Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Saturday September 19 2026

Today's Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings picks for Saturday, September 19, 2026, come from College Park Center in Arlington, Texas. Dallas returns to the floor after a convincing 97-77 win over Los Angeles and carries a five-game winning streak into the weekend, while Phoenix tries to build on Thursday's 94-91 road victory over Portland.

Dallas is favored by 8.5 points, with the total available between 172.5 and 173.5. Bettors reviewing Saturday's WNBA picks have to account for Phoenix playing without two of its highest-usage scorers and a Wings team that has increasingly won through defense. The available WNBA player props should also reflect Kahleah Copper's absence before the 1:00 PM EDT tipoff.

Best Available Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings

• Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury +290 | Dallas Wings -325
• Spread: Phoenix Mercury +8.5 | Dallas Wings -8.5
• Total: 172.5 to 173.5

Game Info

• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM EDT
• Location: College Park Center, Arlington, Texas
• TV: CBS, Paramount+
• Key Availability: Phoenix is without Kahleah Copper and Kelsey Plum. Dallas remains without Alanna Smith and Azzi Fudd.

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Preview

Dallas enters at 25-16 after handling Los Angeles 97-77 on Thursday. The Wings have won five straight and six consecutive home games, putting them in position to continue climbing the middle of the playoff bracket during the final week.

Paige Bueckers remains the engine. She returned from the FIBA Women's World Cup after dealing with a patellar-tendinitis flare-up late in the tournament and looked ready to resume a normal role against Los Angeles. Dallas needs her combination of scoring and playmaking even more with Fudd unavailable for the rest of the season.

Jessica Shepard gives the Wings a second organizing hub. Her rebounding is especially important against Phoenix because the Mercury can be dangerous when Alyssa Thomas gets stops, pushes the ball and attacks before the defense is set.

Dallas has also become much more dependable defensively. The Wings have stayed Under in 24 of 41 games and have repeatedly controlled weaker opponents by limiting easy transition chances and forcing them into half-court offense.

That style has shown up during the recent surge. Dallas held Seattle to 70, Portland to 78 and Los Angeles to 77 in three of its recent wins. The Wings do not need every game to become a shootout because Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale can create efficient offense late in the clock.

Phoenix enters at 15-26 after beating Portland 94-91. The Mercury played well without Copper, getting 18 points from Thomas and useful secondary scoring from Sami Whitcomb, Lexi Held and Noemie Brochant.

The concern is whether that production can carry into a matchup with a better defensive opponent.

Copper is out after missing Thursday's game with an ankle injury. Plum is already out for the season. Removing both guards leaves Phoenix without the two players most capable of creating a high-volume perimeter scoring night.

Thomas can still control possessions through passing, post touches and transition play. She remains one of the league's best all-around initiators, but Dallas can defend her differently when it does not have to devote the same resources to Copper.

Phoenix is 21-20 O/U this season. That overall profile is close to neutral, but the current lineup is more important than the season-long split.

The Mercury scored 94 against Portland because the Fire allowed them to generate efficient touches in several different areas. Dallas is a tougher matchup around the basket and is better equipped to stay attached to shooters.

The first meeting offers another useful reference point. Dallas beat Phoenix 85-70 on June 11, holding the Mercury to 70 points and winning by 15.

Bueckers scored 31 in that game and Dallas controlled the matchup without requiring a huge total. Saturday's handicap points toward a similar structure even if Phoenix improves on that offensive performance.

The spread is currently centered on Dallas -8.5. That is a substantial number, but the market is asking the Wings to cover roughly the same type of margin they have produced during their current home winning streak.

The total is more interesting. Most books are dealing 172.5, while 173.5 is available in parts of the market. That extra point matters because Dallas has one of the strongest Under profiles on the board.

The WNBA betting trends support that direction. Dallas is 17-24 O/U, and five of its last six completed games have stayed below the closing total.

Phoenix has been more balanced, but the absence of Copper and Plum lowers the Mercury's offensive ceiling. Dallas can still reach the high 80s or low 90s without forcing the game beyond 173.

Another factor is pace. Phoenix is at its best when Thomas can rebound and immediately initiate offense. Dallas should make a point of getting back in transition and turning the game into longer possessions.

That also helps the Wings protect against Phoenix's biggest strength. When the Mercury have to score against a set defense, Thomas becomes easier to load toward and secondary creators have to beat closeouts consistently.

Dallas can attack Phoenix through Bueckers and Shepard without playing at maximum speed. The Wings should have advantages in shot quality and rebounding, giving them a path to control the game without creating an extreme possession count.

The injury situation makes the total more attractive than the side. Dallas is clearly the more reliable team, but laying 8.5 leaves exposure to a late Phoenix run. The Under can still cash even if the Mercury stay competitive.

Game Thesis: Dallas should have the stronger offense and the more reliable defense, but the cleanest edge is the total. Phoenix is without Copper and Plum, Dallas has stayed Under in 24 of 41 games, and the Wings have held several recent opponents in the 70s. Under 173.5 is the preferred wager.

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings Best Bet - Total: Under 173.5

Dallas has enough offense to win comfortably, but its recent formula has not required an extreme scoring environment.

The Wings have held five of their last six opponents below the number needed to create an easy Over, and Phoenix now arrives without two of its primary perimeter scorers.

Thomas can still create an efficient night for the Mercury, but Dallas should be able to shade additional help toward her and force Phoenix's secondary options to make contested shots.

The best available 173.5 provides more protection than the common 172.5. A Dallas score in the upper 80s paired with Phoenix in the upper 70s or low 80s keeps the game below the number.

Under 173.5 is the strongest position.

Prediction: Dallas Wings 89, Phoenix Mercury 79