Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces, WNBA Finals, Picks and Prediction for Sunday, October 5, 2025
Use Code WWWC The Phoenix Mercury visit the Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday to play the Las Vegas Aces in the second game of the best-of-seven WNBA Finals on ABC. Phoenix trails in the series 1-0 after losing to Las Vegas 89-86 in Game 1 on Friday. The opening game was tight throughout as both teams performed well on offense. Phoenix and Las Vegas do not have any players listed on their respective injury reports. Make sure to read this in-depth Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces prediction. Play to win! Dive into our WNBA picks for Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces prediction and slam dunk your bets.
Phoenix needs to make more stops on defense and reduce turnovers
The Phoenix Mercury are first in the WNBA during the postseason in points allowed at 75.9 points per game, but gave up 89 points in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals on Friday. Phoenix is holding opponents to 40.2% shooting overall and 27.6% shooting from 3-point territory but in Friday’s loss to the Aces, the Mercury allowed Las Vegas to shoot 45.8% overall and 33.3% from 3-point territory. Phoenix must also reduce its turnovers as the Mercury turned the ball over 14 times in Game 1 to only 7 by Las Vegas.
Phoenix is scoring an average of 80.3 points per game during the postseason but shooting just 41.1% overall and 31.4% from 3-point territory. Alyssa Thomas is the biggest reason the Mercury have reached the Finals as the forward is averaging 18.6 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.4 rebounds per game during the postseason, to lead Phoenix in each of the three categories. Satou Sabally is second in scoring at 17.9 points per game, while Kahleah Copper averages 15.0 points per game. Thomas is also leading in steals at 2.0 per game, while Natasha Mack is the rim protector, averaging 0.7 blocks per contest.
Las Vegas continues to play well offensively, but could tighten the defense
The Las Vegas Aces lead the WNBA in scoring during the postseason, averaging 87.3 points per game on 48.5% shooting overall and 39.2% shooting from three-point land. However, the Aces' defense needs to make more stops as Las Vegas is allowing 81.8 points per game, which is 5th out of eight playoff teams. The Aces give up 43.6% shooting overall and 36.7% from 3-point range. Las Vegas is being outrebounded during the postseason by over 6 rebounds per game.
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WNBA MVP A’ja Wilson leads Las Vegas in scoring (26.1 ppg), rebounding (9.1 rpg), steals (2.6 spg), and blocks (2.9 bpg), as she did during the regular season. Chelsea Gray dishes out an average of 7.2 assists per game as the Aces' top playmaker. Jackie Young scores an average of 20.3 points per game, and Gray is the third and final player for Las Vegas, averaging double figures in scoring at 10.9 points per game. Jewel Loyd, who comes off the bench for Las Vegas, is averaging less than eight points per game but came up with 18 points in Friday’s Game 1 win.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Pick
Spread Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Las Vegas Aces -3 (5 units)
The Las Vegas Aces were just too much on the offensive end for the Phoenix Mercury to stop in Game 1, despite Phoenix having the best defense during the postseason among the eight teams that have played in the playoffs. A’ja Wilson continues to show in each game why she was named the WNBA MVP, scoring over 26 points per game and grabbing more than nine rebounds per contest. At the same time, Wilson plays well on defense, leading the Aces in steals, and is the rim protector with close to three blocked shots per contest. Despite Las Vegas not having the strongest defense, the Aces forced Phoenix into 14 turnovers in Game 1 while committing just seven of their own. Las Vegas has covered the spread in four of the last six head-to-heads versus Phoenix, despite falling short in Game 1 when winning by three as the 3.5-point favorite. However, the Aces will continue to pressure Phoenix’s defense on each possession and will tighten up their defense to take away some of the perimeter shooting of the Mercury.
Over/Under Pick for Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Over 164.5 (4 units)
Although Phoenix is leading the postseason in points allowed, the first game of the WNBA Finals finished over the closing line of 163.5 points when 175 points were scored. This will be the case again in Game 2 as Las Vegas will score its share of points, as the Aces lead the WNBA in postseason scoring, and Phoenix will chase the Aces throughout the contest, adding to the overall scoring. The total has finished over in four of Phoenix's last five games. The total has also finished over in two of the last three games between these two.
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