Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Picks and Prediction for Saturday, June 27, 2026
Use Code WWWC Scotiabank Arena in Toronto hosts a marquee WNBA afternoon matinee at 2:00 PM ET as the struggling Phoenix Mercury visit the hottest team in the league, the Toronto Tempo, who arrive riding a wave of momentum that includes one of the most extraordinary individual performances in WNBA history. Phoenix sit 6-13 on the season while Toronto have climbed back to 9-9 after a dominant 125-97 demolition of the Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday, a result in which Marina Mabrey tied the WNBA single-game scoring record with 53 points, shooting 17-of-28 from the field, 9-of-18 from three, and 10-of-12 from the free-throw line in just 32 minutes — one of the greatest individual performances in league history. Read on to find out who comes out on top in our Mercury vs. Tempo prediction. Get our top WNBA Predictions and increase your bankroll!
Toronto Tempo: Mabrey's Historic Night Sets the Stage
Mabrey tied the mark set by Liz Cambage for Dallas against New York on July 17, 2018, and by A'ja Wilson for Las Vegas at Atlanta on August 22, 2023, joining the most exclusive scoring club in WNBA history. The 53-point performance was not a fluke built on volume, it was a masterclass of shot-making from one of the league's most technically skilled perimeter players operating at a level nobody in professional women's basketball has ever sustained over a three-game stretch. Mabrey has totaled 113 points over her last three games, the most in a three-game span in WNBA history.
Tempo coach Sandy Brondello called it "the most amazing thing I've ever seen," referencing the performance in comparison to even Diana Taurasi, whose shooting ability she has overseen at the highest level throughout her coaching career. Mabrey credited her teammates and the offense Brondello has built around her: "Shoutout to Sandy for getting me in an offense where I can really thrive." Julie Allemand added 13 points and a career-high 14 assists in the win, the Belgian point guard whose pinpoint delivery to Mabrey's shooting pocket has been the engine of this offense all week. Mabrey is now fourth in the league in scoring and first in three-pointers made with 64, and her case for a first career All-Star appearance has never been stronger.
The -3.5 line has been covered by Toronto in four of their last five home games, a spread-covering record that reflects not just their talent but the advantage of playing in front of a sold-out, increasingly passionate Scotiabank Arena crowd that has embraced this expansion franchise as one of the city's own. The Tempo opened a nine-game homestand this week, and the energy heading into Saturday afternoon after Thursday's historic performance will give them an emotional and atmospheric edge that Phoenix, arriving as a road team with the worst record in the Western Conference, is not equipped to counter.
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Phoenix Mercury: Copper the Lone Bright Spot
One of the lone bright spots for a downright bad Mercury squad, Kahleah Copper has continued to make an impact as a scorer, averaging 19.7 points per game in 2026. Looking to remain a consistent source of offense for her team, the veteran guard is primed for a high-scoring evening against Toronto's defense, having dropped 20 or more points in four of her last five appearances. Copper's individual quality is not in question, her ability to create off the dribble and finish through contact makes her the most dangerous individual weapon Phoenix can deploy in Toronto, but the team around her has not provided enough supporting production to turn individual brilliance into collective wins.
Set to take on the worst defense in the WNBA, Copper is primed for a high-scoring outing against the Tempo, but the inverse of that observation cuts the other way equally. Toronto's offense, which just put up 125 points against the Sparks and shot 20-of-42 from three as a team, faces a Phoenix defense that has been one of the most porous units in the league all season. The Mercury's 6-13 record is a reflection of a team that has struggled with defensive rebounding, perimeter closeouts, and the kind of collective defensive communication that stops elite three-point shooting teams from getting into rhythm. Against Mabrey in the form of her life, those deficiencies are a recipe for another high-scoring Toronto performance.
The +3.5 line has not been covered by the Mercury in 13 of their last 20 games, a consistency of underperformance against the spread that makes backing Phoenix even against a favorable number a structurally unsound proposition. The one-game head-to-head between these teams earlier this season went to Toronto 98-90, giving the Tempo the psychological edge in a direct comparison.
Mercury vs. Tempo Picks
- Money Line Pick: Toronto Tempo
The Tempo have a golden opportunity to continue their push toward the WNBA Playoffs in their inaugural season as they host the Mercury in a Saturday afternoon clash. Toronto are the better team by record, by recent form, and by the individual quality advantage that Mabrey's historic stretch gives them over a Phoenix roster built around a single creator in Copper with limited supporting cast. The home crowd at Scotiabank Arena, riding the wave of Thursday's record-tying night, will generate an atmosphere that amplifies the Tempo's best basketball. Take Toronto on the moneyline.
- Over/Under Pick: Over 177.5
With the spread set at a measly 3.5 points, expect the Tempo to cover as they serve the Mercury their 14th loss of the season, and the total is the market where the sharpest value sits. Toronto just scored 125 points against the Sparks while shooting 20-of-42 from three as a team. Phoenix have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league all season. Mabrey is the hottest scorer in women's basketball on earth right now with 113 points across her last three games. Copper will put up her own numbers on the other end against Toronto's permeable defense. The Tempo's 125 points against the Sparks was the highest total the WNBA has seen in a regulation game this season, and the conditions that produced that output are largely unchanged on Saturday. Take the Over 177.5.
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