Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Monday July 13 2026
Use Code WWWC The Phoenix Mercury visit the Minnesota Lynx on Monday night trying to recover from one of the most lopsided defeats in franchise history. Phoenix fell to 8-16 after a 106-58 loss to Las Vegas, while Minnesota improved to 17-6 with a 90-85 victory over New York.
Minnesota has already defeated Phoenix twice this season and enters with decisive advantages in recent form, depth, and defensive execution. Bettors evaluating the individual matchups can also review the latest WNBA player props before the 9:00 PM EDT tipoff.
Best Available Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
- Moneyline: Phoenix Mercury +568 | Minnesota Lynx -714
- Spread: Phoenix Mercury +13.5 (-123) | Minnesota Lynx -13.5 (-107)
- Total: Over 169.5 (-102) | Under 169.5 (-104)
Odds and Line Movement
Minnesota opened as approximately a 10.5-point favorite before the spread moved through -12.5 and reached -13.5 at several sportsbooks. The adjustment reflects Phoenix's 48-point loss to Las Vegas, Minnesota's 17-6 record, and the Lynx's two victories over the Mercury this season.
The total has moved in the opposite direction. An opening number of 170.5 has fallen to 169.5 despite Minnesota scoring 90 points against New York and producing 111 points during its most recent meeting with Phoenix.
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The moneyline has also become more expensive. Minnesota is available around -714 after opening closer to -650 at some sportsbooks, while Phoenix has moved above +550. The Lynx are clearly the more likely winner, but the current price offers limited standalone value.
Minnesota has produced one of the league's strongest combined records. The Lynx are 17-6 straight up and 13-8 against the spread, while Phoenix is 8-16 straight up and 8-15 against the number.
The current WNBA betting trends also support a higher-scoring Minnesota game. The Lynx have played 13 of 22 graded totals over, while Phoenix has produced 11 overs and 12 unders.
Game Info
- Date: Monday, July 13, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM EDT
- Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
- TV: Peacock, NBCSN, and Victory+
Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Preview
Phoenix enters after losing 106-58 to Las Vegas on Saturday. The 48-point margin matched one of the largest defeats in WNBA history and extended the Mercury's losing streak to three games.
The Mercury were overwhelmed from the opening quarter and never established a sustainable offensive rhythm. Las Vegas controlled the paint, forced difficult perimeter attempts, and repeatedly converted defensive stops into transition opportunities.
Kahleah Copper remains Phoenix's leading scorer at approximately 19.5 points per game. She supplies the Mercury with their best source of perimeter shot creation, but opponents have increasingly concentrated their strongest wing defender on her while challenging Phoenix's other players to generate offense.
Copper must be aggressive without allowing Minnesota to force her into contested pull-up jumpers. The Lynx can use Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and multiple wing combinations to change the initial matchup and prevent Copper from becoming comfortable.
Alyssa Thomas provides the Mercury with their most complete offensive organizer. She leads Phoenix in assists and rebounding while creating scoring opportunities through drives, post touches, transition pushes, and passes from the middle of the floor.
Thomas becomes especially important against Minnesota because the Lynx apply pressure without regularly compromising their defensive structure. Phoenix needs Thomas to protect the ball, attack the paint, and locate shooters before Minnesota can recover.
Natasha Mack remains out with a foot injury, reducing Phoenix's available size and rim protection. Her absence also places additional rebounding responsibility on Thomas, DeWanna Bonner, Nia Coffey, and the Mercury's guards.
Sami Whitcomb is probable as Phoenix continues managing her return from a knee procedure. Whitcomb can provide perimeter spacing, but she remains in the process of rebuilding her conditioning and rhythm after a lengthy absence.
The Mercury need more production from their secondary options. Bonner, Valériane Ayayi, Monique Akoa Makani, and Coffey cannot allow Minnesota to load its defense toward Copper and Thomas on every possession.
Phoenix's defense presents the larger concern. The Mercury allowed Las Vegas to score 106 points despite several Aces starters playing reduced minutes. Minnesota does not have A'ja Wilson available, but the Lynx possess enough balanced scoring to attack every weak point in Phoenix's rotation.
Minnesota enters after defeating New York 90-85 in a physical game at Target Center. The Lynx built a 15-point advantage, lost the lead during a major third-quarter Liberty run, and then executed more effectively during the final minutes.
Kayla McBride led Minnesota with 25 points and made five three-pointers. She scored 14 points in the fourth quarter and repeatedly answered whenever New York threatened to take control.
McBride's shooting creates a difficult assignment for Phoenix. The Mercury must remain attached to her around screens without opening driving lanes for Olivia Miles or interior opportunities for Natasha Howard.
Miles continued her outstanding rookie season with 23 points, five rebounds, four assists, and four made three-pointers against New York. She has become Minnesota's leading scorer and primary offensive initiator while Napheesa Collier remains sidelined.
Miles can attack Phoenix through transition possessions, pick-and-rolls, and pull-up shooting. The Mercury have struggled to keep opposing guards out of the paint, and sending extra help toward Miles creates opportunities for McBride and Courtney Williams.
Howard added 16 points and nine rebounds against the Liberty. She gives Minnesota a dependable interior scorer, offensive rebounder, and defender who can switch onto smaller players without surrendering the paint.
Howard should receive repeated opportunities against a Phoenix frontcourt missing Mack. The Mercury can use Thomas and Coffey against her, but both players also carry important responsibilities elsewhere in the defensive game plan.
Collier remains out with an ankle injury, although she has been cleared to resume portions of practice. Minnesota has adapted impressively without its leading star, receiving increased production from Miles, McBride, Howard, Williams, and Coffey.
Emma Cechova is also out with a knee injury. The Lynx still possess enough frontcourt depth to control the matchup, particularly with Howard playing at a high level on both ends.
Minnesota's greatest advantage comes from its ability to create efficient offense without relying on one scorer. Miles can initiate, McBride can work away from the ball, Williams can control the middle of the floor, and Howard can attack the paint.
Phoenix must defend every stage of the possession. The Mercury cannot concentrate entirely on the initial ball handler because Minnesota moves the ball quickly and has enough shooting to punish late rotations.
The Lynx should also receive opportunities in transition. Phoenix's offensive struggles against Las Vegas produced several long rebounds and live-ball turnovers, allowing the Aces to attack before the Mercury could establish their defense.
Phoenix's best route is to keep the game competitive offensively. The Mercury need Copper to score efficiently, Thomas to approach a double-double, and Whitcomb or Bonner to provide enough shooting to prevent Minnesota from building another early double-digit lead.
Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis
Minnesota has won both meetings this season. The Lynx defeated Phoenix 88-84 on May 12 before producing a dominant 111-77 road victory on June 1.
The first meeting was competitive throughout. Howard finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Coffey made a late three-pointer that helped Minnesota protect a four-point victory.
The second meeting followed a completely different pattern. Minnesota controlled the pace, created efficient perimeter opportunities, and repeatedly punished Phoenix's defensive rotations during the 34-point victory.
The Lynx have already demonstrated that they can defeat Phoenix through two game scripts. They survived a close half-court battle during the first meeting and then overwhelmed the Mercury through pace and offensive balance in the rematch.
Phoenix did have success against Minnesota during the 2025 postseason. The Mercury won three consecutive playoff meetings, including an overtime victory and two controlled performances later in the series.
The current Minnesota lineup has responded by winning both regular-season meetings in 2026. Miles has changed the Lynx's offensive structure, while Howard and McBride have taken on larger responsibilities during Collier's absence.
Phoenix must prevent Minnesota from establishing early control. The Mercury have struggled to respond when opponents build large first-half advantages, and another slow start would allow the Lynx to manage the game without taking unnecessary offensive risks.
The spread has reached a demanding number, but Minnesota has already defeated Phoenix by 34 points this season. The Lynx also enter with substantially better spread results, while the Mercury have covered only eight of 23 graded games.
The total offers a more appealing position. Minnesota has reached at least 88 points in both meetings, and Phoenix needs only moderate offensive improvement from Saturday's performance to push the combined score above 169.5.
Game Thesis: Minnesota should control the game through its balanced perimeter attack, interior advantage, and superior defensive organization. Phoenix is unlikely to repeat its 58-point performance, particularly with Thomas, Copper, and Whitcomb capable of creating a better offensive response. The Lynx are projected to win 96-77, making over 169.5 the best bet.
Best Bet - Total: Over 169.5 (-102)
Minnesota has scored 88 and 111 points in its two victories over Phoenix this season. The Lynx should again generate efficient offense through Miles, McBride, Howard, and Williams against a Mercury defense coming off a 106-point performance by Las Vegas.
Phoenix does not need to approach 90 points for the over to cash. A Mercury total in the mid-to-high 70s creates a strong path if Minnesota reaches the low-to-mid 90s.
The Mercury should also produce a better offensive effort than they managed Saturday. Copper remains capable of carrying a high-volume scoring role, Thomas can create opportunities throughout the lineup, and Whitcomb's probable return adds another perimeter option.
Minnesota's 90-85 victory over New York showed that the Lynx can play above this number even against a strong defensive opponent. Phoenix has not defended at the same level as the Liberty, particularly during its current losing streak.
A projected 96-77 final produces 173 points. That result allows Minnesota to control the game while still leaving room above the current total.
Top Player Prop Picks for Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx
Olivia Miles Over 19.5 Points (+122): Miles scored 23 against New York and continues to carry a larger offensive role while Collier is sidelined. Phoenix has struggled to contain attacking guards, giving Miles opportunities to score through transition drives, pick-and-rolls, and pull-up threes.
Kayla McBride Over 15.5 Points (-138): McBride scored 25 points and made five three-pointers against the Liberty. Phoenix must devote significant attention to Miles and Howard, leaving McBride with opportunities around screens and after defensive rotations.
Natasha Howard Over 8.5 Rebounds (+104): Howard collected nine rebounds against New York and recorded 11 during Minnesota's first victory over Phoenix. Mack's absence reduces the Mercury's frontcourt size, giving Howard a favorable path to offensive rebounds and controlled defensive boards.
Prediction: Minnesota Lynx 96, Phoenix Mercury 77
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