Phoenix Mercury vs. Washington Mystics Prediction and Picks – September 4, 2025
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The WNBA regular season is nearing its conclusion, and the Washington Mystics (16-25) host the Phoenix Mercury (26-14) on Thursday. Check out our Mystics vs Mercury prediction.
Looking for the best bets and free picks for Thursday? You are in the right place.
Phoenix has the edge in the season series, going 2-1 straight up and against the spread when facing Washington.
Mercury Rising
The Phoenix Mercury are riding a five-game winning streak and sit in a three-way tie for second place in the WNBA standings. Following Thursday’s trip to Washington D.C., Phoenix will face Connecticut on the road, Los Angeles at home, and Dallas on the road.
The Mercury are coming off a three-game homestand with victories over Chicago, New York, and Indiana. Leading the way this season is Satou Sabally, averaging 16.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game. She is followed by Kahleah Copper at 16 points per game and Alyssa Thomas, who averages 16 points, 9.2 assists, and 8.9 rebounds. This trio has combined to miss 20 games this year, but when healthy, they make Phoenix a strong sleeper contender for the WNBA title. 
Mystics Struggling
After flirting with a playoff spot for most of the season, the Washington Mystics have collapsed and are now on a seven-game losing streak. Their postseason hopes are gone, but the franchise is building for the future. Rookies Sonia Citron (15.1 points, 4.0 rebounds per game) and Kiki Iriafen (13.1 points, 8.6 rebounds) are providing reasons for optimism.
Against the spread, Washington is just 2-5 during their current skid.
ATS Pick: Phoenix -9
We have one of the league’s hottest teams facing one of the coldest, making it hard to justify backing Washington. Phoenix dealt with injuries throughout the season but is now healthy and pushing for the No. 2 seed. With the Mystics on a losing and non-covering streak, another double-digit Mercury win looks likely.
Total: Under 158.5
Phoenix has been locked in defensively, with five of their last six games finishing under the total. The Mercury should deliver another strong defensive effort against a Washington team that has been held below 70 points in four of its last seven games. The Mystics rank last in both made three-pointers and three-point percentage, and their slow-paced offense will struggle to keep up. The under is the play.
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