Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction, Sunday, September 21, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s the semifinals of the WNBA playoffs and Game 1 is set for a big outing on Sunday, Sept. 21. Read our Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx prediction along with our other best WNBA Predictions! The Mercury are coming off of a three-game series win against the Liberty. Phoenix used a big win in Game 3 of the first round punch their spot in the next round. The Lynx have continually shown they are the top team in the league. They swept Golden State in the first round and they will look to continue it in this five-game series. The two teams will meet with tip-off set for 5 P.M. EST.
Minnesota held a season-series lead over the Mercury 3-1.
Phoenix fresh off big series win versus New York
Phoenix comes into the semifinals of the playoffs after a big series win versus the Liberty. The Mercury lost Game 1 in overtime to New York, but they bounced back with two straight wins to claim the series win against the Liberty.
In Game 3, the Mercury defeated New York 79-73 on Friday, Sept. 19. Satou Sabally led the team with 23 points in the win. Phoenix led for a majority of the game as they shot 36.6% from the field and 37.5% from behind the arc. They dominated in the rebounding game as they grabbed 49 boards to New York’s 33 rebounds.
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In the regular season, Sabally led the team with 16.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas was great in the regular season, grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
Phoenix was averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best in the regular season. They were the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury were also the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
On defense, the Mercury were allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth in the regular season. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked regular-season defense, giving up 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
Phoenix did not covered the spread in two of the three games in the first round of the playoffs. They covered as a 3.5 point favorite and as a 5-point underdog against the Liberty. The under hit in all three games in the opening round.
Phoenix was 21-22-1 against the spread in the regular season. They are 9-12-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Mercury are 2-2 against the spread versus the Lynx in the regular season. They were also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The under was 3-0 during the four matchups versus the Lynx. The under is 11-6-2 during Phoenix road games.
There are no injuries listed for the Mercury in this game.
Minnesota ready to defend home court
Minnesota is the No. 1 seed in the WNBA playoffs. They swept Golden State in the first round easily as they continually showed why they were the best team in the regular season. In Game 1, the Lynx won 101-72 at home on Sunday, Sept. 14.
In their last game, the Lynx defeated the Valkyries 75-74 on Wednesday, Sept 17. Courtney Williams nailed a shot in the final 30 seconds to seal the win. The Lynx shot 46% from the field and 28% from behind the arc. Golden State led by as much as 17 points as the Lynx were able to erase that lead and swept the series. Napheesa Collier led the team with 24 points on 10-for-16 shooting.
Napheesa Collier led the Lynx with 22 points per game in the regular season. Jessica Shepard grabbed a team-high seven rebounds while Courtney Williams passed for a team-leading 5.5 assists per game.
In the regular season, the Lynx averaged 82.3 points per game which ranked second best. They were the top shooting team in the league making 47.2% from the field and 37.8% from behind the 3-point line.
On defense, Minnesota allowed 73.3 points per game ranking them third best in the regular season. They are allowing 42.3% from the field which ranked second best. The Lynx were the eighth-ranked 3-point defensive team, giving up 33.1% from behind the arc.
In the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota covered as a 13.5 point favorite in Game 1. They failed to cover in Game 2 as a 10.5-point favorite. The total is 1-1 through their first few games in the first round, too.
The Lynx finished the regular season with 26-19-1 against the spread record. Minnesota held a 14-7-1 against the spread record at home during the regular season. The total was 22-22-2 when Minnesota has played.
DiJonai Carrington is out for the rest of the postseason with a foot sprain.
Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks
Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
- Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (5 units)
Minnesota is the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and they have dominated every team on the schedule this season. The Lynx were 3-1 against the Mercury in the regulars season. Minnesota showcased its strength in offensive efficiency and defensive skills in the first round. With three days' rest, they will be ready to go against a Mercury team that had an extremely difficult first-round matchup against the Liberty. New York took Phoenix to OT in Game 1 and the series went Phoenix’s way thanks to close wins. The mental strength it took Phoenix to win the series will have them behind from the beginning against the top team in the sport in Minnesota. The Lynx were 14-7-1 against the spread during home games this season.
Take Minnesota to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
- Under 158.5 (5 units)
The under hit in all three of Phoenix’s first round games lsat week. Defense played a major role in this mark hitting and it will in this series, too. The Mercury play as a fast team as they rank third in pace, but they have the league’s fifth-best defensive efficiency. The Lynx have the best defensive efficiency and they rank as the fourth slowest team. This series is going to be a grind offensively with defense being the star of the show.
Take the under on Sunday.
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