Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Wednesday June 24 2026
Use Code WWWC An exciting WNBA matchup takes center stage this Wednesday evening as the Indiana Fever host the Phoenix Mercury in the second game of a two-game set at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. This preview breaks down the latest betting lines, key player matchups, and the best WNBA player props for tonight's action.
Best Available Odds
Best Moneyline Odds: Phoenix Mercury (+270 at bet365 or William Hill) / Indiana Fever (-330 at Betway)
Best Spread Odds: Phoenix Mercury +8.5 (-115 at bet365) / Indiana Fever -8.5 (+100 at Betway)
Best Total Odds: Over 175.5 (-110 at bet365) / Under 175.5 (-110 at bet365)
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Game Info
Date: Wednesday, June 24, 2026
Time: 7:30 PM EDT
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
TV: USA Network
Phoenix Mercury vs Indiana Fever Preview
The Indiana Fever enter Wednesday at 10-7 after defeating Phoenix 86-77 in the first meeting of this two-game set Monday night. Indiana overcame a double-digit first-quarter deficit and controlled the game after halftime to secure its seventh home victory of the season.
The Fever are now 7-3 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Their combination of perimeter creation, transition offense, interior scoring, and defensive rebounding has made them much more dependable at home than the original draft suggested.
Caitlin Clark led Monday's comeback with 24 points and nine assists. She scored 15 points during the second quarter and repeatedly created open shots once Indiana began attacking Phoenix before its defense could become organized.
Clark is listed as probable with a back issue for Wednesday's rematch. She played 34 minutes Monday and is expected to remain in the lineup unless her status changes closer to tipoff.
The guard enters averaging approximately 21.3 points and 8.1 assists. She has also recorded at least 20 points and five assists in six consecutive games, establishing a new WNBA record.
Clark's ability to manipulate pick-and-roll coverage creates opportunities throughout Indiana's lineup. Phoenix must decide whether to protect the paint against her drives, stay attached to shooters, or send additional defenders toward the ball.
Kelsey Mitchell scored 22 points Monday while hitting three three-pointers. She gives Indiana another high-level shot creator who can punish Phoenix whenever its defense places too much attention on Clark.
Mitchell enters averaging 20.9 points and 2.5 assists. Her ability to attack in transition, relocate behind the three-point line, and create late-clock shots makes Indiana difficult to contain for a complete 40 minutes.
Aliyah Boston provides the interior foundation. She is averaging approximately 17.2 points and 8.6 rebounds while producing one of the strongest offensive seasons of her career.
Boston's screening creates separation for Clark and Mitchell, while her touch around the basket forces opposing centers to remain connected to her instead of helping aggressively against Indiana's guards.
Lexie Hull, Sophie Cunningham, Myisha Hines-Allen, Raven Johnson, and the remainder of Indiana's rotation give the Fever additional shooting, rebounding, and defensive flexibility.
Cunningham and Hines-Allen were involved in the physical fourth-quarter confrontation Monday. Hines-Allen was ejected after receiving her second technical foul, but she remains available for the rematch.
Clark received her fifth technical foul of the season during the confrontation. She is three technicals away from an automatic one-game suspension, but the league's decision not to rescind Monday's technical has no effect on her availability Wednesday.
The Fever average approximately 92.1 points per game while allowing 88.9. Their offensive ceiling is among the highest in the league, particularly when Clark and Mitchell are both producing efficiently.
Indiana's defense has also performed better than its raw points-allowed average suggests. The Fever play at one of the league's faster paces, creating more possessions and naturally increasing both teams' scoring totals.
The defensive improvement has been built around rebounding, Boston's interior presence, and more organized help coverage. Indiana held Phoenix to 77 points Monday despite allowing the Mercury to establish an early lead.
The Phoenix Mercury enter Wednesday at 5-13 and sit seventh in the Western Conference. Phoenix has lost six of its last seven games and continues to struggle with consistency on both ends of the court.
The Mercury are 3-7 on the road. Their offense has averaged only 79.4 points across its last 10 games and 82.2 points over the full season.
Phoenix opened Monday's game with excellent energy. The Mercury moved the ball, forced Indiana turnovers, and created a double-digit first-quarter advantage before the Fever changed the pace and defensive coverage.
The problem was sustaining that level. Phoenix produced only 77 points and struggled to generate efficient half-court offense once Indiana prevented Alyssa Thomas from consistently reaching the middle of the floor.
Thomas remains the central figure in the Mercury offense. She enters averaging approximately 14.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 1.5 steals.
Her scoring numbers do not fully capture her influence. Thomas initiates the offense, pushes the ball after rebounds, creates open shots for teammates, and frequently defends the opposing team's most physical frontcourt player.
Thomas finished Monday with 19 points, nine assists, and five rebounds. She reached the paint repeatedly and created scoring opportunities for Kahleah Copper and DeWanna Bonner.
Copper scored 20 points while making two three-pointers. She remains Phoenix's leading scorer at approximately 19.2 points per game.
Her athleticism gives Phoenix its clearest path to scoring against Indiana. Copper can attack before the defense is set, finish through contact, and create pull-up shots when the Mercury's initial action breaks down.
Bonner adds veteran shooting and positional length. She has returned to Phoenix after briefly playing for Indiana during the 2025 season and remains capable of scoring against smaller defenders.
Thomas, Copper, and Bonner also bring considerable playoff experience. Phoenix needs that group to control the game's emotional temperature after Monday's confrontation and avoid giving Indiana additional free throws or transition opportunities.
Natasha Mack is questionable with a foot injury. Her availability is important because she leads Phoenix with approximately 8.3 rebounds per game and provides the team's strongest interior defensive presence.
Mack's potential absence would create a difficult matchup against Boston. Phoenix would need more frontcourt minutes from Monique Billings and other supporting players while asking Thomas to handle additional defensive rebounding responsibility.
Monique Akoa Makani is out with a hamstring injury, while Sami Whitcomb remains unavailable because of a knee issue. Those absences reduce the Mercury's guard depth and perimeter shooting.
Phoenix allows approximately 85.9 points per game while opponents shoot 45.5% from the field. The Mercury rank near the middle of the league defensively despite their poor overall record.
The larger problem has been offensive inconsistency. Phoenix has scored 77 points or fewer in seven of its last 10 games.
The Mercury did produce a 93-73 win over Seattle before Monday's loss. That performance demonstrated their ceiling when Copper is efficient and Thomas controls the game without committing excessive turnovers.
Replicating that production against Indiana will require a better second half. Phoenix scored only 34 points after halftime Monday and struggled to create open perimeter attempts once the Fever began switching more actions.
Recent Matchup and Head-to-Head Analysis
Monday's 86-77 Indiana victory provides more useful evidence than the multi-season averages in the original draft.
The original article referred to a 2026-2027 campaign and a 2025-2026 season. The WNBA does not use that format. The current campaign is the 2026 season, while last year's meetings occurred during the 2025 season.
Indiana won Monday despite a poor opening quarter. The Fever were able to increase their pace, generate turnovers, and place Clark and Mitchell in more favourable matchups as the game progressed.
Clark recorded 24 points and nine assists. Mitchell added 22 points, giving Indiana 46 from its starting backcourt.
Boston added interior production and helped Indiana control the defensive glass. The Fever limited Phoenix's second-chance opportunities during the comeback.
Thomas finished with 19 points and nine assists for Phoenix. Copper added 20, but the Mercury did not receive enough scoring from the remainder of the rotation.
The rematch creates an immediate adjustment game. Phoenix can attempt to slow Indiana's transition offense, reduce live-ball turnovers, and keep Thomas involved as a scorer rather than allowing the Fever to turn her exclusively into a passer.
Indiana can improve by avoiding another slow start. The Fever committed several early turnovers and allowed Phoenix to establish confidence before Clark changed the game during the second quarter.
The physical confrontation during the fourth quarter adds another dimension. Both teams must avoid technical fouls and unnecessary stoppages that could affect rotations or provide free points.
Indiana enters with the stronger overall form, the better home record, and the deeper offensive lineup. Phoenix's veteran core makes the Mercury capable of remaining competitive, but Monday showed how difficult it is for the visitors to match Indiana's scoring over four quarters.
Game Thesis: Indiana should win the rematch behind its superior backcourt, stronger home performance, and greater offensive depth. Phoenix can create another competitive opening through Thomas and Copper, but the Mercury have not produced enough consistent scoring to trust them over 40 minutes. The Fever are positioned to pull away during the second half and cover the 8.5-point spread. The total has climbed above the 163 points produced Monday, making Under 175.5 the preferable scoring position.
Moneyline Pick: Indiana Fever (-330)
Indiana is the clear moneyline selection, although the -330 price offers limited standalone value.
The Fever are 10-7 overall and 7-3 at home. Phoenix is 5-13 overall and 3-7 on the road.
That difference is supported by the available lineups. Indiana has three high-level offensive options through Clark, Mitchell, and Boston, while Phoenix depends heavily on Thomas and Copper creating nearly every half-court advantage.
Clark's status must still be monitored because she is listed as probable with a back issue. Her 34-minute workload Monday and continued presence in the player-prop market suggest she is expected to play.
Indiana demonstrated that it can overcome adversity in the first meeting. The Fever trailed by double digits but did not need an unusually poor Phoenix shooting performance to complete the comeback.
They changed the game by increasing defensive pressure, controlling the rebounds, and generating efficient possessions for Clark and Mitchell.
Phoenix has a path to an upset if Thomas controls the tempo and Copper produces another efficient scoring game. The Mercury also need better three-point shooting from Bonner and the supporting rotation.
Mack's questionable status complicates that path. If Phoenix loses its leading rebounder, Indiana should create additional opportunities around the basket and on the offensive glass.
The moneyline price implies that Indiana wins the game more than three-quarters of the time. That is reasonable given the records, home-road splits, and Monday's result.
The spread offers a better potential return, but Indiana remains the appropriate outright winner.
⭐ Best Bet - Spread Pick: Indiana Fever -8.5 (+100)
Indiana -8.5 is the strongest game wager. The Fever covered this number Monday by winning 86-77 despite producing one of their poorest opening quarters of the season.
That performance suggests the margin could increase if Indiana begins with better ball security and defensive focus.
The Fever possess a major advantage in backcourt scoring. Clark and Mitchell combined for 46 points Monday and should again receive heavy minutes in a nationally televised home game.
Clark has recorded at least 20 points and five assists in six consecutive games. Phoenix must either allow her to score against single coverage or send help and create open opportunities for Mitchell, Boston, Hull, and Cunningham.
Indiana's frontcourt advantage also becomes more significant if Mack is unavailable or limited. Boston can score through post touches, pick-and-roll finishes, offensive rebounds, and free throws.
Phoenix has lost six of its last seven and has been outscored by double digits in several recent games. The Mercury's offense regularly stalls whenever Thomas is forced away from the centre of the floor.
Thomas and Copper can keep Phoenix competitive during the first half, but Indiana has more reliable scoring options once fatigue and bench minutes become factors.
The greatest risk is the rematch dynamic. Phoenix has immediate film from Monday and can make targeted adjustments without facing another opponent between games.
The Mercury can also remain inside the number if Thomas continues clearing nine assists and Copper scores near 20 points.
Indiana still has the more sustainable game plan. The Fever can score in transition, through guard isolation, from pick-and-roll actions, and through Boston inside.
The +100 price is preferable to laying substantial money on the Indiana moneyline. A projected final around 91-81 gives the Fever the required double-digit margin.
Total Pick: Under 175.5 (-110)
Under 175.5 is preferable to the original Over recommendation. Monday's first meeting produced 163 total points, finishing well below Wednesday's number.
Phoenix averages 82.2 points per game and has been held to 77 or fewer in seven of its last 10 contests.
The Mercury's recent scoring problems are not entirely caused by poor shooting variance. The offense has limited traditional point-guard depth and places an enormous creation burden on Thomas.
Indiana successfully reduced Phoenix's efficiency after the opening quarter Monday. The Mercury scored only 34 points during the second half.
The Fever can repeat that defensive approach by keeping Thomas out of the paint, switching selected actions, and preventing Copper from consistently attacking in transition.
Indiana's offense creates the strongest Over argument. The Fever average more than 92 points per game and can reach the 90s whenever Clark and Mitchell are efficient.
Phoenix also allows opponents to shoot 45.5% from the field. Indiana's 46% season shooting rate suggests the Fever should produce efficient scoring possessions.
The spread and total can still align. Indiana can win comfortably without the game reaching 176 points if Phoenix remains in the low 80s.
Mack's status introduces competing effects. Her absence would weaken Phoenix's defense and rebounding but could also reduce the Mercury's interior scoring and second-chance production.
The rematch may also begin at a slower pace. Phoenix has a clear incentive to reduce transition possessions after Indiana changed Monday's game by running off misses and turnovers.
A result around 91-81, 90-80, or 88-81 would support Indiana against the spread while remaining below 175.5.
The original 176.5 recommendation required both teams to approach or exceed 90 points. Phoenix's season-long offense does not support that expectation strongly enough.
Top Player Prop Picks
Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 Assists (-114) Thomas remains the most dependable creator in the Phoenix offense. She enters averaging 8.4 assists per game and has produced at least nine in six consecutive appearances.
Her assist totals during that stretch are nine, nine, 11, 12, 10, and nine. She has therefore cleared the current line in every active game since June 9.
Thomas recorded nine assists against Indiana on Monday despite the Mercury finishing with only 77 points.
That result demonstrates how central she is to almost every Phoenix scoring possession. Thomas creates assists through transition pushes, handoffs, post entries, drives, and kick-out passes.
Copper remains the primary perimeter beneficiary. Bonner, Mack, Billings, and Phoenix's supporting guards also depend on Thomas to create advantages before they receive the ball.
Indiana may again attempt to turn Thomas into a passer by protecting the paint and sending help when she attacks smaller defenders.
That strategy can limit her scoring while increasing the number of potential assist opportunities.
The primary risk is shooting efficiency. Thomas can create open attempts, but the prop requires Phoenix teammates to convert them.
Her recent volume provides enough protection against that concern. Thomas has reached nine assists even during several poor Mercury offensive performances.
Nine or more assists is the preferred Phoenix player prop in a matchup where she should again control the ball for more than 30 minutes.
Kelsey Mitchell Over 22.5 Points + Assists (-110 at DraftKings or Fanatics) Mitchell enters averaging approximately 20.9 points and 2.5 assists, giving her a season average of 23.4 combined points and assists.
She cleared the line Monday with 22 points and one assist. Her scoring volume alone placed her within one made basket of reaching the required total without an assist.
Mitchell has exceeded 22.5 points and assists in four of her last five games. She recorded combined totals of 23, 19, 27, 29, and 24 during that stretch.
Phoenix does not have enough perimeter defenders to consistently contain both Mitchell and Clark.
When the Mercury send additional attention toward Clark, Mitchell receives opportunities to attack rotating defenders or catch the ball with space behind the three-point line.
She made three triples Monday and attempted 20 shots. That volume confirms Indiana is comfortable allowing her to remain aggressive even when she is not shooting at an elite percentage.
The points and assists market also provides limited protection if Phoenix forces the ball out of Mitchell's hands. She can clear the line by producing another 20-point game with three or four assists.
Mitchell is not a high-volume distributor, but Clark's off-ball movement and Boston's interior finishing create simple assist opportunities.
A potential Indiana blowout introduces some playing-time risk. Mitchell still played more than 30 minutes Monday and regularly remains on the floor long enough to lead bench-heavy units.
The corrected -110 price is preferable to the original -118 number. A performance near 22 points and three assists would be enough to cash the Over.
Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135 at Novig) Copper enters averaging approximately 1.7 made three-pointers per game and has increased her perimeter volume during Phoenix's recent schedule.
She made two three-pointers against Indiana on Monday while attempting seven shots from beyond the arc.
Copper has made at least two triples in four of her last five active games. Her recent totals are two, two, one, six, and two.
The six-three-pointer performance against Los Angeles demonstrated her ceiling when opponents consistently help away from her on Thomas drives.
Indiana's defensive approach can again create similar opportunities. The Fever want to prevent Thomas and Copper from repeatedly finishing at the basket, which can force Phoenix to take more perimeter shots.
Copper should remain one of the Mercury's highest-volume shooters. She has attempted at least four three-pointers in each of her last six active games.
The matchup also requires Phoenix to score efficiently enough to remain competitive. That should prevent Copper from becoming passive after an early miss.
The primary concern is percentage. Copper made only two of seven attempts Monday and has shot below 30% from three in several recent games.
Volume remains more predictive for this prop than one-game efficiency. Six or seven attempts provide a reasonable path to two makes even without an exceptional shooting night.
The corrected -135 price is more expensive than the original number but remains playable because Copper's role, recent volume, and Monday performance all support another multi-three game.
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