Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Picks and Prediction for Sunday, August 9, 2026

The Phoenix Mercury visit the Washington Mystics on Sunday at 3:00 PM ET at CareFirst Arena. Phoenix is 12-21, seventh in the Western Conference and 13.5 games behind Minnesota after Friday’s 75-72 loss at Connecticut. The Mercury have lost two straight and three of their last five. Washington is 18-12, third in the Eastern Conference and 0.5 games behind Atlanta and Indiana after beating Atlanta 79-74. The Mystics have won six straight overall and five consecutive home games. Phoenix is a 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 169.5. Build your bankroll with our free WNBA picks

Phoenix Mercury Looking to End Two-Game Slide

Phoenix averages 84.2 points while shooting 44.4% from the field and 32.4% from 3-point range. The Mercury average 19.8 assists and 12.8 turnovers per game. Kahleah Copper leads the offense with 21.0 points while shooting 43.7%, while Alyssa Thomas contributes 15.1 points, 7.3 rebounds and 8.4 assists. DeWanna Bonner adds 10.3 points and 6.0 rebounds. Phoenix has topped 90 points in three of its last five games but scored only 72 against Connecticut on Friday.

The Mercury allow 87.6 points per game, with opponents shooting 46.3% from the field and 37.0% from beyond the arc. Phoenix averages 7.2 steals and 3.3 blocks but is being outrebounded 33.9 to 31.3 per game. The Mercury are 7-11 away from home and have allowed at least 89 points in three of their last five games.

Injuries: Shay Ciezki (Out, Coach’s Decision), Kara Dunn (Out, Coach’s Decision), Jovana Nogic (Out for Season, Not Injury Related).

Washington Mystics Carry Six-Game Winning Streak

Washington averages 81.7 points while shooting 43.7% from the field and 29.3% from 3-point range. Sonia Citron leads the Mystics with 17.1 points and 3.8 assists, while Shakira Austin averages 15.9 points and a team-high 9.5 rebounds. Kiki Iriafen contributes 15.1 points and 9.1 rebounds, giving Washington two productive options around the basket. The Mystics have scored at least 79 points in each of their last five games, including 100 against Las Vegas and 96 against Dallas.

The Mystics allow only 83.2 points per game, second-lowest in the WNBA, with opponents shooting 42.8% from the field and 32.5% from 3-point range. Washington also holds a major rebounding advantage in this matchup, averaging 37.2 boards compared with Phoenix’s 31.3. The Mystics are 10-6 at home and have won their last five at CareFirst Arena, allowing 84 points or fewer in three of those victories.

Key Player Matchup

Alyssa Thomas vs Sonia Citron

Thomas gives Phoenix production across several categories, averaging 15.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.4 steals. Citron leads Washington with 17.1 points while adding 3.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.2 steals. Thomas has the clear advantage as a distributor and rebounder, while Citron is Washington’s leading scorer and shoots 89.2% from the free-throw line. Their ability to create scoring chances for themselves and teammates should be important Sunday.

Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Game Pick

• Washington Mystics +1.5

Washington is the pick as a home underdog despite Phoenix being favored by 1.5 points. The Mystics have won six straight and five consecutive games at CareFirst Arena, while Phoenix has lost two straight and three of five. Washington also owns the stronger defensive numbers, allowing 83.2 points per game compared with Phoenix’s 87.6, and has a sizable 37.2-to-31.3 rebounding advantage. With Austin and Iriafen combining for 18.6 rebounds per game, Washington has enough inside production and current form to cover the 1.5-point spread.

Phoenix Mercury vs Washington Mystics Over/Under Pick

• Under 169.5

The under 169.5 is the pick with Washington’s defense providing the strongest reason. The Mystics allow only 83.2 points per game and have held three of their last five opponents to 84 points or fewer. Phoenix enters after scoring just 72 at Connecticut, while Washington averages 81.7 points and has stayed below 100 in four straight games. The teams combine to average 165.9 points, which sits below Sunday’s number. Washington’s strong defensive record and Phoenix’s recent 72-point performance make the under 169.5 the play.