff on ION.

Best Available Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun

• Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury -250 | Connecticut Sun +220
• Spread: Phoenix Mercury -6.5 (-108) | Connecticut Sun +6.5 (-105)
• Total: Over 174.5 (-102) | Under 174.5 (-105)

Game Info

• Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM EDT
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Connecticut
• TV: ION
• Key Availability: Phoenix added Kelsey Plum at the trade deadline and has already worked her into the rotation. Connecticut recently traded Aneesah Morrow to Toronto, changing the frontcourt rotation entering the stretch run.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Preview

Phoenix enters at 12-20 straight up after splitting its first two games with Plum. The Mercury beat Chicago 106-101 in Plum’s debut before losing 96-82 at Atlanta, showing both the offensive upside of the new rotation and the defensive problems that have followed Phoenix throughout the season.

Plum immediately adds another high-level creator beside Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas. She scored 20 points in 21 minutes in her first Mercury appearance, giving Phoenix another guard who can stretch defenses beyond the three-point line and create late in the shot clock.

Thomas remains the organizer who connects the roster. Her passing from the top of the floor can create easy finishes for cutters, while Copper supplies downhill scoring and transition pressure. Phoenix now has three players capable of controlling a possession without needing the offense to manufacture a perfect first action.

Connecticut is 7-23 straight up and has lost seven of its last 10 games. The Sun were beaten 83-63 by Dallas on Sunday after their offense disappeared in the second half, continuing the inconsistency that has made it difficult to trust Connecticut to win outright.

Diamond Miller was the most productive Connecticut scorer in that loss, finishing with 22 points. Leïla Lacan remains the most important perimeter creator in the current rotation, while Brittney Griner gives the Sun an interior target who can force Phoenix to defend the paint rather than loading completely toward the guards.

The Sun are 14-16 ATS overall, nearly even with Phoenix despite the large difference in straight-up records. More importantly, Connecticut is 8-6 ATS at home. Phoenix is only 8-8 ATS on the road, so the venue split is the strongest reason to take the points.

The first game reached 179 points, while the rematch finished at only 135. That makes the current 174.5 total difficult to attack. Phoenix’s offense has changed with Plum, but Connecticut has also lost Morrow’s rebounding and second-chance production.

Matchup Breakdown

Phoenix should use Plum and Copper to stretch Connecticut horizontally before allowing Thomas to attack the middle. If the Sun switch aggressively, Thomas can punish smaller defenders in the paint. If they stay home, Phoenix can create clean perimeter looks through drive-and-kick possessions.

Connecticut needs Lacan to control tempo and Griner to create efficient interior touches. The Sun cannot afford another stretch like the third quarter against Dallas, when the offense stalled and the game quickly moved out of reach.

The WNBA betting trends do not create a large full-season edge on the spread. Phoenix is 14-17 ATS, while Connecticut is 14-16. The stronger difference is venue-based, with the Sun at 8-6 ATS at home compared with Phoenix at 8-8 on the road.

The morning market and current board are both dealing Phoenix -6.5 and 174.5, so there has not been a meaningful spread or total move. The price has remained stable despite the majority of the early consensus showing on Connecticut.

Game Thesis: Phoenix should win behind its deeper collection of creators, but Connecticut’s 8-6 home ATS record and the lack of a meaningful season-long spread difference make 6.5 points valuable. The total is too volatile after the first two meetings finished at 179 and 135. Connecticut +6.5 is the preferred wager, with Phoenix projected to win 88-84.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Best Bet - Spread: Connecticut Sun +6.5 (-105)

Connecticut’s overall record is poor, but the Sun have covered eight of 14 home games. Phoenix is only 8-8 ATS on the road and has failed to create a strong season-long betting advantage despite the talent difference.

The Sun also already own an outright victory over Phoenix this season. The Mercury answered in the rematch, but only by nine points in a low-scoring game.

Phoenix should have the better late-game offense with Plum, Copper and Thomas, yet Connecticut only needs to stay within two possessions. That makes +6.5 the cleaner position at the current price.

The spread remains playable at +6 or better. It becomes less attractive below +5.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Moneyline Pick: No Bet

Phoenix is the more likely winner, but -250 is far too expensive for a 12-20 team that has already lost to Connecticut this season.

Connecticut’s +220 price offers upside, but the Sun have won only seven games. The spread provides a safer way to use the home-court and ATS advantages.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Spread Pick: Connecticut Sun +6.5 (-105)

Connecticut is 8-6 ATS at home and receives 6.5 points against a Phoenix team that is 8-8 ATS away. The full-season records are close enough that the venue split becomes decisive.

The Sun do not need to win. They only need Lacan and the frontcourt to prevent Phoenix from producing another extended scoring run.

Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun Total Pick: No Bet

Connecticut is 17-13 to the over and Phoenix is 16-15, but the two meetings produced totals of 179 and 135. That range is too wide to justify forcing a side of 174.5.

A projected 172 combined points leans under, but the spread carries substantially stronger support.

Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 88, Connecticut Sun 84