Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Friday May 29 2026
Use Code WWWC The Phoenix Mercury head back to the Barclays Center on May 29, 2026, just two days after dropping a 10-point game in this same matchup, and the betting market is signaling another tough night for the road side. With New York's perimeter shooting clicking and Phoenix mired in a four-game losing streak, this rematch shapes up as another spot where the Liberty's offensive efficiency should carry the day. For more daily breakdowns and angles across the league, take a look at our latest WNBA picks as the schedule continues to deliver edge-driven matchups.
Quick Picks and Prediction
- Spread Pick: New York Liberty -5.5
- Total Pick: Lean Under 169.5
- Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 88, Phoenix Mercury 80
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Odds and Line Movement
The market on this rematch has been remarkably steady throughout the day, with the spread holding at New York -5.5 across multiple updates with juice mostly between -108 and -118 on each side. The total has bounced between 167.5 and 170.5 across various windows, eventually settling at 169.5 (-108) on the Over. Public action has been quiet on percentages but the consistent line stability suggests the books are confident in the current pricing. Below is the full breakdown of the available odds.
Opening Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | +6.5 (-112) | Over 170.5 (-108) |
| New York | -6.5 (-108) | Under 170.5 (-112) |
Current Odds
| Team | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix | +5.5 (-110) | Over 169.5 (-108) |
| New York | -5.5 (-110) | Under 169.5 (-112) |
Line Movement - Spread
| Date | Time | Phoenix | New York | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/29 | 02:27:01AM | 5½ -110 | -5½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 09:34:42PM | 5½ -102 | -5½ -118 | - |
| 05/28 | 07:49:02PM | 5½ -108 | -5½ -112 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:51:25PM | 5½ -112 | -5½ -108 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:51:19PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:50:47PM | 5½ -112 | -5½ -108 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:49:08PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:39:02PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:38:09PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:36:15PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:33:14PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:32:26PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:29:07PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:23:59PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 05:27:19PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:15:59PM | 5½ -110 | -5½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:49PM | 5½ -105 | -5½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:49PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:19PM | 6½ -118 | -6½ -102 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:19PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 05:01:59PM | 5½ -102 | -5½ -118 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:01:59PM | - | - | - |
| 05/27 | 11:28:29PM | 6½ -112 | -6½ -108 | - |
Line Movement - Total
| Date | Time | Over | Under | Public ($, #) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/29 | 08:21:32AM | 169½ -108 | 169½ -112 | - |
| 05/29 | 04:05:01AM | 168½ -115 | 168½ -105 | - |
| 05/29 | 02:27:01AM | 168½ -110 | 168½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:50:47PM | 168½ -105 | 168½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:50:47PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:49:34PM | 167½ -115 | 167½ -105 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:49:34PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:49:08PM | 168½ -105 | 168½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:39:02PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:38:09PM | 168½ -105 | 168½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:36:15PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:35:14PM | 168½ -110 | 168½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:34:50PM | 168½ -105 | 168½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:33:14PM | 168½ -110 | 168½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:32:27PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 06:29:06PM | 168½ -110 | 168½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 06:24:00PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:49PM | 168½ -110 | 168½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:09PM | 168½ -115 | 168½ -105 | - |
| 05/28 | 05:02:09PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 05:01:59PM | 169½ -110 | 169½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 12:30:29PM | 169½ -115 | 169½ -105 | - |
| 05/28 | 12:30:29PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 12:29:49PM | 170½ -105 | 170½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 12:29:49PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 12:27:09PM | 169½ -115 | 169½ -105 | - |
| 05/28 | 12:27:09PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 12:26:49PM | 170½ -105 | 170½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 12:26:49PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 12:25:39PM | 169½ -115 | 169½ -105 | - |
| 05/28 | 12:25:39PM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 07:53:49AM | 170½ -105 | 170½ -115 | - |
| 05/28 | 07:53:49AM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 07:31:59AM | 169½ -108 | 169½ -112 | - |
| 05/28 | 07:31:39AM | 169½ -110 | 169½ -110 | - |
| 05/28 | 07:31:39AM | - | - | - |
| 05/28 | 07:31:19AM | 170½ -108 | 170½ -112 | - |
Mercury vs Liberty Key Matchups and Handicap
This rematch comes just two days after New York beat Phoenix 84-74 on May 27, and the formula that worked in that game should travel directly to this matchup. Both teams shot 42% from the field in that meeting, but the Liberty's perimeter shooting and free-throw execution decided the game. New York hit 14 of 30 from three-point range for an excellent 47%, while Phoenix went 10-for-30 from deep. The free-throw line was even more lopsided: New York went a perfect 14-for-14 from the stripe, while Phoenix went just 14-for-22. Those margins are exactly the kind of edges that show up again in a quick rematch.
The full-season profile reinforces what we saw in that recent meeting. New York averages 88.0 points per game compared to Phoenix's 85.6, shoots 46% from the field versus Phoenix's 43%, and averages 22.1 assists per game compared to the Mercury's 18.1. Phoenix does hold small edges in rebounds, blocks, and steals, but the offensive efficiency gap matters far more against a Liberty team that just demonstrated it can slow the Mercury offense down. Defensive performance and shot-making at the rim and from the line are what win these games.
Kahleah Copper remains Phoenix's top scorer at 18.8 points per game and dropped 19 points in the recent matchup, while Alyssa Thomas continues to facilitate at 8.1 assists per game and posted nine assists in that game. For New York, Breanna Stewart drives the offense with 20.0 points and 8.6 rebounds per game, and Jonquel Jones grabbed 12 rebounds in the last meeting. Marine Johannes has been a key contributor as both a scorer and distributor, giving the Liberty multiple paths to attack despite missing some key pieces.
Betting Trends PHX vs NY
New York enters this rematch at 4-4 and coming off the 84-74 win over Phoenix on May 27, while the Mercury sit at 2-6 and have dropped four straight. That kind of form gap is significant in a quick turnaround matchup, especially when the recent head-to-head result already showed how the Liberty match up against this Mercury group. The market has held New York at -5.5 throughout the day with very little movement, suggesting the books are comfortable with that number despite some Liberty inconsistency overall.
New York has had its own ups and downs, losing three of their last five outside of the recent win, but Phoenix's losing streak and defensive issues are the more pressing concerns. The Mercury's inability to consistently defend the perimeter or get to the line at the same rate as opponents has been a recurring theme during the four-game skid, and that profile sets up perfectly for the Liberty's offensive style at home.
Key Injuries and Notes PHX vs NY
Phoenix is dealing with the absence of Sami Whitcomb due to a knee injury, which removes meaningful shooting depth and backcourt spacing from a team that already struggles to create open three-point looks consistently. With Whitcomb out, more of the offensive load falls on Copper and Thomas, which makes Phoenix more predictable for an opposing defense to scheme against.
New York is also navigating some absences. Sabrina Ionescu is out due to a back injury, and Marine Fauthoux is out with a knee injury. The Ionescu absence is significant because it removes elite shooting, ball-handling, and late-game shot creation from the Liberty's offensive arsenal. Despite that, New York still has enough frontcourt strength with Stewart and Jones, plus enough scoring balance from Johannes and others, to control this matchup at home.
Mercury vs Liberty ATS and Total Picks
- Spread Pick: New York Liberty -5.5 - The Liberty already beat Phoenix by 10 points on May 27 with the same key absences and the same matchup advantages, and a home rematch with Phoenix riding a four-game losing streak supports the favorite covering again.
- Total Pick: Lean Under 169.5 - The recent meeting produced 158 total points and both teams shot 42% from the field, suggesting the projected final score around 168 points lands just under the number.
Final Score Prediction
Expect Phoenix to come out with more urgency given the four-game skid, but New York's home crowd, perimeter shooting, and Stewart's matchup advantage in the frontcourt should give the Liberty enough separation in the middle quarters. Copper will do her part to keep Phoenix in striking distance, but the defensive coverage and ball-pressure schemes that worked in the first matchup will be even more effective on quick turnaround in the Liberty's building. New York pulls away in the second half and covers comfortably.
Final Score Prediction: New York Liberty 88, Phoenix Mercury 80
How to Bet Mercury vs Liberty
Betting a home favorite like New York -5.5 requires careful attention to line shopping given how stable the number has been. Most books have stayed at -5.5 throughout the day, but small juice differences can add up across multiple WNBA bets. Live betting is also a strong angle for this matchup, especially if Phoenix gets off to a fast start that nudges the Liberty spread to a more attractive number mid-game.
For bettors who prefer playing without committing real cash, social sportsbooks offer a strong alternative that lets you wager with sweeps coins or virtual currency. These platforms feature the same WNBA markets you'd find at traditional books, including spreads, totals, moneylines, and player props on names like Breanna Stewart, Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas, and Jonquel Jones, giving you a flexible and low-risk way to attack Mercury vs Liberty.
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