Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Picks, Prediction, Odds, and Line Movement for Thursday September 17 2026

Today’s Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire picks for Thursday, September 17, 2026, come from Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention and return from the World Cup break with heavily altered rotations, making price and availability more important than the standings alone.

Phoenix is favored by 3.5 points, with the total set at 172. Bettors reviewing Thursday’s WNBA picks should note that Portland is getting a better spread than the broader market despite owning the stronger ATS record. The available WNBA player props also require extra caution because both teams are missing high-usage players before the 10:00 PM EDT tipoff.

Best Available Odds for Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire

• Spread: Phoenix Mercury -3.5 | Portland Fire +3.5
• Total: 172

Game Info

• Date: Thursday, September 17, 2026
• Time: 10:00 PM EDT
• Location: Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
• TV: WNBA League Pass, Arizona’s Family 3TV, Fox 12 Plus and Merc+
• Key Availability: Phoenix has Kelsey Plum out for the season, while Kahleah Copper is questionable with a groin injury. Portland is without Bridget Carleton, Carla Leite, Megan DiLeo, Sania Feagin, Teja Oblak and Luisa Geiselsoder.

Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Preview

Phoenix enters at 14-26 after beating Toronto 101-69 in its final game before the break. The win ended a four-game losing streak but did not change the larger reality of a disappointing season.

The Mercury remain built around Alyssa Thomas and Copper. Thomas gives Phoenix its primary playmaking hub from the frontcourt, while Copper supplies the direct perimeter scoring needed to turn close games.

Copper’s status is therefore critical. She is questionable with a groin injury after also dealing with an ankle issue before the break.

Plum is already out for the season with a lower-leg injury. The deadline acquisition was intended to raise Phoenix’s offensive ceiling, but injuries prevented the move from having the desired impact.

Phoenix is 16-23 ATS in the current season numbers. That is one of the weaker spread records on Thursday’s slate.

The Mercury are also 9-10 ATS on the road, leaving little statistical reason to pay a premium on Phoenix simply because Portland’s lineup is depleted.

Portland enters at 16-24 and has also been eliminated. The Fire have lost four of their last five, but their market profile is much better than Phoenix’s.

Portland is 22-18 ATS overall and 11-9 ATS at home. The Fire have also gone 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games.

Those numbers matter because the current board gives Portland +3.5, a better number than the +2.5 available across much of the broader market.

The problem is personnel. Leite is out due to rest, Carleton is out with an ankle injury and DiLeo is out with a finger injury. Feagin, Oblak and Geiselsoder are also unavailable.

That is a significant amount of missing creation, shooting and frontcourt depth. Portland’s strongest argument is therefore the price rather than the roster.

The season series is tied 1-1.

Phoenix won the first meeting 78-72 on June 5. That game produced only 150 combined points.

Portland answered with an 88-85 win in Phoenix on August 16. The second meeting reached 173 points and showed the Fire could generate enough offense to win outright.

Those results produce very different totals outcomes but support Portland’s ability to stay competitive. The Fire have already beaten Phoenix once and lost the other game by only six.

The current +3.5 therefore gives Portland a useful middle ground. The Fire do not need another outright win; they only need to keep the game within one possession.

The spread opened around Phoenix -2.5 and has been as high as -4.5 at different books. The current -3.5 sits toward the expensive side for Mercury backers.

The total has undergone a much larger move. Early numbers were around 177.5 before the market crashed into the low 170s.

That movement makes sense because of the injuries, but it also means most of the obvious Under value has already disappeared.

Phoenix is 20-19 to the Over, while Portland is 22-18. Those records lean high, but they were accumulated with substantially healthier rosters.

Matchup Breakdown

Phoenix should run offense through Thomas and force Portland’s shortened rotation to defend multiple actions. If Copper plays, the Mercury gain a clear late-clock scoring advantage.

Portland needs to protect the ball and keep the game close enough for its home-court energy to matter in the fourth quarter. The Fire cannot afford a large early deficit with so few offensive creators available.

The WNBA betting trends favor Portland against the spread. The Fire are 22-18 ATS and 11-9 at home, while Phoenix is 16-23 overall.

The current price strengthens that case. Portland +3.5 is a full point better than the +2.5 available in much of the market.

The total is less attractive because it has already fallen roughly five points from the opener. Betting Under after that move requires accepting a much worse number.

This is also a spot where the spread is more forgiving than the total. Portland's depleted rotation can still defend, rebound and keep a game within one possession even if its offense becomes inconsistent. The total requires both teams to combine for a specific scoring environment despite major lineup uncertainty. Taking +3.5 instead allows Portland to benefit from a slower or messier game without needing to predict exactly how far the pace and efficiency fall. It is the cleaner way to price a game with this much rotation uncertainty. Game Thesis: Phoenix may have the best individual creator on the floor if Copper plays, but Portland owns the stronger ATS profile and receives a better +3.5 price than the broader market. Portland has already beaten Phoenix once and should remain competitive enough to stay inside one possession.

Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire Best Bet - Spread: Portland Fire +3.5

Portland is 22-18 ATS compared with Phoenix at 16-23.

The Fire are also 11-9 ATS at home and 7-3 ATS over their last 10, giving them the stronger betting profile despite a depleted roster.

The season series is tied 1-1, and Portland’s only loss came by six points.

Getting +3.5 rather than the broader +2.5 matters. Portland +3.5 is the preferred wager.

Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 84, Portland Fire 82