Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Picks and Prediction, Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Use Code WWWC The WNBA Semifinals continue with Game 2 on Tuesday, Sept. 23. Read our Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx prediction along with the other best WNBA Predictions! The Lynx lead the series 1-0 after their come-from-behind victory, where their defense shut down Phoenix in the second half. Minnesota has now won four of the five games against Phoenix during the regular season and the playoffs. Minnesota also holds a 22-2 overall record at hom,e which includes postseason games. The tip-off time in downtown Minneapolis is set for 7:30 P.M. EST.
Phoenix’s halftime lead slips in Game 1
Phoenix is the No. 4 seed and they are down 1-0 in the WNBA Semifinals. The Mercury struggled in their Game 1 loss to the Lynx, falling 82-69 on Sunday, Sept. 21. Phoenix led by 7 points at halftime, but the Lynx’s defense shut them down. Phoenix scored just 22 second-half points. The Mercury struggled from deep, shooting 3-for-23 from behind the arc. Kahleah Cooper led the team with 22 points on 10-for-23 from the field.
In the regular season, Satou Sabally led the team with 16.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas was great in the regular season, grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
Phoenix was averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best in the regular season. They were the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury were also the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
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On defense, the Mercury were allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth in the regular season. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked regular-season defense, giving up 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
The Mercury failed to convert the spread in Game 1 of the semifinals. They were 9.5-point underdogs and lost by 13. The under also hit with it set at 159.5.
Phoenix did not cover the spread in two of the three games in the first round of the playoffs. They covered as a 3.5-point favorite and as a 5-point underdog against the Liberty. The under hit in all three games in the opening round.
Phoenix was 21-22-1 against the spread in the regular season. They are 9-12-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Mercury are 2-2 against the spread versus the Lynx in the regular season. They were also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The under was 3-0 during the four matchups versus the Lynx. The under is 11-6-2 during Phoenix road games.
There are no injuries listed for the Mercury in this game.
Minnesota comes from behind to secure Game 1 victory
The Lynx are the No. 1 seed and they hold a 1-0 lead over Phoenix in the WNBA Semifinals. In their last game, Minnesota won 82-69 on Sunday, Sept. 21. Minnesota trailed by 7 points at halftime as their defense needed a spark. They received especially in the fourth quarter. The game was tied entering the final frame and Minnesota went on a 14-2 run to close out the game in the final five minutes to seal the win. The Lynx shot 44.2% from the field and 31% from deep. Courtney Williams led the team with 23 points on 11-for-19 shooting.
Napheesa Collier led the Lynx with 22 points per game in the regular season. Jessica Shepard grabbed a team-high seven rebounds while Courtney Williams passed for a team-leading 5.5 assists per game.
In the regular season, the Lynx averaged 82.3 points per game which ranked second best. They were the top shooting team in the league, making 47.2% from the field and 37.8% from behind the 3-point line.
On defense, Minnesota allowed 73.3 points per game, ranking them third best in the regular season. They are allowing 42.3% from the field which ranked second best. The Lynx were the eighth-ranked 3-point defensive team, giving up 33.1% from behind the arc.
The Lynx covered the spread as a 9.5-point favorite in Game 1 against Phoenix. The under also hit with the total set at 159.5.
In the first round of the playoffs, Minnesota covered as a 13.5-point favorite in Game 1. They failed to cover in Game 2 as a 10.5-point favorite. The total is 1-1 through their first few games in the first round, too.
The Lynx finished the regular season with a 26-19-1 against the spread. Minnesota held a 14-7-1 against the spread at home during the regular season. The total was 22-22-2 when Minnesota has played.
DiJonai Carrington is out for the rest of the postseason with a foot sprain.
Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks
Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
- Minnesota Lynx -7 (5 units)
Phoenix was looking sharp in the first half. Everything was going their way as they dominated the interior and they were scoring at will around the basket. At halftime, Minnesota changed the way that it defended. They focused on doubles teams and throwing different players when the Mercury reached the lane. It worked, and they went on to dominate the final two quarters. Minnesota can roll with that defense from the beginning and force Phoenix to shoot 3-pointers and contested jump shots. Minnesota will be in for another easy win behind their home crowd. Defense wins championships and the Lynx’s defense is one of the best in the league, especially when they have the capabilities to adjust on the fly.
Take the Lynx to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
- Under 160 (5 units)
The under continues to hit in a majority of WNBA playoff games. The under has hit in all four playoff games for the Mercury, too. Their defense has been fantastic while the Lynx’s defense continues to be top-tier. This will be a defense-first matchup just like it was in Game 1. Expect long possessions and contested shots throughout the game, forcing a low scoring evening.
Take the under on Tuesday.
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