Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty Picks and Prediction, Wednesday, September 17, 2025
Use Code WWWC It’s Game 2 in the first round of the WNBA playoffs on Wednesday, Sept. 17. Read our Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty prediction along with the rest of our best WNBA Predictions! The Liberty lead the 3-game series 1-0 after earning a big-time overtime victory against Phoenix on Sunday. The Mercury will look to bring the series back to Phoenix with a win in this matchup. The Liberty will try to close out the series and move to the next round with a win. These two teams will meet with tip-off set for 8 P.M. EST.
Phoenix will look to keep its season alive in Game 2
Phoenix is the No. 4 seed in the WNBA playoffs and they are behind after one game. The Mercury are 0-1 against the Liberty in this 3-game series as they look to keep their season alive and bring it back to Arizona.
The Liberty defeated the Phoenix 76-69 in overtime on Sunday, Sept. 14. The Mercury’s largest lead was just four points in the defeat. They held a 65-63 lead with under two minutes to play in regulation. The Liberty were able to tie it with 1:31 left in the game and Phoenix went on to miss their final two shots and turn the ball over, sending the game to OT. The Liberty dominated OT going on an 8-0 run to win the game. Phoenix was led in scoring by Kahleah Cooper with 15 points. Satou Sabally only scored 9 points on 2-for-17 shooting.
In the regular season, Satou Sabally led the team with 16.3 points per game. Alyssa Thomas was great in the regular season, grabbing a team-high 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game.
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Phoenix was averaging 84.7 points per game, ranking fifth-best in the regular season. They were the ninth-ranked shooting team, making 43.3% from the field. The Mercury were also the sixth-ranked 3-point team, hitting 34% from deep.
On defense, the Mercury were allowing 82 points per game, placing them eighth in the regular season. Phoenix is the fourth-ranked regular-season defense, giving up 42.7% from the field and 32.1% from behind the arc.
Phoenix did not cover in Game 1 against New York. They were 2-point underdogs and did not cover the spread. The under hit in the game with the total set at 164.
Phoenix was 21-22-1 against the spread in the regular season. They are 9-12-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Mercury are 3-1 against the spread versus the Liberty in the regular season. They were also 7-6 against the spread as an underdog. The under is 24-18-2 when Phoenix has played. The total is 2-2 during the four matchups versus Phoenix. The under is 11-6-2 during Phoenix road games.
There are no injuries listed for the Mercury in this game.
Liberty take Game 1 on the road in Phoenix
New York is the No. 5 seed and they will look to close out the first round of the playoffs with a win on Wednesday night. The Liberty took down Phoenix in the first-round game 76-69 in overtime on Sunday, Sept. 14.
Breanna Stewart tied the game at 65 with 1:31 left in the game. Neither team could score in the closing moments thanks to solid defense. In OT, the Liberty went on an 8-0 run to give them momentum and defeat Phoenix on the road. Natasha Cloud led the team with 23 points on 9-for-12 shooting. New York shot 41.7% and out-rebounded the Mercury 48-31 in the win.
During the regular season, New York was led in scoring by Breanna Stewart with 18.3 points per game. Jonquel Jones grabbed 8.1 rebounds per game to lead the roster. Sabrina Ioneascu, who also averaged 18.2 points per game, passed for a team-high 5.7 assists per game.
New York is averaging 84.4 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league. They are shooting 45.3% from the field, ranking fourth. The Liberty are the second-best 3-point shooting team, making 35.5% from behind the arc.
On defense, the Liberty are allowing 80.3 points per game, placing them fifth. They are forcing their opponents to shoot 42.4% from the field, ranking them third. New York is also the best 3-point defensive team, allowing opponents to shoot 31.5% from deep.
The Liberty covered as a 2-point favorite in the first round against the Mercury. The total was set at 164 and the under hit in the game despite the game going to overtime.
New York is 15-27-2 against the spread during the regular season. They went 11-10-2, gaining the spread at home. The Liberty were also 1-3 against the spread versus Phoenix. They are 14-20-1 against the spread as a favorite. The under is 25-18-1 when Liberty have played this year. The under is 15-7 when New York has played at home. The total is 2-2 when the Liberty have faced the Mercury.
Breanna Stewart is listed as a game-time decision with a knee injury.
Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Pick
Spread Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty
- New York Liberty -2.5 (5 Units)
The Liberty were in control for most of Game 1 on the road a few days ago. They took it to the Mercury once the game went to overtime. They are a much better team than their seed suggests. They will prove that behind one of the best home court advantages in the WNBA. There’s a key injury to the Liberty with Breanna Stewart being a game-time decision. Even if she is limited, role players stepped up in Game 1, and if they do once again, the Liberty will cruise to an easy win. The Mercury were frustrated by the Liberty’s defense and they couldn’t buy a bucket, shooting well below their regular-season average. Even if New York’s defense is slightly worse, it won’t be enough for the Mercury to overcome. Their scoring options are few and far between when their star players aren’t hitting.
Take the Liberty to cover.
Over/Under Pick for Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty
- Under 159.5 (5 units)
The Mercury and the Liberty were two of the fastest teams in the league in the regular season. But, they didn’t show it in their Game 1 showdown. The two teams were methodical and emphasized defense as the under hit despite the game going to overtime. With this game being a win-or-go-home game for Phoenix, I expect the Mercury to try and slow things down with strong defense. The Liberty may want to get out and run, but their defense is strong, too. Defensive emphasis will reign supreme in Game 2. The under was 15-7 when the Liberty played at home in the regular season. The under was also 11-6-2 for Phoenix road games.
Take the under on Wednesday.
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