Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Picks and Prediction for Saturday May 9 2026
Use Code WWWC Saturday afternoon WNBA action, and we have a Phoenix vs Las Vegas prediction locked and loaded for you. This should be a great matchup between a couple of teams that met in the Finals last year. The Mercury went 27-17 a year ago before falling to Las Vegas in the Finals. The Aces went 30-14 last year and have now won three WNBA titles in the last four years. Can Phoenix get revenge for last year's loss in the finals? Read on to see our Mercury vs Aces prediction.
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Is This The Year Of The Mercury?
Phoenix enters 2026 looking to finish the job they couldn’t close last season, when they went 27–17 and made a run all the way to the WNBA Finals before falling to Las Vegas. It was their 12th postseason appearance in 13 years, a testament to how consistently competitive this franchise has been, even if the championship drought has stretched since 2014. The Mercury leaned on a balanced attack in 2025, averaging 82.8 points, hitting 43.3% from the field, and knocking down nearly 9.5 threes per game. Defensively, they were solid as well, holding opponents to 80.1 points and 42.7% shooting, with veterans like Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper setting the tone on both ends. Their mix of experience, toughness, and perimeter scoring kept them in the league’s top tier all season.
This year’s roster still has that veteran backbone, but the matchup with Las Vegas is a reminder of the standard Phoenix is chasing. To compete on the road, the Mercury need Thomas’ playmaking and rebounding to anchor the offense, Copper’s scoring punch to keep pressure on the Aces’ wings, and contributions from their newer pieces to stretch the floor. Phoenix can’t afford long scoring droughts against a Vegas team that punishes mistakes, so ball security and defensive discipline are critical. If the Mercury control tempo, get efficient production from their core, and avoid letting the Aces dictate pace, they’ll give themselves a chance to show they’re still a legitimate contender in the West.
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Three Titles In Four Years
Las Vegas enters 2026 looking every bit like the league’s modern dynasty, coming off a 30–14 season and their third championship in four years. They’ve now reached at least the semifinals in seven straight seasons, a run built on star power, depth, and a system that rarely beats itself. Last year’s Aces averaged 83.6 points, shot 43.9%, and knocked down 9.1 threes per game, all while finishing top‑five in free‑throw percentage and offensive efficiency. Defensively, they were just as sharp, holding opponents to 80.7 points on 43.6% shooting, with A’ja Wilson anchoring the paint and their perimeter rotation forcing tough shots all season. Even with injuries and lineup shuffling, Las Vegas never lost its identity — disciplined, physical, and relentless.
This year’s roster is loaded again, headlined by Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd, giving the Aces as much two‑way firepower as any team in the league. Against Phoenix, the formula is familiar: control the glass, pressure the Mercury’s ballhandlers, and force them into long, contested possessions. The Aces’ depth at forward — with NaLyssa Smith, Cheyenne Parker‑Tyus, and Brianna Turner — gives them multiple defensive looks to throw at Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper, and their spacing on the other end will test Phoenix’s rotations. If Las Vegas dictates tempo and gets its usual balance from Wilson inside and its guards on the perimeter, they’re positioned to open the season looking like the defending champs they are.
Phoenix vs Las Vegas Pick
Mercury vs Aces Spread Pick
- Las Vegas -8.5 (4 Units)
Las Vegas -8.5 feels justified because the Aces are simply operating at a different level right now, and Phoenix comes in shorthanded without Makani and Whitcomb — two players who give them spacing, ball movement, and defensive versatility. Vegas already owns a massive continuity edge with A’ja Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd all healthy and in rhythm, and their depth pieces fit cleanly around that core. Phoenix can still compete, but taking two rotation guards out of an already thin backcourt puts even more pressure on Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper to create everything. Against a Vegas team that punishes every weakness and rarely lets up at home, that’s a tough ask. This is the kind of matchup where the Aces’ talent and stability tend to show early and keep building.
Mercury vs Aces Over/Under Pick
- Over 167.5 (5 Units)
The Over 167.5 makes sense because both teams have enough offensive firepower to turn this into a pace game quickly, especially with the way Vegas pushes tempo at home. The Aces averaged 83.6 points last season, shot the ball efficiently, and now bring back a core that knows how to create clean looks in transition and in the half court. Phoenix, even without Makani and Whitcomb, still has Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper — two players who can get downhill, draw fouls, and keep the scoreboard moving. These matchups also tend to open up as the game goes on, with Vegas forcing opponents to match their pace and Phoenix having the shooters to keep up. With both teams capable of hitting the mid‑80s on a normal night, this number isn’t asking for anything out of character.
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